Oak's Corner: Keep on Grinding

The big news in baseball (and fantasy baseball) over the first month of the season has been the huge number of injuries. The new 10-Day DL has contributed a bit to that, as teams have been way more willing to toss a lingering day-to-day injury (especially with pitchers) on the DL, but it's also very clear that more guys are getting hurt, and many of them have been significant fantasy contributors. With three of the top six starting pitchers in ADP on the DL and two of them (Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard) out long-term, it can get frustrating. It hasn't been just the pitching either, three of the top 15 offensive players drafted have already spent time on the DL and that's before I even get to Starling Marte and his 80-game suspension.

It's hard not to get down when you team goes through some bad injuries, I know I have felt that way myself already with Bumgarner and Miguel Cabrera as my first two picks in the NFBC Main Event, but you can't let that keep you from grinding away. Everyone is going to have some injuries (especially this season!), and while they not even out over a season, it has to be attacked like a challenge to overcome. Injuries hurt and they certainly make it tougher to compete, but in baseball, you can survive off some later-round gems as well as supplement your roster via free agency. In fantasy football or basketball, if you lose your top pick, you're way more likely to be done than in baseball where fantasy teams start more players, and one guy doesn't make quite as big an impact. At the end of the season, I always go back and look at the teams that win my leagues (and overall competitions), and almost all of them encountered some serious road bumps along the way due to performance or injury, but that's baseball and you just have to hope you don't get too many of those obstacles. Either way (and I often need to heed this myself), make sure to keep grinding as it's not only rewarding, it also can be a lot of fun to conquer some rough injury luck.

The Week That Was

• Freddie Freeman has become one of the best hitters in baseball, and it feels like he's still a bit under the radar. Freeman has been a beast so far in 2017, hitting .368 and slugging an absurd .779 while hitting 10 homers through 26 games. Almost impossibly, with those numbers, Freeman has only managed to drive in 17 runs. I assumed Freeman had maybe struggled in his at-bats with guys on base, but a closer look shows a .364 average for Freeman with runners in scoring position, but in only 17 plate appearances (and six of those led to walks). The real culprits have been the batters in front of him, Ender Inciarte (.292 OBP), Adonis Garcia (.297 OBP while hitting second) and most significantly, Dansby Swanson (.159 OBP in 14 games hitting second). Inciarte had a .351 OBP in 2016 and should come around, but the Braves really need to find someone who can get on base to hit second in order to take advantage of how great Freeman is hitting. During his breakout 2016 campaign, Freeman flashed an elite 43.5 percent hard hit rate and he has maintained that excellence with a 42.1 percent hard hit rate so far in 2017.

• After a truly horrendous start to the season, Jose Reyes has finally woken up; hitting .363 with three homers and two steals over his last 40 plate appearances. The awful start has kept Reyes' batting average under .200, and I have seen him show up on the waiver wire in a number of leagues over the last two weeks. Don't forget that Reyes did hit .267 last year with an impressive eight homers and nine stolen bases in only 60 games. I would certainly add Reyes in free agency this weekend if he was dropped in your league, but if not, I would to attempt to acquire Reyes in a trade while his average is still buried below the Mendoza Line.

• After rocketing up draft boards in 2016, Miguel Sano was a bit of a disappointment last season despite slugging 25 homers. He hurt fantasy teams with a .236 batting average, and due to time missed for a hamstring injury, he only managed 66 RBI and 57 runs. Sano has hit the ground running in 2017 with eight homers and 27 RBI along with a surprising .314 batting average. While Sano still strikes out too much (33 percent K Rate so far this year) and the .442 Babip is clearly coming down, there are some real gains to get excited about in Sano's game. The biggest of those is his increased patience, as his current walk rate is 18.9 percent, up from last year's 10.9 percent. In addition, while his hard hit rate last year of 40.1 percent was fantastic, he has eclipsed that so far with an incredible 56.9 percent hard hit rate n 2017. Even more impressively, Sano leads all of baseball with a ridiculous 2 percent soft hit rate. I love what I see from Sano both in the numbers and via the eye test, and while I'm probably waiting for the first slump (and it will come) to target him in trade talks, I'm certainly doing so as soon as that happens.

