Mound Musings: AL Bullpen Check

Saves remain a key scoring category in most fantasy leagues, but many owners are shying away from spending large amounts of draft money or higher picks to acquire the saves necessary to stay competitive in the category. You can punt the category – tough to win without some production here – or you can work the waiver wire shopping for cheap sources of saves. It's challenging, and the best values result from successful speculation where you can land a soon-to-be closer before your fellow owners.

Will the real closer sign in, please?

Even this early in the season, there are closer scenarios changing or at least potentially changing. Relief pitching has become an ever-increasing part of success in major league baseball. Very few teams have five reliable starters. In fact, there are teams that would be hardpressed to pencil in more than a couple of regular starting pitchers who can be expected to generate positive innings on a consistent basis. True quality relievers are becoming more important, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to "save" that best guy for the ninth inning. What's a fantasy owner to do? How do you identify the guy on his way to end-game significance? Last week we visited the National League, now, let's take a look at some closer assignments in the AL and see where they may be headed …

Here are some AL closer scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Oakland A's – Closer by committee is a fairly common description given to bullpens in turmoil, but things usually sort themselves out quickly and one pitcher steps to the head of the class. In Oakland, the committee seems to be standing although Santiago Casilla has received the lion's share of the ninth inning work. He's sharing duties with Sean Doolittle depending on matchups, and there's a good chance that will continue as long as it seems to work. Ryan Madson has consistently been handling the eighth inning, but he could still enter into the saves picture if things do get out of hand. Doolittle has the best stuff among the three but he also has a long history of injuries, which may demand a closely monitored workload, so sharing the job may be the best fit for him. Based on usage so far, Casilla is the best reliever to own here, however, Doolittle could pry move chances away from him as the season progresses. Regardless, owning an A's reliever in the saves chase should probably only be a desperation move.

• Texas Rangers – The days of Dyson may be at an end for today and for the future. Sam Dyson experienced an early season meltdown of epic proportions (13 runs in 4.1 innings), then found his way to the DL, either because of a hand injury or the need for some serious adjustments to his mechanics, or both. He'll likely be back soon, but this provided the Rangers with the perfect chance to try the best-equipped pitcher in their bullpen with an audition. Matt Bush is now toiling in the ninth inning, and while teams don't typically like to make changes based on minor injuries, it could be very difficult to justify going back to Dyson, who has always been better suited to a set-up role. This is a team with the luxury of talented bullpen depth, including Bush, Dyson, Jeremy Jeffress, Keone Kela and Jose Leclerc, but Bush stands out as a potential beast.

• Detroit Tigers – This one potentially offers all the intrigue of a dime-store novel. The Tigers have the services of long-time premier closer Francisco Rodriguez, but K-ROD may be losing his edge. Their perennial heir-apparent, righty Bruce Rondon, was an early season disaster movie, buying him a ticket to Triple-A Toledo. The plot thickens. The most likely candidate now becomes southpaw Justin Wilson, with a half-hearted nod to Alex Wilson. There's also a righty-specialist in the cast, Shane Greene, but none of them really fits the bill. Perhaps the best solution will turn out to be young Joe Jimenez. Signed as an undrafted free agent a couple of years ago, Jimenez has sailed through the Tigers' system on the strength of his mid-upper 90s fastball and an improving slider, but he's probably not quite ready for the lead role. Detroit will probably hope K-ROD can squeeze in another quality season, and Wilson (Justin) would likely be the first option until they feel comfortable handing the reins over to Jimenez. Rondon is also still in the picture, but Jimenez is doing his best to claim a starring role.

• Chicago White Sox – With so many bullpens struggling, it's likely only a matter of time before someone agrees to pay the White Sox' asking price for their closer David Robertson. Robertson has been involved in trade rumors for over a year, but he still resides in Chicago. The Sox have been shrewd traders of late, netting some exceptional young talent when peddling veterans. Look for more of the same when/if Robertson goes. Interestingly, he's a good, but not great, closer, and as the season wears on his value will only go up. Assuming he is dealt, the team has a seemingly ideal candidate to step into the void in Nate Jones. However – there always seems to be at least one of those – Jones missed most of 2014 and 2015 with Tommy John surgery before returning to full strength last year, and he could also be targeted by teams interested in bolstering their pen. He can get a little wild at times, but his stuff is filthy. If Robertson and Jones both go, the picture gets very cloudy. Jake Petricka (he is just coming off the DL) or Zach Putnam (going on the DL) would appear to be the best (okay, so-so) current roster options, but once flamethrower Zack Burdi refines his command just a bit at Triple-A Charlotte, he should vault past both of them rather easily.

