Mound Musings: A Scouting Notebook

I like to share things I watch for when observing a game. Normally, I watch parts of several games each day, tracking specific pitchers who I feel need to have their current status updated. Since I usually don't have the time/opportunity to watch multiple outings, I look for some things that can quickly give me an idea of what to expect.

Some key observations can help you predict the future.

Obviously, I check the statistical side of things, but then I try to match up those numbers up with actual observation. Think of it as a scouting ledger – some observations go on the "asset" side and some go on the "debit" side. We aren't looking to balance the books, but we are looking for arms that can load up the positive side of the equation.

Always keep in mind, especially with limited observation, some pitchers can be pretty erratic. That's especially true of the younger ones who can look like world-beaters for a few innings and then lose their edge just as quickly. Pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale rarely lose that edge, but we know what to expect from them. At this point in the season, you'll want to concentrate on potential waiver wire additions, and pitchers who are either underperforming or outperforming expectations.

Here are some things I love to see:

• Get ahead in the count early – You hear this a lot these days. Most starting pitcher outings include first pitch strikes thrown in the assessment. It's always been critical, but it does seem to get more attention now. There's a good reason. Hitters are very good at what they do. Obviously, pitchers can't throw meatballs to the middle of the strike zone on every first pitch. Hitters would quickly catch on. But, getting ahead with a quality first pitch strike is a big advantage. It keeps the options open, and reduces the ability for hitters to eliminate specific pitches and locations from their expectations. When a hitter can look only for specific pitches in specific locations, they become infinitely more dangerous. Incidentally, the count scales go beyond the first pitch. It has been said that the 1-1 pitch is the most important pitch in a sequence. Miss, going to 2-1, and the advantage swings heavily in the hitter's favor, knowing the pitcher must throw a strike. Getting a strike, going to 1-2, and the pitcher is in control.

• Bounceback with the next hitter (or next inning) – I won't spend a lot of time on this one, but it does speak pretty clearly to mound presence and demeanor. How does your guy react to a couple blooped hits, a bad error behind him or a long home run on a poorly placed pitch? Remember in the movie Major League when the manager suggested they leave Ricky Vaughn in the game to see how he responded following a mammoth grand slam? Now, I'm not saying your guy's next pitch should be a 97 mph fastball under the hitter's chin, but how he handles that next batter can tell you a lot. Does he seem reluctant to throw strikes? Is he noticeably shaken, with notable body language that suggests a drop in mound presence? Pitchers with the best futures can let it go and move on quickly. Filthy, well-placed pitches to the next hitter speak volumes.

• When the going gets tough … And, perhaps as an extension of the last favorable observation, I want to see how a pitcher routinely handles a serious jam. You know the story line. A sharp single, an umpire-induced walk, a bloop, and now you're doing one of two things. The television announcer comments on a graphic suggesting your pitcher never has easily retired a hitter with runners in scoring position, and you begin to wring your hands while muttering some prayers. Or, you hurriedly head for the refrigerator, thinking the inning might well be over with little or no damage before you can get back. Yu Darvish is one of the best I have ever seen at this (and one of the reasons I am such a fan). