This article is part of our The Daily Puck series.
At this stage of the season, the statistical sample is large enough to take a critical look and find some outliers that likely don't correlate with what is actually happening on the ice. In particular, San Jose stands out as a team generating plenty of offensive chances but not capitalizing in the goal column as frequently as it should.
Specifically, the Sharks' 12.23 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes rank fifth in the league. However, they've scored just 2.61 goals per game (19th) with a 21st-ranked 8.65 shooting percentage.
With an aging veteran core, the lack of offensive efficiency could reflect a deterioration of skill. But the Sharks also have two solid players in their prime (Logan Couture and Marc-Edouard Vlasic) and a pair of hot-shot rookies (Timo Meier and Kevin Labanc). San Jose should begin to score more going forward as puck luck shifts to their favor more frequently.
While the Sharks aren't going to morph into the mid-80's Oilers overnight, a slight statistical correction should help the fantasy value of their go-to players from here out. It might actually prove to be Martin Jones who gains the most in our virtual games, though. An extra goal or two weekly through the end of the season should prove to help the netminder in the wins column. The 27-year-old goalie could prove to be a sneaky buy-low grab capable of propelling your team up the standings.
Featured Matchups
Senators (PP: 18 PK: 14) at Blue Jackets (PP: 1, PK: 8), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Mike Condon (11-7-3, 2.46, .914), Sergei Bobrovsky (27-6-2, 1.97, .932)
Key Injuries:Zach Werenski (illness), Craig Anderson (personal), Andrew Hammond (ankle)
Ottawa is currently holding onto the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and has a few games in hand on the teams trailing them. Columbus, of course, is atop the entire league and owns a league-best plus-49 goal differential. However, the Blue Jackets have gone 3-4 with 22 goals allowed since the 16-game winning streak ended. Also, don't underestimate Ottawa in this spot, either. They've topped Pittsburgh at home last Thursday and outgunned St. Louis at Scottrade Center on Tuesday. Stll, having Bobrovsky back at full health is certainly encouraging for Columbus. The Vezina candidate has lost a single game since Nov. 29 with a .936 save percentage, 1.79 GAA and 16 wins.
Rangers (PP: 5, PK: 16) at Maple Leafs (PP: 2, PK: 5), 7:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Henrik Lundqvist (18-2-1, 2.89, .902), Frederik Andersen (19-9-7, 2.67, .918)
Key Injuries:Jesper Fast (upper body), Matt Puempel (concussion), Antti Raanta (lower body), Marc Staal (concussion), Morgan Rielly (lower body)
The Rangers and Maple Leafs bring plenty of firepower to the table and rank second and third in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes in league, respectively. The Rangers are coming off an 7-6 loss to Dallas on Tuesday, whereas Toronto continued its exceptional run Tuesday -- now sporting an active 9-1-1 record -- with a 4-3 win over Buffalo. Lundqvist has been struggling mightily with a .841 save percentage and 4.91 GAA through six January starts, but the Rangers have also allowed the third-most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (12.04) over their past 25 games. It's difficult to shift too much blame on the goalie. Averaging 22:51 minutes per game entering Tuesday's contest, Rielly's injury is concerning for Toronto. While his absence will be felt, it could also provide a fantasy boost for Jake Gardiner and Nikita Zaitsev.
Capitals (PP: 14, PK: 3) at Blues (PP: 7, PK: 4), 8:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Braden Holtby (21-8-4, 1.96, .930), Jake Allen (17-11-3, 2.76, .900)
Key Injuries:John Carlson (lower body)
The Capitals are hot. They've averaged 4.56 goals per game in January and boast an active 16-2-3 record dating back to early December. Justin Williams has been a huge contributor with 13 goals and 21 points during the stretch, and Evgeny Kuznetsov has also posted a point-per-game mark during the surge (two goals and 19 assists). St. Louis, on the other hand, has been rather mediocre with a 4-4 record in January while allowing 3.13 goals per game. Additionally, losing 6-4 to Ottawa on home ice Tuesday was a stinger. Washington is coming off their own high-scoring loss Tuesday, though, as Pittsburgh topped the Caps 8-7 in overtime. Look for the St. Louis goalie tango to continue unless Allen has a solid outing Thursday.
Other Matchups
Stars (PP: 19, PK: 29) at Islanders (PP: 28, PK: 21), 7:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Kari Lehtonen (9-12-4, 2.86, .900), Thomas Greiss (11-7-2, 2.41, .925)
Key Injuries:Ales Hemsky (hip), Mattias Janmark (knee), Johnny Oduya (lower body), Jamie Oleksiak (hand), Cal Clutterbuck (undisclosed), Travis Hamonic (knee), Andrew Ladd (undisclosed)
Dallas held off the Rangers in a 7-6 back-and-forth battle Tuesday, and now land in a potentially cushy matchup against the Islanders. New York has allowed the most scoring chances per 60 minutes (32.69) in the league, after all. Radek Faksa is making noise in the points column with nine marks over his past seven games. However, he also has just one goal, five shots and an average of only eight seconds of power-play time during the span. Be wary of overvaluing the sophomore.
