Oak's Corner: Sometimes Spring Does Matter

This is a fantastic weekend for fantasy baseball. Everyone is in the final stretch of draft season (I have the NFBC Main Event in Las Vegas on Saturday, aka one of the best days of the year), and we have actual real baseball games that count on Sunday.

March is a crazy month for a lot of us who take this hobby seriously. Between real life, work, family, trying to mix in serious draft prep and doing actual drafts, it can get a bit stressful. As I felt a little anxious about being fully ready for such competitive drafts, I took a quick second (and one giant deep breath) and remembered just how fun this game is.

Fantasy baseball gives up a chance to enhance our enjoyment of the sport we love and also stay in touch with friends and hopefully make some new ones along the way. As is the custom that starts around June 1, people will complain about having to work on their FAAB moves on Sunday and I try remind them that the grind and challenge of these games is what makes them so great. If anyone could thrive without a little bit work, it would certainly not be as enjoyable or rewarding.

Enjoy your drafts, don't rush or worry if someone takes the whole clock on their pick; you have prepped and waited all year for draft day, soak in every second. Anyway, just a friendly reminder as the season begins and inevitably heads toward the dog days of summer; appreciate just how great our little game is.

Be Willing and Ready to Adapt

As I drafted in the NFBC on Sunday and Wednesday this week, I was reminded just how important it is to be flexible and willing to adapt during a draft. We all have plans and targets and think we have a good feel for whom will get picked in what round due to all the ADP reports. Then the draft starts and you realize that each draft is fluid and each one is its own monster.

Keep your targets (both player and categorical) in mind, but stay vigilant to what is going on in the draft and who may be available to you in a spot that you did not expect. Every draft has runs in different places and some wacky outliers and you have to be willing to morph your strategy to the flow of the draft. If you miss that closer run or don't get the second starter you want or the top-tier catcher you wanted goes earlier than expected, have a backup to your plan and a backup to that backup. It is always important to know what players you like in the back half of the draft at each position or for whatever category you might be lacking. If you have a solid knowledge of the player pool and don't stubbornly stick to your plan at all times, you will be surprised how well your squad ends up, even if it isn't the one you intended to draft.

Sometimes Spring Does Matter

You always hear it in March; don't pay attention to spring training stats. While that may be true for established players just getting their work in or an experienced starter working on his pitches, there are players whose performance in spring does alter their fantasy value heading into the season. With a lot of fantasy owners drafting this weekend, I thought it would be valuable to look at these players and see what their springs mean for your draft sheet.

Also, if you have already drafted, some of these players might be the first ones you are bidding on in FAAB this weekend. Obviously, there are players like Blake Treinen and Greg Holland (well, maybe on Holland) who have seen their stock rise this spring due to managerial decisions, but I wanted to go a little off the radar deeper in drafts.

Delino DeShields Jr.

DeShields has been the biggest fantasy story of spring 2017. He is hitting .317 in 60 AB with 13 runs, but most impressively, dude has 12 stolen bases! He has changed his role from a likely fourth outfielder to appearing as the Opening Day left fielder for the Rangers, ahead of Jurickson Profar.

DeShields was a hot name coming into 2016 after a 2015 season with the Rangers when he had a .244 OBP and stole 25 bases in 121 games. He had a nightmare 2016 season, though, hitting a mere .209 (with a putrid .275 OBP) in the majors, which resulted in spending a good chunk of the season in Triple-A. DeShields saw his walk rate fall more than 3 percentage points from 2015 while his strikeout rate climbed 6 percentage points. His .334 BABIP in 2015 might have had an element of luck to it, but players with his speed often have a higher BABIP, so that did not appear to be a red flag entering 2016.

For fantasy purposes, DeShields is absolutely worth taking a shot on, especially in the current MLB environment where steals can be hard to find. He was an extreme burner in the minors with a couple of 50-plus steal seasons and even a 2012 campaign across Single-A where he swiped 101 bases! DeShields' batting average is very much in question after 2016, and you aren't going to get any pop from him, but the threat of a lot of stolen bases should he hold on to that job makes him someone I am moving up significantly on my draft sheet. His ADP is obviously worthless now, but for a point of reference, DeShields was selected in the 16th round of my 15-team NFBC draft on Wednesday.

