Regan's Rumblings: Home Run Data

If you hadn't guessed it by now, we're going to talk home runs this week. The source for this data is the ESPN home run tracker page located here.. It's a great site that measures anything and everything related to home runs and contains links to every home run hit this year and apparently back to 2006. You can watch Giancarlo Stanton moonshots, find out that somehow, Eric Hosmer has this year's longest home run at 469 feet, and yes, if you want to re-live Madison Bumgarner's two Opening Day home runs, they are there. Before we talk about the data and specifics players that I find interesting, a few definitions:

Average HR distance – This speaks for itself. The average distance of all home runs this year is 399.8 feet.

Average speed off bat – This measures the speed of the home run off the bat in mph. Average for all home runs: 103.6 mph.

Average elevation angle – Measures the angle above horizontal at which the ball left the bat, in degrees. Average for all home runs: 27.6 degrees.

Average number of parks out – Out of the 30 MLB ballparks, how many would the hit actually have been a home run? For example, a home run in Colorado is probably a home run in all 30 parks if it's hit 500 feet, but if it barely clears the wall in Coors, it's an out in most other parks. The average MLB home runs this year would have been a home run in 23.5 of all 30 MLB parks.

Regarding #2 and #3, I think it's safe to include that if the ball comes off a hitter's bat at a relatively high velocity and at an elevated launch angle, that leads to an increased likelihood that the net result will be a home run.

Before we talk about the data around specific hitters I found interesting, here are a few interesting data observations. Because I want a representative sample size, I'm only going to highlight hitters with at least five home runs:

Average speed off the bat leader:Hanley Ramirez – 111 mph

Lowest average speed off the bat:Jedd Gyorko – 84 mph

Average distance leader:Matt Holliday (really?) – 426 feet

Lowest average distance:Jedd Gyorko – 333 feet

Average elevation angle leader: Tie – Josh Harrison and Andrew McCutchen – 32 degrees

Lowest average elevation angle:Jose Abreu – 22 degrees

Average # of parks out leader:Hanley Ramirez – 30 – all five of his home runs would have been home runs in every other MLB park. Impressive. Of note was that Francisco Lindor checked in at 29.8 for his eight home runs.

Lowest average # of parks out:Aaron Hicks – 8.2. Five of Hicks' six home runs have come at home, so he's clearly benefitting from Yankee Stadium.

Marwin Gonzalez (UT-HOU)

Number of HR: 9
Average distance: 376 feet
Average speed: 100 mph
Average elevation angle: 29 degrees
Average # of parks out: 19

I suppose it's not a huge surprise to see that Gonzalez's nine home runs are a bit of a fluke. Distance is very low, average speed is below average, and only one of his home runs grades out as a no-doubter. Even not having an everyday role, Gonzalez has played five different positions, and his .271/.381/.686 slash line has come in 70 at-bats. Other than the power, what really stands out with Gonzalez is his 12.8% BB%, a metric that has checked in at 4.3% and 4.2% the past two seasons. His 17.4% K% is his lowest strikeout rate since 2014, so he's locked in right now. Gonzalez's BABIP is also quite low at .217, so there's some room for improvement on the batting average side. We know the home runs are going to start coming with less frequency given the unsustainability in his 39.1% HR/FB rate (league average is in the 11-12% range), but the improved plate discipline is an indicator that this is a pretty good hitter. Still, I'd be surprised if he winds up with more than 20-22 home runs.

Trey Mancini (OF/1B-BAL)

Number of HR: 7
Average distance: 411 feet
Average speed: 108 mph
Average elevation angle: 26 degrees
Average # of parks out: 28

Mancini is playing every day against lefties, but perhaps the Orioles have noticed that he's also hitting .417/.423/1.125 in 24 at-bats with five home runs versus right-handers. Sure, his 4.2% BB% and 31% K% could be red flags, but given his overall .313/.338/.687 slash and reasonable minor league strikeout rates (22.9% in Triple-A in 2016), I'm not overly concerned about the strikeouts. After not being in the lineup for two games, Mancini played in each of the team's games from Saturday through Monday and went 7-for-10 with two homers, six RBI, a walk, and no strikeouts. Meanwhile, Hyun Soo Kim is batting .227/.306/.318 in 44 at-bats in left field, and even Joey Rickard is seeing time out there with his .275/.293/.425. At some point I think Mancini will force the issue, and who knows, maybe he already has and Buck Showalter just hasn't made it "official" that he's an everyday player.

Eric Thames (1B/OF-MIL)

Number of HR: 12
Average distance: 395 feet
Average speed: 101 mph
Average elevation angle: 30 degrees
Average # of parks out: 24

Given that Thames' average HR distance is by far the lowest for any of the 11 players with 10+ home runs, I thought I'd say a couple things about him. Thames is great and he's an integral part of many league-leading fantasy teams with a .324/.438/.731 slash line. He ended a nine-game home run drought with a home run Sunday, so we're already seeing some expected regression. He also hit just .162 in those nine games, but I do still think Thames is for real. I'd look for him to hit something in the range of .290/.360/.540 the rest of the way, which is still quite good.