Coyotes (PP: 24, PK: 26) at Wild (PP: 13, PK: 6), 8:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Louis Domingue (5-11-1, 3.14, .900), Devan Dubnyk (23-8-3, 1.85, .937)
Key Injuries:Max Domi (hand), Martin Hanzal (personal), Brad Richardson (leg), Jonas Brodin (finger)
The Coyotes allowed six goals during a loss to the Jets on Wednesday, and now land in a daunting road matchup against Minnesota. The Wild will be looking to avenge Tuesday's loss the Devils, and also enter this soft matchup against Arizona with an active 17-2-1 record over their past 20 games. Eric Staal's 2.85 points per 60 minutes rank 6th among all skaters with at least 800 minutes this season. It's been an impressive bounce-back showing.
Predators (PP: 16, PK: 13) at Flames (PP: 11, PK: 15), 9:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Pekka Rinne (16-12-6, 2.36, .921), Chad Johnson (16-10-1, 2.24, .923)
Key Injuries:Micheal Ferland (lower body), Garnet Hathaway (upper body), Roman Josi (undisclosed), P.K. Subban (upper body), Colin Wilson (undisclosed)
The Predators were shutout in Vancouver on Tuesday, which snapped a three-game winning streak. Nashville has morphed into an excellent defensive club and have allowed the fewest high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (8.08) in the league. Calgary is 7-4-1 over its past 12 games, and the Matthew Tkachuk-Mikael Backlund-Michael Frolik line has combined to post 15 goals, 39 points and 75 shots during the span. For the year, they also boast an impressive 57.8 scoring chances for percentage and 60.05 Corsi For percentage.
Avalanche (PP: 27, PK: 24) at Ducks (PP: 10, PK: 10), 10:00 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Calvin Pickard (7-11-1, 3.06, .902), John Gibson (18-10-8, 2.29, .921)
Key Injuries:Simon Despres (head), Clayton Stoner (abdomen), Nate Thompson (achilles), Erik Johnson (leg), Semyon Varlamov (groin)
Colorado has an active 4-19-1 record dating back to late November, and during the span the Avalanche have generated the fewest scoring chances (21.47) and high-danger scoring chances (7.82) per 60 minutes in the league. Nathan MacKinnon has two goals, five points and 13 shots through his past four games, which is slightly encouraging. Anaheim, meanwhile, is 7-1-1 in January and allowed just 11 goals all month. Additionally, the Ducks are a rock-solid 15-5-3 at the Honda Center this year, and 66-27-12 dating back to the 2014-15 campaign.
Lightning (PP: 4, PK: 20) at Sharks (PP: 22, PK: 9), 10:30 p.m.
Expected Goalies:Ben Bishop (11-10-3, 2.64, .910), Aaron Dell (4-2-0, 1.96, .929)
Key Injuries:Logan Couture (illness), Dylan DeMelo (wrist), Joonas Donskoi (upper body), Tomas Hertl (knee), J.T. Brown (face), Ryan Callahan (hip), Victor Hedman (illness), Brayden Point (upper body), Steven Stamkos (knee)
San Jose is a winning streak away from climbing into the driver's seat of the Pacific Division. Additionally, after scoring 2.89 goals per game last season (fourth highest in the league), the Sharks are averaging a 19th-ranked 2.61 this year. A 21st-ranked 8.65 shooting percentage likely has positive regression ahead, so look for San Jose to start having better puck luck. The Lightning are in the middle of a six-game road trip and this is the final leg of the three-game swing through California. Bishop might have to win this one on his own, as Tampa Bay is averaging just 2.13 goals per game in January.
Recommended Pickups
Jake Guentzel, F, PIT: The AHL goal leader is now up with the big club and flanking Evegni Malkin. Through his first sseven NHL games, Guentzel has scored four goals and registered two helpers. He's also thrown six hits in consecutive games and saw a jump in ice time (15:30) during Wednesday's win over Montreal. It might be premature to call Guentzel a universal grab, but he's fully on the radar in deeper settings. Being attached to a high-scoring offense has plenty of fantasy perks.
Anders Nilsson, G, BUF: If you've been listening to the RotoWire Fantasy Hockey Podcast this season, you'll know AJ Scholz has been clamoring for Nilsson to take over the Buffalo crease throughout the year. Nilsson might have his shot now. Robin Lehner made a few poor judgement calls Tuesday against Toronto, which should open the door for Nilsson to have a better chance to earn more starts. Lehner first poised for a selfie with two female fans during a television timeout with the score 2-2, and then when he was pulled after the third goal, the netminder was visibly angry with the decision and insured head coach Dan Bylsma heard about it. There might not be consequences to Lehner's actions, but Nilsson is still worth a speculative flier for a goalie starved club, and especially with Buffalo having a back-to-back set up next on the docket.
