The Z Files: Recalibrating Expectations, Pitching Edition

Last week, I discussed hitters whose rest-of-season outlook has changed the most from my initial expectations. This week the pitchers will be reviewed.

Setting the parameters, this isn't a list of the most disappointing pitchers, but rather those whose projected earnings exhibit the largest differences. Closers and injured hurlers aren't included.

In short, I update my personal projections weekly. The projected earnings remain on a $260 scale so the amounts can be compared directly. The amounts shown are my initial (INI) expectation and rest-of-season (ROS) projected earnings for 15-team mixed leagues. The order is smallest to biggest difference.

Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels (INI $9, ROS $5): It should be pointed out $4 isn't much in terms of projected value, which by extension suggests it won't take much of a turnaround for Shoemaker to be back on pace. The righty hasn't been as sharp, walking a career high along with allowing more homers than ever. I'm not a believer that first and second half splits are predictive. However, last season Shoemaker's walks and homers dropped after the All-Star break, which does tell me he's capable of making adjustments. Shoemaker is healthy, works half the time in a pitcher's park and is fanning nearly a batter an inning. Sure, expectations are down a little, but I'm not panicking.

Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers (INI $7, ROS $2): A common theme with these will be that some of the delta between earnings is the result of an aggressive initial projection. While one of my personal rules of thumb is to see a second season of improved control before completely buying in, I admittedly jumped on the Davies bandwagon after just one season of improved control. An offshoot of walking fewer hitters is working deeper into games. As such, another aspect of my optimism for Davies was throwing upwards of 180 innings. We're only about a quarter of the way through, but my sense is I'm one year too early on Davies. He should be serviceable in mixed leagues, but I was hoping for more than that.

Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals (INI $2, ROS $-4): Coming into the season, Hammel profiled as a streamer in mixed leagues, so his downgrade isn't going to cause a fantasy squad to lose. You can look at his numbers and suggest he's been victimized by a high hit rate, which is true, but the truth of the matter is once that normalizes, we're still dealing with a below average starter with low win and whiff potential. Even in American League only formats, there's nothing to see here.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves (INI $16, ROS $10): Where do I begin. I've been very outspoken lately. Teheran's issues aren't home versus away but his continued struggles with left-handed swingers. Yes, the bulk of the homers he's allowed are to lefties at SunTrust Park, but the operative aspect of that is lefty, not an inability to pitch at home. That said, at least to this point of the season, SunTrust Park is inflating left-handed homers by 35 percent while deflating righty power by 15 percent. Anecdotally this matches what many expected from the new venue, but it's way too soon for this to be considered fact. Along with still getting crushed by lefties, Teheran hasn't been as dominant versus righties. This is a weird season with all the injuries and underperforming hurlers. There aren't many places to turn for starting pitching reinforcement. Call me crazy, but I'm looking at Teheran as someone that can still make a difference. So if you have him, call me with an offer.

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays (INI $1, ROS $-6): Earlier, it was specified injury wasn't going to be a reason to include someone on this list. I decided to include Snell, since he's not hurt, he's in Triple-A. The initial expectation was as a matchup guy, in play at home in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Park. My hope was he'd sharpen his control, becoming a road options as well, in large part due to an above average strikeout rate. Well, not only did Snell continue to walk the ballpark, his whiffs fell as well. To date, he's only had one start with Durham, punching out 12 with just two free passes in 5.1 frames. Obviously, if he keeps that up, he'll be back in St. Petersburg. I'm not looking to drop him, but if I need the roster spot, he's gone.

Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (INI $26, ROS $19): Coming into the season, Arrieta was fourth on my starting pitcher board. I honestly feel guilty not having shares since I prefer putting my money where my mouth is. The ranking was genuine; my draft strategy was to wait on pitching. Looking at the numbers, it's easy to call him unlucky. His whiff and walk rates are better than last season. He's been snake bit by a high batting average on balls in play and home run per fly ball rate. This has yielded an actual 4.80 ERA higher than his 3.92 FIP and 3.80 xFIP. The problem with this is his velocity is down across the board. My sense is he's indeed going to see better days, probably in the high-threes range as suggested by the expected ERAs. My mistake was not factoring last season's velocity drop into my original projections. I was far too optimistic. To be honest, I probably should have landed Arrieta in the 3.50 range as opposed to 2.88. I can at least table a case for mid-threes. I'd take the over, but it's still within the range of plausibility.

Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees (INI $20, ROS $13): To a lesser degree, Tanaka is a lot like Arrieta. He was higher in my preseason ranks than most, if not all, of my colleagues but I don't have much exposure. A good deal of my optimism stemmed from last season, as his swinging strike rate portended a higher strikeout rate than he recorded, so I projected a higher rate this season. I wasn't too much different in terms of ratios, but expecting 185 strikeouts, 20 more than last season, propelled Tanaka up my ranks. Here's the weird part. Tanaka's swinging strike rate is even better than last season but his strikeouts are down. Unto itself, this would be something to hang the proverbial hat on, but of course, I'm burying the lead. Tanaka's allowed 13 homers in 48 innings. That's a 2.44 HR/9. Jason Vargas' ERA is lower than Tanaka's HR/9. While it's easy to chalk a 25 percent home run per fly ball rate up to bad luck, there's some bad pitching in there too. There has to be. Silly as this may seem, no one can be that unlucky without contributing some bad pitching. So even when Tanaka's fortune normalize, he's still going to be surrendering excessive homers unless he can figure out what's happening. There's definitely some improvement coming, perhaps even via more punch outs, but I'm not rushing to buy low.

Matt Harvey, New York Mets (INI $0, ROS $-8): It's well documented I've been off Harvey all season, and remain that way. A good deal of that is uncertainty with the long-term ramifications of thoracic outlet surgery. I'm not a doctor and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so I admit I'm not the most qualified to make the statement, but recall Phil Hughes also had the surgery and he's currently undergoing tests on his shoulder. There's no evidence, yet, that the issues are related. All I'll say is, this is the concern I have with Harvey. Even if his skills were fine, I'd still be reticent about the rest-of-season prognostication.

Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros (INI $7, ROS $-2): If you've been following the comments in the Pitching Ranking column, you know I've taken some heat over my obstinate stance on Musgrove. I expected a big rebound from his early season woes, and for a couple of starts, appeared prescient. But lately, I've been searching the Internet for healthy recipes to eat crow. My algorithm has finally caught up with Musgrove's struggles, dropping him out of fantasy relevance, at least in mixed leagues with 15 teams and fewer. As is the case with almost everyone on this list, his issues are a combination of too many walks and too many homers. Like the others, the gopheritis is exaggerated with bad luck, but there's also some bad pitching. I'm probably a year too early on Musgrove as well.

Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles (INI $10, ROS $-8): It's really not much solace, but at least I wasn't alone with Gausman. The irony is I finally bought in. After being in the "show me" group, I jumped to the "this is the year" camp. Add this to a growing list of poor life decisions. Gausman's velocity is fine. His pitch mix is normal. His hard hit rate is a little high, but not egregiously so. He just can't locate. His command and control are off, command being control within the strike zone. I'm not a proponent of benching underperforming players until they turn it around, since that means you missed the good stuff needed to counter the bad stuff in the books. However, with Gausman, reserving him until he displays better control is defensible.

Before I go, just a quick word on the other end of the spectrum. Because the overall pitching bar has been lowered this season, the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale are even more influential. If you're looking to deal an ace, make sure you get back a huge package. The buffer they give to your ratios this season is even greater than usual, allowing you to absorb some lesser performances while padding strikeouts and perhaps wins. Not to mention, owning Kershaw, Scherzer and Sale make trolling for saves easier since you're not as concerned about lesser ratios from your relievers.