Andrew Triggs

Triggs' stock has risen this spring after a Sonny Gray injury took Triggs from a battle for the fifth spot in the A's rotation to a comfortable frontrunner for one of two available rotation spots. He has since been named to the rotation and will start the year as the A's fourth starter.

Triggs was a reliever in the Kansas City and Baltimore systems before moving to the A's in 2016. The A's converted him to a starter at the major-league level, and he took to the role immediately. In his six starts in 2016, Triggs had an absurd strikeout-to-walk ratio of 22/1 in 25.2 innings. That ratio was clearly achieved in a very small sample, but Triggs has shown a nice K/BB in the minors (albeit while relieving) and struck out more than a batter per inning in Triple-A in both 2015 and 2016. Triggs' overall numbers in 2016 were not especially impressive on the surface with a 4.31 ERA, but a closer look reveals a 3.20 FIP and a low 64.6 percent strand rate that killed his ERA.

Triggs started spring pitching really well with only one earned run over his first 9.1 innings, but he has been hit hard in two of his last three outing to quickly balloon his ERA to 7.78. I am hoping the recent bumps in the road slow down the Triggs steam and he settles back in a nice value, one I plan on picking up and using for at least his home starts in the spacious Oakland Coliseum.

Raul Mondesi

Mondesi was named the Royals' starting second baseman Monday. He earned that role with a sparkling spring that featured a .367 batting average with four stolen bases in 49 at-bats. The hype on Mondesi has grown since the announcement, as the thought of a stolen-base source with middle infield eligibility is always appealing. In my 15-team NFBC Main Event league on Wednesday night, Mondesi came off the board in the 20th round at pick 288 overall.

Mondesi is definitely someone I am not buying the hype on after his excellent spring. He was called up to the Royals last year and did not look ready at all. In his 135 MLB at-bats, Mondesi hit .185 with an absurd 32.2 percent strikeout rate, a high rate for any hitter, but especially one like Mondesi with minimal power and a lot of speed. His strikeout rates were high across the minors for a hitter of his profile, and that is going to continue to be exploited this season in the majors. His hard hit rate was 31.2 percent, so he did make a good amount of solid contact, but at that strikeout rate, I am concerned about the batting average.

The steals should be there if he can get on base, but even with his speed, he still has a max of 24 steals in any season in the minors. There are too many middle infielders in the same range that I prefer to Mondesi, and I am not letting a few spring at-bats change my mind on him. He is a pass for me at his newfound price.

Charlie Morton

I have been in on the Morton hype train a few times in the last few years. While his 2013 season with Pittsburgh was really good with a 3.26 ERA in 116 innings, he always seems to fall short due to either injury or performance. Morton looked solid in April with the Phillies last year with some newfound velocity leading to a 9.87 K/9, and while his ERA was a bland 4.15, he flashed a 3.09 FIP through four starts before tearing his hamstring running the bases. Of the most particular note in Morton's short time on the mound in 2016 was that his velocity on his fastball averaged 94.3 mph, up nearly 2.5 mph from 2015.

By multiple beat writer accounts this spring, Morton has sustained that velocity gain, throwing 94-97 mph and posting a 1.04 ERA in 17.1 innings with 17 strikeouts. Morton has always had an elite groundball rate (career 55.4 percent), and if the newfound velocity can add strikeouts to his profile, he becomes very intriguing. Morton won a spot in the Astros' rotation and is one player I am definitely buying due to his spring results and velocity readings.

Matchup of the Weekend

Every Friday, I will look at the best weekend series to watch as a quick preview of what you should try to check out from a real and fantasy baseball angle. I will do my best to find some off-the-radar series (sometimes it will be the obvious ones) that feature some intriguing fantasy storylines. This weekend is tough as there are only three games total, but we will still take a stab at it.

Yankees at Rays – All three of the Sunday games feature excellent pitching match-ups, but the Masahiro Tanaka vs. Chris Archer matchup is the one I am most interested in. Tanaka has had an exceptional spring (he did finally give up a run) with a 0.38 ERA to go with 28 strikeouts in 23.2 innings and has been flying up draft boards the last two weeks. Archer started very poorly last year, but finished strong and it will be interesting to see if he can pick up where he left off.

I am looking forward to seeing whether Gary Sanchez is really as good as he was in 2016 and if newly named starting right fielder Aaron Judge can continue his red hot spring (.960 OPS).

Finally, I am looking forward to getting a first 2017 look at one of my prime fantasy values this season, Kevin Kiermaier.