• Everyone seems to love Kyle Schwarber – maybe it's how far his the homers go or the fact he is on the Cubs, but it feels like his awful start has been swept under the carpet a little bit. Schwarber does have four homers but is carrying an abysmal .190 batting average through his first 105 at-bats. He is striking out more than he did in 2015 with a current 30.6 percent strikeout rate, and more importantly, when he does make contact, he's not doing as much with it. After his 2015 call-up, he had an impressive 39.7 percent hard hit rate, but that number is only 29.4 percent through the first month of the season. On the bright side, he is walking at a solid 13.7 percent of the time, but with that K-Rate and without a big bump in his hard contact, it's hard to see his batting average getting to any kind of decent level. He hasn't hit righties or lefties well this year, but his career .159 average against lefties could lead him to sit more often as the Cubs can play Javier Baez at second base and Ben Zobrist in left field when facing a lefty, a move that also helps them on defense. I fear that Schwarber is a BA drain and could be a risk to sit a decent amount of games and I'm not looking to target him, even if his price is depressed after the first month.
  

After looking at some rookie call-ups last week, I'm going to look at a few two-start pitchers for next week that you may be considering in FAAB this weekend.
• Adam Conley: Conley showed some promise in 2015 and 2016 with ERAs below 4.00 in both seasons, but he has struggled mightily so far in 2017. Conley struggled with walks in 2016 and those issues have only gotten worse this season with a 4.68 BB/9 ratio. In combination with the walk bump, his strikeouts have dipped to 7.56 K/9 so far this season. His 6.12 ERA has led to him being dropped in a lot of leagues, and this week he's scheduled for two starts, facing the Cardinals and Braves, both in Miami. I do like the trend of Conley's swinging strike rate as it's currently at 11.1 percent so I think the strikeouts will get back to at least where they were in 2016. My concern is the rise in his hard hit rate (35.7 percent) plus the walks make for a poor combination. It's been tough to find starting pitchers to stream so far this season, so I'm fine giving Conley a shot with both games at home in deep mixed leagues or NL-Only leagues, but I'm passing on the two-step in 12 teamers.

• Luis Perdomo: Upon a closer look, there's a lot to like about Perdomo through his first four starts of the season. He doesn't project to be a heavy strikeout guy, but he has upped his strikeout rate a bit this year to 7.25 K/9, which is supported by an increase in his swinging strike rate to 10.2 percent. Perdomo pitched well on Thursday, allowing only one run in six innings to lower his ERA to 4.03. He has been hurt by a low strand rate of 62.9 percent and if that could normalize a bit, his ERA should come down; in fact his FIP through four starts is a sparkling 3.09. Coming into Thursday's start. He was doing a great job limiting hard contact at only 22.6 percent while inducing a really nice 22.2 percent infield fly ball rate. Perdomo's velocity is up to 94.5 mph (from 93.6 mph in 2016) and his is also throwing his slider harder (up to 85.1 mph) and more often (34 percent of the time). Most impressively through four starts, he's operating with an elite ground ball rate of 69.1 percent. There is a lot of under the radar good stuff going on with Perdomo, and I'll be bidding on him this week in 15 and 12-teamers with matchups home vs. Texas and at the White Sox.

• Nathan Karns: Through his first five starts, Karns had two good starts and three poor ones (a couple of which were really bad). That unpredictability caused him to be dropped in a lot of leagues, but he twirled a gem on Wednesday, allowing no earned runs over six innings while striking out seven White Sox. This week, Karns gets the Rays in Tampa and then faces the Orioles at home. Over the past three seasons, Karns has averaged about one strikeout per inning, and while he's a bit down this year at 8.07 strikeouts per nine, his swinging strike rate is consistent with last year's rate at 10.8 percent. I really like Karns' ground ball trend so far at 59 percent, and while that will likely revert closer to his career levels, which in combination with a lower hard hit rate of 27.4 percent, peaks my interest. Karns' ERA of 4.97 is inflated by his first start of the year when he allowed four earned runs in only two-thirds of an inning. Without that start, his ERA on the year is a much more manageable 3.81. With two games in solid pitcher's parks (Tropicana and Kauffman) this week, I'm bidding Karns in 15 and 12-teamers with the thought he might end up being someone I keep beyond just this week in a deeper league.