• Kansas City Royals – Now for a little fun. Part of the appeal of fantasy baseball, at least for me, is speculation. In this segment, I'm not predicting the downfall of Royals' closer Kelvin Herrera – barring injury, he's pretty well entrenched. Rather, I want to toss out another potential target for teams trying to settle things at the back of their bullpen. One of my all-time favorite closers back in the day was Joakim Soria. Now, at age 32, it could be said that was ancient history, but in watching him this year, he has looked much like the old Soria. He has had two Tommy John surgeries, and his once pinpoint command has been inconsistent the last couple of seasons, however, his velocity is higher than it has ever been, and his breaking pitches have looked exceptionally crisp. That is something that hasn't always been the case in recent seasons. There is no question that he presents an injury risk, but someone with his experience (202 career saves) has got to be a better risk than some of the pretenders closing games these days. Putting on my GM cap, I think I'd see if the Royals would consider a deal.
  

• The San Francisco Giants (and his fantasy owners) suffered a huge blow when ace lefty Madison Bumgarner suffered a shoulder and a rib injury in an off-day dirt bike accident. He's expected to miss about two months, but it could be longer. You can't replace a number one, you just hope it's not too long.

• Yu Darvish has really been a disappointment this season, but he looked pretty much like his old self in his start against the Royals. He served up back-to-back homeruns in the third inning, but other than that he was pretty much untouchable and, most importantly, he was hitting his spots with the whole repertoire.

• I watched the Mets' Zack Wheeler the other day, and he looked sharp. Well, he looked sharp after the first four Nationals reached, capped by a grand slam. He's missed a couple of years following Tommy John surgery, but don't forget he was once lumped in with teammates Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard.

• Another pitcher who has impressed, although his record doesn't show it is the Royals' Ian Kennedy. Through four starts he holds a 2.08 ERA with an equally stellar 1.04 WHIP yet he is 0-2 on the year. When he is in a groove he can be very tough, but it's hard when your team scores three runs in your four starts.

• Still perhaps the best pitching prospect in the game, the Dodgers' Julio Urias will make a start today (Thursday) as the team tries to get their rotation in order. Still only age 20, he is expected to stay with the big team while he works on refining his command. He definitely remains a huge keeper/dynasty asset.

• I also checked on the Rangers' Andrew Cashner to see where he was after missing most of Spring Training with biceps soreness and then nerve irritation in his shoulder. While he showed decent movement, and his ERA looks pretty attractive (2.93), his velocity is down and his command is nowhere close yet.
  

Endgame Odyssey:

I didn't list the Los Angeles Angels bullpen in the above analysis because injuries have pretty much eliminated any real closer considerations. Huston Street was rehabbing a back ailment, and suffered shoulder problems. Then the oft-injured Andrew Bailey also went on the DL, so Cam Bedrosian appeared to be locked in. Now he's on the DL too, but hopefully for just 10 days. I wouldn't waste my time with any fill-ins. Koda Glover might have officially been behind Shawn Kelley for saves in Washington, but he converted saves on back-to-back days last weekend before hitting the DL with a hip impingement earlier this week. It was a hip injury that ended his 2016 season. Glover has said he doesn't think this one is serious, but don't be surprised if the team's search for an experienced closer intensifies. The Mariners are considering an expansion in the usage of closer Edwin Diaz so you might see him in the eighth and ninth innings at times. This is an evolving trend, especially when teams lack faith in their other bullpen arms. In Baltimore, Brad Brach has given a very good accounting of himself, but stopper Zach Britton is going out on a rehab assignment and should return soon. Hector Neris is presumably still the primary closer in Philadelphia, but he has allowed nine baserunners in his last three innings of work so it might be early to assume Joaquin Benoit will be a full time setup man going forward. As expected, after three non-save appearances, the Mets are moving Jeurys Familia back into his primary closer role with Addison Reed as his main set-up man.