The Z Files: Win the League, Not the Draft

Target drafting is a common ploy. You look at historical standings from your league then determine your target in each category. The idea being, if you hit your targets, you'll end up with ample points to win your league. Sounds logical, right?

Here's the problem. Ask each team employing the tactic how they fared, and every one will contend they nailed their targets and finished on top of their projected standings. Here's my impressed look.

There's so many flaws with this line of thinking, starting with basing results on biased projections. Of course you'll finish higher. You're choosing players you have projected to do better, while players projected to do worse land on other teams.

Another major error is ignoring in-season management. On the average, between 75 and 90 percent of end-of-season totals are acquired on draft day. That leaves a lot added via in-season transactions, production that can propel your team up, or push it down the standings. Not to mention, most leagues allow activations from a reserve list, completely skewing initial pitching standings.

This in-season consideration has further repercussions. Often, to hit a target, a lesser player is chosen in lieu of a better player. You have 26 weeks to manage categories into maximum points. Why saddle yourself with a lesser player so you win the draft? Isn't the objective to win the league?

Earlier this week, I partnered with Lawr Michaels, representing Mastersball, in the Fantasy Sports Trade Association League. You know what? We didn't even win the draft. Am I worried? No, absolutely not.

After the draft, I suspected the team was light on power. I usually don't do this, because as just explained, I'm not interested in the projected results. But for the good of this column, I ran the draft through my standings generator (hey, just because I don't use it doesn't mean others don't want it, and I'm a people person).

Sure enough, the Mastersball entry placed in a mere fourth place, with home runs being one of the weakest categories. However, we lead the league in batting average. This goes against my team construction philosophy. As I've written and talked about extensively, counting stats (especially homers) are key to fantasy success, while batting average can be sacrificed if necessary.

For those interested, the draft is available HERE as well as on-demand on the SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Channel. Trust me, it's a great listen.

I'm not going to lie. I'm not happy with how the team is constructed. There are two picks for which I'm experiencing buyer's remorse: Dustin Pedroia, drafted in Round 9, and Adrian Gonzalez nabbed three rounds later. In a vacuum, both are worthy of that spot. That is, their expected contributions are more than commensurate with when they were taken. The problem is, batting average is a major component of their production, whereas more homers (or steals) would have been better.

A plausible alternate path would have been opting for Jake Lamb instead of Pedroia, then snagging Jonathan Schoop and not Gonzalez. The same positions would have been filled in reverse order, since Gonzalez occupied corner infield. Here's how the categories and projected points flesh out in the different scenarios.

Category Totals

Points

Here's where it gets interesting. In a vacuum, my numbers have Gonzalez and Pedroia at a combined $30 (in auction terms) as compared to only $25 for Schoop and Lamb. The less valuable players availed one more point. Would the alternate plan have been better?

If the objective was to win the draft, the answer is obvious. Since the goal is to win the league, I'm not so sure.

Many prefer being flush in batting average, as that buffers in-season acquisitions who provide helpful counting stats and a low average. While it's not my favorite path, it's certainly viable. Lending more validity to this approach is that a 13-team league will have a plush free agent pool, especially one drafting so early.

Okay, so I've justified, or maybe rationalized, Pedroia and Gonzalez. The larger question is if I'm being unduly obstinate by not tracking totals and standings in real time at the table to make my point that the goal is to win the league, not the draft.

There is no right or wrong. Actually, there is. The right approach is the one with which you're most comfortable. If tracking categories helps keep your mind at ease, more power to you.

However, I'm sticking to focusing more on the available player pool and where I want to go next. Was this squad my ideal roster construction? No, it wasn't. Is there enough to work with to overcome the perceived deficit? Unequivocally, the answer is yes. I'm looking forward to matching wits with my industry colleagues this summer.

The epilogue is: regardless of your strategy, it should be designed to win the league. Ask any of the participants, they all feel they won the draft. Only one will be right.