Regan's Rumblings: Mock Draft Analysis

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Updated on March 8, 2017 1:57PM EST

With multiple drafts coming up over the next three weeks, I thought I'd do my first mock draft just to get a better idea where guys are going and to get some practice. I know it's often sleep-inducing to hear about someone else's draft and fantasy team, but hopefully I can write about my experience and lend some insight into some of my thought processes while highlighting certain players I was targeting. For this mock draft, I used Yahoo's mock draft tool and found it fairly intuitive, though for a while I didn't know that you had to choose batters and pitchers separately from the drop-down filter in order to see projected stats. I wish I'd figured that out earlier…

This is a 12-team mixed standard roto format draft — 23 total players with two utility slots, two starting pitchers, two relievers, three SP/RP slots, and six bench slots. I ended up with the first overall pick somehow. For the record, Yahoo gave my draft a B- and said I'd finish in sixth place. Hopefully that doesn't hurt my credibility too much.

Round 1

I didn't think twice about taking Mike Trout here, though I will probably do another mock where I take Clayton Kershaw #1 overall and see how that changes my approach. You can take Trout, Kershaw, Mookie Betts, or even Kris Bryant here and be okay, but I decided to not overthink things. The fact he came out recently and said he'd like to steal 40

Round 1

With back-to-back picks the rest of the way, it's a different thought process than if I'm picking in the middle rounds, as I'm seeing 22 players go off the board after I pick in every odd round. With at least my first five or so picks, I'm going for the best available for the most part and then starting to fill in positional and category gaps starting in the Round 6-7 area. I was hoping Corey Seager and Chris Sale would fall to #24/#25, but both went in Round 2 (Seager #13, Sale #20), so clearly everyone is as high on Seager as I am. Shocker, I know. I was still happy to get Bogaerts, who has 20 steals as his goal and should hit in the .300 range with 20+ home runs. I then nabbed George Springer, who also says he wants to run more (there seems to be a trend here) and is currently projected as the team's leadoff man after posting a .359 OBP in 2016.

Round 4/5

With the last pick (#48) in Round 4, I went off plan a bit and gambled on Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton has averaged a mere 115 games played over the last five seasons and he's seen his BA drop from 2014's .288 to last year's .240. That's what a near-30% K% will do for a guy, though. I thought about Andrew McCutchen and Gary Sanchez here, but I still think Stanton has a healthy 50-homer season in him. After all, he's just 27. I followed the Stanton pick with Justin Verlander, who really should have won the 2016 AL Cy Young award after striking out 254 with 16 wins and a 3.04 ERA. I guess Kate Upton hasn't ruined his career after all. Verlander was the last elite starting pitcher out there unless you're a Stephen Strasburg believer (I'm not).

Round 6/7

Here I was hoping to solidify a solid SB total with Dee Gordon, but alas he went six picks before me at #66 overall. I went with Carlos Martinez and Alex Bregman. Martinez gives me a solid #2 starter with room to improve at age 25. He averages a healthy 95.6 mph with his fastball and generates an elite 2.49 GB/FB ratio. I think there's a lot of room for improvement in his 8.0 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Bregman is a guy who will likely wind up on several of my teams. I considered my first closer (Zach Britton) and a steals machine (Billy Hamilton) here, but Bregman's upside was too enticing. He hit a combined 28 homers in 129 games across three stops last year and has showed the ability to hit .300 annually. After a very slow start to his big league career, Bregman batted .313/.354/.577 over his final 175 PA's.

Round 8/9

Here I finally figured out that Yahoo had projected standings available during the draft, and at this point I was dead last. Awesome. One of my main weaknesses was batting average, so I was hoping to land D.J. LeMahieu here, but he went five picks ahead of me at #91 overall. Jason Kipnis and Jose Peraza also went here, so I decided to wait on second base, going with Zack Greinke and Willson Contreras. RotoWire has Contreras as the #6 catcher, though I could see him finishing as high as #4 with his skillset. I think Contreras has a very good chance to hit 20 homers with a .290 average, and in that lineup, perhaps 75 RBI.

Greinke went just ahead of the likes of Jose Quintana, Rick Porcello, and Aaron Sanchez, and I'm betting on a big rebound. Greinke had a disappointing 4.37 ERA last year, with his 4.17 FIP suggesting he deserved such an ERA. His 2.33 BB/9 was well off 2015's 1.62, and not surprisingly his 1.3 HR/9 was well above his 0.87 career mark. With a healthy shoulder and oblique, I expect he'll be much better in 2017.

Round 10/11

Here I figured it was time to start looking at closers, but five went between my picks and I thought I could wait a bit longer. So, I went with a pair of Red Sox in Andrew Benintendi and Dustin Pedroia. Benintendi is off to a .44/.474/1.000 start with spring, though I'm not sure he's good for more than 15-20 home runs initially. The helium certainly is strong with this one, as I've seen him go higher in other drafts, and the offers I'm getting for him in a dynasty league are tempting, though I've passed so far.
Pedroia posted his best OPS since 2011 last year, batting .318/.376/.449, so I'm happy getting him here considering I needed batting average. I guess closers can wait. Pedroia has four 20+ stolen base seasons in his career, though given the last came back in 2012, I'd be very happy with 10, as he has a total of 15 over the past three seasons.

Round 12/13

Here the plan was closers or bust, though I was also targeting a first baseman in either Albert Pujols or Brandon Belt. Once Pujols went in the middle of Round 11 (how the mighty have fallen…), I grabbed Belt and Alex Colome with these picks. Armed with a 94-96 mph fastball, Colome notched 37 saves with a 1.91 ERA and 71 strikeouts. I was happy to grab him with pick #145 given we have him with a 102.91 ADP. The only caveat of course with Colome is that he could get traded to a contender at some point, where he could act as a setup guy to an elite closer.