I have had a number of people ask me questions about some possible closer in waiting adds, so rather than highlight some closer situations this week, I'm listing four setup guys I'm speculating on right now. These are based on not only having no stud closer ahead of them, but also a belief that they are skilled and could hold the job long-term with an opportunity. I won't bother noting well-known stud setup guys like Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances as they are very highly owned in every league.
• Archie Bradley: When Shelby Miller went out for the season with Tommy John surgery, there was some thought that Bradley would move to the rotation, but that didn't happen and manager Torey Lovullo commented that Bradley would stay in the bullpen. After a 2016 spanning 26 starts for the D-Backs with an unsightly 5.02 ERA, Bradley found himself in the bullpen to start 2017. He has thrived in the role, tossing 16 innings over eight appearances while sporting a nice 10.7 K/9 against only 1.69 BB/9. His .206 Babip and 100 percent strand rate are going to adjust to increase his 1.03 ERA, but he'll still be left with some very nice ratios. The move to the bullpen has increased his swinging rate nearly two points to 10.4 percent with the only concern so far being his elevated 36.1 percent hard hit rate. Closer Fernando Rodney is currently sitting with an 11.45 ERA and an ugly 5.73 BB/9 and has allowed multiple runs in four different outings already. The Diamondbacks have played well so far and find themselves in the mix in the NL West and with one or two more Rodney implosions, I think they make the move to Bradley who could then run away with the job. Bradley is owned in many deeper leagues, but if you have a spot and his is available in yours, I'd grab him right now.

• Justin Wilson: I discussed Wilson a few weeks back when detailing the struggles of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod has thrown back-to-back scoreless appearances, but the most recent one featured two base runners, and prior to that, he had three straight appearances where he gave up a run. Wilson did have one recent blip where he allowed two runs in a loss to the White Sox, but that remains the only outing all year where Wilson has allowed any runs. He has sustained his exceptional strikeout rate at 14.66 K/9 and while he has dominated lefties so far this year, he was actually better against right-handers last years, allowing only a .369 SLG in 2016 over 155 batters faced so he doesn't appear to display any platoon splits that could impact his ability to close as a lefty.

• Corey Knebel: After a strong first two weeks to start the season, Neftali Feliz is showing a few cracks, allowing seven earned runs over his last seven innings. Homers have been an issue for Feliz. He allowed four already through his first 12.2 innings while posting a 5.68 ERA. He does have nearly a strikeout per inning, but if he can't find a way to limit the homers and the hard contact (35.7 percent), he could be replaced fairly quickly. Knebel has been great so far with a 1.35 ERA over 13.1 innings while strikeout out 18 batters. The one issue with Knebel is the walks as his walks per nine currently sits too high at 4.73 and was too high last year at 4.41. If he can find a way to cut the walks down his 2015 level (3.04 BB/9), he could grab the Brewers job and run with it.

• Ryan Dull: This one is a little further off the map and is someone who's available in all leagues, except for maybe AL-Only leagues. With the news that Sean Doolittle's shoulder is hurt again, I'm considering him completely out of the closer mix for this season (and frankly, maybe longer, which is disappointing news for one of my favorite players). Santiago Casilla is currently first in line for saves and while he only has one blown save on the year, his control issues are becoming an issue, as he now has six walks through 11 innings. With the A's in clear rebuilding mode in 2017, they may look to trade or move away from the veterans in the pen and give Dull a chance to see if he can be their guy moving into 2018. Dull's ERA is high so far at 4.22, but all those runs stem from two outings where he allowed three and two earned runs. Dull's walks so far are high, but after a 1.82 BB/9 rate over a full season in 2016, I am confident that Dull's walk rate will decrease as the season goes along. Further, Dull has pushed his K/9 over nine this season and his swinging strikeout rate is easily the highest of his career at a very strong 14.9 percent. In deeper leagues where saves are hard to find, I like a small bid on Dull now and in thinner leagues, he is someone to watch closely to see both how Casilla pitches and then the A's decide to play and plan for 2018.
  

Arizona at Colorado. At first glance, the surging Yankees heading to Wrigley Field to battle the champion Cubs looks like an obvious choice, and while that will be a fun series, I'm more fired up (especially as a fantasy owner) about the Diamondbacks heading to Coors. The Diamondbacks have scored the second most runs in the National League and head to the only place better to hit than their home park and get to face a young and unproven Rockies rotation. I'm expecting a lot of fireworks from the Arizona offense, especially with warm weather expected in Denver all weekend. But this isn't just a series that is exciting for the offensive firepower reasons as these are also currently the top two teams in the NL West with the Rockies a surprising 18-11 (and 11-5 on the road!) with the Diamondbacks only 1.5 games behind at 17-13.

The Rockies offense hasn't fully kicked into gear yet (I'm looking at you, Trevor Story and Carlos Gonzalez) and is just finally getting fully healthy, but they have still managed to average more than 5.5 runs per game so far at home (even with some cold weather). The Diamondbacks do send some solid pitchers to the mound in Taijuan Walker, Zack Greinke and lefty Patrick Corbin, but I think the Rockies offense will break through, and they will have to in order to score with the D-Backs all weekend. I can't wait for this series as it promises to be a cornucopia of fantasy stats and also holds some early importance (as much as a series in early May can) in the NL West standings.