Regan's Rumblings: Sleepers and Busts

In certain situations in life, there are simply expectations that need to be met. If I'm going to a Duran Duran concert and I don't hear "Hungry Like the Wolf", I'm going to blow a gasket. If I order a fast food burger, they better ask if I want fries with that. Finally, if I'm watching re-runs of "Diff'rent Strokes" and I don't hear Gary Coleman do his "Whatchutalkingbout Willis?", that's 22 minutes of my life I'll never get back. Same thing here. As a baseball analyst, I'm morally required to share lists of my sleepers and busts for the coming year. Not all of us agree 100 percent on where we project guys (what fun would that be?), and I expect you'll disagree with these as well, and that's fine too. To me, sleepers and busts are simply guys I expect to outperform or underperform their current projected draft position. If you see a "hot" or "big" name in the bust section, that doesn't mean I don't like them and won't ever draft them. I just don't see the value in where they're being ranked at this point.

Sleepers

Jose Peraza, 2B, CIN – Well the cat is probably out of the bag on this one with the news of the Brandon Phillips trade, but you may still be able to attract surplus value out of Peraza. He qualifies at shortstop and outfield, and second base in many leagues (12 games there in 2016), too. The rebuilding Reds will give him every opportunity to push for 600 plate appearances. Peraza hit .355 in his final 172 at-bats, and though he has less value in OBP leagues given his low walk rate, he should hit enough to be a candidate for 40-plus stolen bases. Our current rankings have Peraza at #159 and Dee Gordon at #123. That's a three-round difference, and though there may be more risk with Peraza, I'll take Peraza in that scenario. Both seem a bit low really.

Joc Pederson, OF, LAD – Yasiel Puig was another option for a Dodger outfield sleeper, but I expect Pederson to take another step forward this year. Compared to 2015, the center fielder improved in several areas last year, including batting average (.210 to .246), K% (29.1% to 27.3%), and isolated slugging (.206 to .249). That said, his strikeout rate did rise in the second half last year and he struggled to the tune of .125/.250/.219 versus southpaws. Still, he's the team's best defensive option in CF by far, so I think he'll get an early chance at redemption versus LHP, though Dave Roberts could quickly turn to a guy like Trayce Thompson or Franklin Gutierrez as Pederson's platoon mate.

Anthony Rendon, 3B, WAS – Former top prospect, top-six draft pick, double-digit stolen bases, and still just 26. Rendon has many of the characteristic I look for in a potential breakout player. If he keeps up his three-year trend of only being healthy in even years, I'm in trouble, but he did get through 2016 just fine. With the addition of Adam Eaton and a full year of Trea Turner at the top of the lineup, Rendon looks to be in line for his first 100 RBI season out of the five-hole. I don't see him jumping to Dozier HR levels, but with his eye improved fly ball rate last year (43.8%), a 30-100 season isn't out of the question.

Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA – Is this the year Stanton finally becomes UNDER-rated? I think it could be. A former first-round lock, we currently have Stanton at #57 in our rankings, putting him in fifth-round territory in 12-team leagues. Entering his age-27 season, it would appear that all that stands between Stanton and a career year is his health. A full season of Dee Gordon and continued progress from Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Christian Yelich should help the lineup around Stanton, but he'll need to improve upon the 29.9% K% he put up in each of the last two seasons to hit much more than .250. The talent is there for a .290-45-120 season, but, as reflected in his relatively low ranking this year, there's plenty of risk. I just don't see how you could pass on Stanton if he's there in the fourth round.

Addison Russell, SS, CHC – Russell took a small step forward last year, improving year-over-year from .242/.307/.389 to .238/.321/.417 and improving his HR total from 13 to 21 in 65 more PA's. There were other encouraging signs however, including a 1st/2nd half K% split of 24.6%/20.1% and 32.2%/43.8% for his fly ball rate. That batting average is going to scare folks off, but if you miss out on the Corey Seager types and need a shortstop several round later, Russell is a good upside play. I liked seeing his K% drop from 2015's 28.5% to 22.6% last year, and in a stacked lineup, a shortstop with .260-30-100 upside is pretty valuable.