Joey Gallo (3B/OF-TEX)

Number of HR: 10
Average distance: 422 feet
Average speed: 108 mph
Average elevation angle: 28 degrees
Average # of parks out: 27

I have zero shares of Gallo given the astronomical 46.3% and 63.3% strikeout rates he's put up in the previous two big league seasons, and again this year the rate is still an elevated 40.7%. His walk rate is a solid 10.6%, with the net result being an interesting .194/.293/.528 slash line. Batting average is always going to be an issue with Gallo, but just think about the possibilities if he could even hit .240. Worth noting is that among the 16 players with a 30%+ K% this year, nine are hitting below .200, with one, Miguel Sano, somehow batting .300. Gallo will compete for time with Delino DeShields Jr., Shin-Soo Choo, and Ryan Rua once Adrian Beltre (calf) is healthy, and I have to wonder whether he'll continue to stick around with a sub-.200 BA despite the power.

Adam Duvall (OF-CIN)

Number of HR: 9
Average distance: 400 feet
Average speed: 104 mph
Average elevation angle: 28 degrees
Average # of parks out: 20

Duvall came over from the Giants in the Mike Leake deal. Leake ended up making nine starts with a 4.07 ERA for the Giants, and given the issues the Giants have had in left field, they could certainly have used a guy like Duvall. Duvall had 33 bombs and 103 RBI last year with a .241/.297/.498 slash line in 2016 and he has three 30+ homer seasons in the minors, so yes, the power is real. This year, Duvall is batting an improved .274/.320/.590 with the main factor being a vastly improved strikeout rate – 27% in 2016, 21.9% so far this year. The improved plate discipline looks to be real. He's swinging at just 28.4% of pitches outside the zone versus a 34% career rate and his swinging strike rate of 8.6% is far better than his 12.2% career rate. I believe in the "new" Adam Duvall.

Ryan Schimpf (2B-SD)

Number of HR: 9
Average distance: 411 feet
Average speed: 105 mph
Average elevation angle: 29 degrees
Average # of parks out: 27

We got a glimpse of Schimpf's low BA/high power skillset last year when the Padres infielder hit .217/.336/.533 with 20 home runs and 51 RBI in just 276 at-bats. This year the power is still there, but the slash has taken a dip to .172/.319/.484. It's a three true outcomes package, as Schimpf is walking in 18.1% of his PA and striking out in 31% of them. It's the same skillset he exhibited in the minor leagues, with the result of all the strikeouts being that his MLB debut came at the age of 28 rather than 23. Schimpf is a guy I'd use in DFS against RHP away from Petco Park, but in roto leagues, it's tough to roster a guy who doesn't run and is a huge negative in the BA department.

Miguel Sano (3B-MIN)

Number of HR: 8
Average distance: 418 feet
Average speed: 107 mph
Average elevation angle: 28 degrees
Average # of parks out: 29

Sano's 418 ft. homer distance is second to that of Joey Gallo's 422 among players with at least seven taters. His 35-40 home run power is undeniable given his minor league career plus the scouting reports, but what is surprising is that he's hitting .300/.431/.640. That's .300 for a guy who hit .236 last year and who we projected at .248 based on an elevated strikeout rate that is still high this year at 34.1%. He's walking far more, however, with an 18.7% BB%. It would be easy to look at the .440 BABIP and predict a huge drop in his batting average, and though I don't see him as a .300 hitter, why not .280? Sano's soft hit rate is an incredible 1.7%, by far the lowest in baseball. Jay Bruce as a comparison is second at 6.2% and Byron Buxton is 35.4%. Sano's 53.5% hard hit rate is second in the league behind Nick Castellanos and he hits a lot of fly balls. If you're hitting the ball that hard and that consistently, a high BABIP can be sustainable. Perhaps not .440, but in the upper .300s? Sure.

Austin Hedges (C-SD)

Number of HR: 7
Average distance: 399 feet
Average speed: 104 mph
Average elevation angle: 27 degrees
Average # of parks out: 26

Hedges broke out with 21 homers in Triple-A last year, so the early power surge didn't quite come out of nowhere. He's still batting just .188/.248/.438, but the power is nice, and only one of his seven homers barely cleared the wall. What's interesting with Hedges is that he now has 257 career big league at-bats over parts of three seasons, and his BABIP has been consistently low in each of those years and sits at .193 for his career. His hard hit rate this year is actually above average at 34.7%, though his soft hit rate is also high at 25%, so when he does connect, it goes a long way, but Hedges doesn't appear to consistently get good wood on the ball. It would be nice to see his 6.6% BB% start to trend up and I think it will, as Hedges' career strikeout rate in the minors is a solid 16.6%, and at 24, I think the batting average will be there with more experience. Perhaps the 2-for-4 (HR) game he had on Sunday will be looked back on as the date he started making more frequent and harder consistent contact.

Yonder Alonso (1B-OAK)
Number of HR: 9
Average distance: 403 feet
Average speed: 104 mph
Average elevation angle: 28 degrees
Average # of parks out: 21

Keeping a $3 C.J. Cron over a $5 Alonso is one of many reasons why I haven't won our staff league. It was a decision based on Cron's upside and the fact that Alonso has never hit double-digit home runs. It's fun to look back on Alonso's write-up for the magazine, as the last sentence is very telling: "Maybe one year, he'll figure out how to leave the yard, but 2017 is not the season to bank on it without a major change to his approach." Well, that approach has changed. We posted a note on Alonso on 3/24/17 that talked about his new approach to go to all fields and the stats backed it up, but unfortunately the news came too late for me to factor into my keeper decisions. Anyway, Alonso is not the Alonso of the five previous years. When a guy gets off to this sort of start, I buy in IF there is something different — a change in swing path, not trying to pull every pitch, etc. No, he's not going to hit 50 home runs, but 25-30? I don't see why not.