The Z Files: Composite Rankings Update

We recently refreshed the 2017 Rotowire Composite Rankings. After each update, I like to see where I stand with my esteemed colleagues. As usual, there are some disagreements, affording us the opportunity to dig deeper into some players. Sometimes I discover something I missed previously, and make an adjustment. Other times, I stand by my analysis. Here's some players where TZ's rankings differ from the panel.

Trea Turner (TZ 21, Composite 19)

OK, the discrepancy here isn't that significant, but I want an excuse to get something off my chest. Yes, it's another Z Files hot take. Similar to Carlos Correa last season, there's a faction in the industry that feels it's their job to be the pessimist, to incessantly preach "he's never done it before". On the other side, there's a segment that fashions themselves as anti-establishment, pushing Turner up the ranks using their middle finger. One side is rooting for Turner to fail, not because that's how they feel, but rather to justify their philosophy. The other is pulling for him to go off, not because they feel he will, but rather to flip the bird to the basement-dwelling spreadsheet huggers that don't actually watch games.

Confession time: I'm beginning to wonder if I'm one of those that are being overly cautious with Turner. My projection system landed him at .271 with 14 homers and 45 steals in 676 plate appearances. I'm OK with the power, especially if he hits second. It's the average that doesn't pass the sniff test. Most have him threatening, if not besting .300. My engine incorporates the high batting average on balls in play (BABIP) he's displayed throughout his professional career, but it also recognizes his limited number of plate appearances and regresses accordingly. After careful study, my new projected average is .283. Granted, this is still lower than the masses, but I'm comfortable with it and don't feel I'm trying to make a name for myself by trying to be contrarian.

Brian Dozier (TZ 28, Composite 36)

After clearing the fence 42 times last season, Dozier's another hitter expected to knock fewer out of the yard in 2017. Keeping in mind he swatted 28 in 2015, I'm right in line with others projecting 34 homers. We're also all in the same neighborhood with respect to steals. Where I differ is not penalizing him as much for batting average. Many like to build up a batting average buffer, then chip away at it with late round or end game players. My preference is counting stats and more counting stats, then let average take care of itself. The category is the most tightly bunch while displaying the most variance. I'll take my chances crushing the other categories, then hoping average falls in line. Dozier is a counting stat crusher.

Ian Desmond (TZ 72, Composite 47)

There's a couple things in play here. The first is I don't care how many feet above sea level Coors Field is situated, you can't hit a grounder out of the park. Desmond's ground ball rate has surpassed 50 percent the past three seasons. Second, his spot in the order is unclear. Charlie Blackmon leads off, Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado hit three-four (or vice versa). The catcher hits eighth, leaving DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, David Dahl and Desmond for the rest. There's a chance Desmond settles into the seven-hole, croaking his runs and perhaps steals. Until that's clarified, I'll pass on Desmond in the third or fourth round.

Aroldis Chapman (TZ 80, Composite 56)

Sorry, no hot takes here. The discrepancy is strictly based on roster construction. Quite honestly, after the recent shenanigans by the Yankees front office, I'm rethinking if it's apropos.

The concern is the number of saves Chapmen garners. With Dellin Betances as his understudy, I'm not expecting Chapman to get every opportunity. It's not like he'd lose a ton of chances, but in a contest like the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, even missing five saves is costly. I'm driving the "reliever strikeout and ratios matter" bus, so I understand he'll help in other categories. It's just that I feel I can assemble a staff yielding similar numbers without Chapman, using a closer likely to get virtually all of the save opportunities. You can use a third closer on occasion to make up some saves, but you're going to do that anyway. Using him even more eats away at the edge Chapman provides in strikeouts, since the third closer will likely fan fewer than the starter he replaces in your lineup.

In a stand-alone format, especially American League only, it's a different story. There, I'm all over Chapman, since the possible drop in saves is easily covered by the huge impact he'll have on ratios.

Jean Segura (TZ 103, Composite 64)

I'll be honest, I'm not sure what my colleagues see to rank Segura so high. I'm pretty sure we all anticipate a big drop in power. Maybe it's that I also see fewer stolen base chances. How much is Segura going to run with some combination of Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz following him in the order?

Kyle Hendricks (TZ 120, Composite 79)

This is another case of team construction driving the lower placement. My colleagues rank Hendricks as an SP2 in mixed leagues. We all concur, he's not going to rack up the whiffs. They all are good with that, instead banking solid ratios, with the likely intent of picking up strikeouts later. That scares me, primarily because I see some risk with Hendricks ratios. Plus, unless he convinces his manager otherwise, Hendricks will toss about 180 innings, which reduced the impact of his ratios. If my plan is to anchor ratios with my second starting pitcher, I want someone I feel safer with. Hendricks FIP and xFIP have ranged between 3.20 and 3.90 the past three campaigns. I'm not convinced he can defeat them again.

Mark Trumbo (TZ 67, Composite 89)

Oddly, despite being more aggressive on Trumbo, I don't have any shares of him. It's likely because pitching is usually my focus in the fifth and sixth rounds, then I play chicken with Trumbo one too many times and end up missing out. The advanced rank probably stems from expecting him to again challenge for the league lead in homers, as his approach and swing is built for Camden Yards. Keep in mind he's apt to pick up first base eligibility, though it remains to be seen if playing more designated hitter and less outfield affects his numbers.

If there are any other players you want discussed, please post in the comments. Who knows, maybe you'll get me to change my mind on a couple.