Yu Darvish, SP, TEX – Darvish dealt with neck and shoulder injuries in last year's return from Tommy John surgery, but all in all, he looked "back", particularly after the All-Star break. Overall, Darvish's 2.8 BB/9 was the best mark of his career, and given that control/command is often elusive in the TJ recovery period, there's lots to be optimistic about. Remember, this is a guy that recorded 277 strikeouts in 2013. I think he's a top-10 starter.

Brandon Drury, 2B/3B/OF, ARI – The other options (Chris Owings, Nick Ahmed, and Ketel Marte) are unappealing, so look for Drury to win the second base job this spring. Give him 500 at-bats, and I think he'll hit 20 homers and bat in the .280s. The multi-position eligibility is also very appealing, and if he can lower his 20% K% to the 15% or so levels he put up in the minors, Drury could even approach a .300 BA.

Zack Greinke, SP, ARI – Oblique and shoulder injuries caused this $206.5 million dollar free agent to have the worst season of his career, much to the glee of Dodgers fans everywhere. Greinke is reportedly healthy this spring and should be in line for a much-improved 2017. Coming off a 1.66 ERA season in 2015, we have Greinke ranked 31st among starting pitchers, so if he can get back to an ERA more in the 2.50 range, he'll provide positive value.

Lance McCullers, SP, HOU – Shoulder and elbow injuries limited McCullers to just 14 starts and probably contributed to his 5.0 BB/9. McCullers exhibited control issues in the minors as well, but in 22 starts for the Astros in 2015, his BB/9 was much better at 3.1. He's already thrown a bullpen session this spring and it is expected that he'll enter camp at 100 percent health. Assuming that's true, McCullers has true ace potential. The only question is whether we should take the over or the under on 160 innings.

Byron Buxton, OF, MIN – After hitting .305/.359/.568 in Triple-A last year, Buxton disappointed in the big leagues for the second consecutive season, batting just .225/.284/.430 with 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases in 331 PA's. That said, there's still quite a bit to like of course. This will be his age-23 season, so his best years remain ahead of him. Buxton provides even more optimism for a 2017 breakout season when you look at what he did in September after being called back up from Triple-A — .277/.340/.596 with seven home runs in 94 at-bats. He's stolen as many as 53 bases in a season, though that was in the minors when he was getting on base more than 40 percent of the time. We have Buxton projected at .240/.295/.436 with 17 homers and 27 steals. His upside, though, could be more in the .270/.350/.470 range with 20-plus homers and 30-plus stolen bases.

Busts

Note: "Bust" is not the right term for these guys, but since it's an industry standard, I'll leave it here. I don't think all these guys are going to be complete busts. It's just that some carry too much risk for me to draft them at or near their current ADP.

Gary Sanchez, C, NYY – 25-30 home runs appear very reasonable, but Sanchez isn't hitting anywhere near .299/.376/.657 again. Overall he hit just .189 versus southpaws, and after his scorching start, also batted just .222 after August 28. Given a full offseason for opposing teams to watch video of his at-bats, the opportunity for significant regression is there. You don't hit 20 home runs in 53 games without having a lot of power, but before we all declare him to be the second coming of Johnny Bench and a .300-40-120 guy, let's see how he adjusts once opposing teams adjust to him.

Trea Turner, SS, WAS – I love what Turner brings to the plate with potentially 20-plus homers and 40-50 stolen bases, but I prefer someone a bit more proven with my first draft pick. Those stolen bases are awfully tempting, but expect some struggles from a guy who walked just 4.3 percent of the time last year and likely won't be able to sustain last year's .391 BABIP.