Belt is a guy I'm waiting on as a player ready to take that next step and become Freddie Freeman. He's never hit more than 18 home runs and is a career .272 hitter, but I always seem to end up with him on my teams. I do like the step forward he took in 2016 in raising his OBP from .356/ to .394 year over year, but is that power going to come? In addition to the 17 homers in 2016, Belt also checked in with 41 doubles and eight triples, but this year I can see 20+ homers pretty easily.

Round 14/15

With one of these picks, I am kicking myself for not taking Byron Buxton. I noticed after making these selections that I could have put Buxton in a second UT slot, but this is my fault for not reading the roster requirements in advance. So thinking I had my hitter slots filled, I went pitching here with Adam Ottavino and Matt Moore. I really wanted Julio Urias at pick #168, but of course he went at #167. That's another good lesson: if you really want a guy, don't be afraid to overdraft him, particularly the later you get. I could have taken Urias in Round 13 over Colome and then grabbed a guy like Neftali Feliz late. Oh well. Ottavino looked excellent last year in his return from Tommy John surgery and is a candidate for 30+ saves and upwards of 75 strikeouts given his 11.6 K/9 over the 37.1 innings he's pitched since 2014.

Moore is another one of my personal favorites, and in his first full MLB season since Tommy John surgery in 2014, he posted a 4.08 ERA with 178 strikeouts in 198.1 innings. His 8.1 K/9 is solid, but he again had some control issues with a so-so 3.3 BB/9. He's been beat up in a couple spring appearances this month, but I'm still hopeful that he can start to throw more strikes.

Round 16/17

Here I needed another closer and felt Sam Dyson was a better option than Shawn Kelley, Ryan Madson, and Brandon Maurer. We're scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point, but Dyson did have a 2.43 ERA to go with 38 saves, so I like the pick. What I don't like is the 7.0 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9, so I'm not counting on a sub-3.00 ERA again. Dyson could eventually be pushed by Jeremy Jeffress and/or Matt Bush. With my #17 pick, I went with Adam Wainwright, a pick I'm not all that excited about honestly. I almost went with J.A. Happ who went six picks later, but I'm hopeful Wainwright has one more good season in him at 35. He was pretty awful last year with a 4.62 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, but his velocity was in line with prior years, and a sub-4.00 ERA is very possible given his 3.99 FIP last year. Wainwright posted a 3.20 ERA at home last year and an ugly 6.18 mark on the road, so perhaps he'll figure out how to turn things around away from Busch this year.

Round 18/19

I'm kicking myself for not grabbing Yasiel Puig with one of these two picks, as Puig went in the middle of the 19th round. Instead I added some power and speed with Mike Napoli and Jarrod Dyson. I would think in his third go-around with the Rangers, that Napoli should be a near-lock for 30 home runs and close to 100 RBI, though that seems likely to come with a sub-.250 batting average given his K% spiked to 30.1% last season. Dyson, meanwhile, looks to be the Mariners' everyday left fielder and leadoff hitter, as the fourth outfield options include fringe guys like Guillermo Heredia, Ben Gamel, and Danny Valencia. The lefty-swinging Dyson has never topped 300 at-bats in a single big league season, but should be a lock to do so this year given the lack of competition. He even batted .379 versus southpaws last year (albeit in 29 at-bats), so he may not come out of the lineup too often assuming he's hitting. I think he's a candidate for 50 steals, though 35 may be more realistic.

Round 20/21

Here I wanted a starting pitcher and position player with upside and went with Nick Castellanos and Dylan Bundy. I must admit that after trading Paul Goldschmidt for Bundy in the RotoWire Staff Keeper League, I may have rose-colored glasses when it comes to the Orioles hurler. That said, Bundy took a step forward last year, staying healthy and building up his pitch count so he could function as a starter late in the year. He ended up with a 4.02 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, and 1.5 HR/9 while flashing the mid-90s fastball and hammer curve that once made him baseball's top pitching prospect. That seems like ages ago, but he's off to a nice start this spring and he'll likely be the only Orioles starting pitcher I invest in.

Castellanos had a bit of a breakout last year in his first full season, batting .285/.331/.496 with 18 home runs, a 105-point increase in OPS over 2015. Castellanos is a candidate to hit second in the order this season and will barely be 24 come Opening Day. Hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera should allow Castellanos to see a lot of good pitches, though his RBI opportunities will be somewhat limited in that slot.

Round 22/23

With these picks, I was looking for a bounce-back candidate and another high-upside young hitter. Jason Heyward and Yulieski Gurriel fit the bill. Heyward once hit 27 homers and stole 21 bases in a season, but that was way back in 2012 and he has been on a downslide since, culminating in last year's .230/.306/.325 disaster. Heyward, though, has reportedly tweaked his swing to come close to his form from 2012, and though I am skeptical, it's at least a storyline to follow. He's still just 27 in a stacked Cubs lineup, and even if he's not a 25/20 guy again, I think 15/15 is within reason a part of a semi-rebound season.

Meanwhile, Gurriel will soon provide 1B and 3B eligibility, and after taking 2016 to adjust to stateside pitching, he should be in line for a sizeable bump in value. Gurriel posted a miniscule .677 OPS in 130 at-bats for the Astros last year, but now that he has a line on the regular first base job, he should be far more comfortable. Gurriel plays better in AVG leagues than those that switched to OBP, as his 3.6% BB% (2016) probably won't improve drastically this year. I think he can hit .280, but if he topped 15 home runs, it would be a minor surprise. If you wind up drafting Gurriel, keep an eye on how A.J. Reed is progressing in Triple-A.