Brian Dozier, 2B, MIN – In each of the last four seasons compared to the year prior, Dozier has hit a higher percentage of fly balls while simultaneously seeing a higher percentage of fly balls go for home runs. That culminated in last year's 42 homers. He hit an equal amount (21) on the road versus at home, too, displaying versatility. Incredibly, he's also improved his hard-hit percentage from 21.9 percent in 2012 to 34.7 percent last year. Most projections have him dropping to the 25-30 homer range, though we have him at 34. Maybe Dozier is actually underrated at this point, but spending a second round pick on a guy who could hit .230 with 25 homers and 15 stolen bases seems a bit ill-advised.

Clayton Kershaw, SP, LAD – My heart says that he'll make 34 starts, post a 1.50 ERA, and strike out another 300 batters while winning the NL Cy Young and tossing a pair of shutouts in the World Series. Realistically though, owners are drafting Kershaw at #1 or #2 overall, and if you guaranteed he'd make 30-plus starts and toss 210-220 innings, that may make sense. Realistically, Kershaw's back issues have resulted in two seasons of 27 or fewer starts in two of the last three years, and perhaps it's time to start wondering if we'll see a decline. He should be okay, but at 1 or 2 in my draft, I need more assurance.

Trevor Story, SS, COL – 35 homers and an average in the .260 range seems to be the consensus, and that's led to us ranking Story as a late second-round pick. Add in 10-15 steals, and that's a reasonable position to draft him, but those strikeouts are alarming. Story whiffed in 31.3% of this plate appearances last year while posting a .344 BABIP, so if that BABIP trends down a bit and the strikeouts continue, you may be looking at a .230 hitter. Fortunately, however, Story's 44.9% hard hit rate was second only to David Ortiz (45.9%) among all players with 400-plus at-bats last year. Still, there's a bit too much downside for me to invest a second round pick.

David Dahl, OF, COL – We have Dahl pegged in the seventh-round range for now, but there are questions as to whether he'll make the big club out of camp. We posted a note in late January that Dahl would be competing with Gerardo Parra for the left field job, so while Dahl is the superior offensive talent, this could be a battle. In Dahl's favor, he did hit .313 in 48 at-bats versus southpaws last year, but he'll have to improve on his 0.25 BB/K ratio to lock in the job long-term.

Johnny Cueto, SP, SF – After recording just 11 starts in 2013, Cueto has stayed healthy the last three seasons, recording 98 starts. So why is he on this side of the article? It's hard to put my finger on it. Cueto finished last year strong, posting a 1.78 ERA in September before dominating the Cubs in the Division series with eight innings of one-run ball and 10 strikeouts in a 1-0 loss. He did lose a full 1.1 mph off his fastball last year, so that's one thing, but plenty of guys have still produced despite declining velocity. He'll probably be fine, but at some point (this year?), don't those innings have to catch up to him?

Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS – 2014 Strasburg is a top-10 starter given his 242 strikeouts, but over the past two seasons, the 28-year-old has tallied just 47 starts due to injuries. His ERA has risen in each of the last three years. What really concerns me in terms of his effectiveness is Strasburg's offseason proclamation that he would throw his slider far less than the 17.1% of the time he threw it in 2016. That pitch graded well above average, but Strasburg apparently believes throwing it less will keep him healthier. I know two other things here as well: I won't be drafting him AND his signing a seven-year $175 million contract prior to hitting free agency will be the best decision of his life.

Ian Desmond, OF, COL – I didn't plan on having a bunch of Rockies hitters here, but that's the way it worked out obviously. The move to Coors Field obviously doesn't hurt Desmond's value, but now that he no longer qualifies at shortstop, he's just another outfielder who will hit 20-25 home runs. His batting average is anyone's guess, as while he hit .285 last year and Coors SHOULD help, but Desmond also batted .233 in 2015 and .255 in 2014. He's swiped 20 or more bases in five of the last six seasons, but at age 31, is that going to continue? I'll probably avoid him for the most part.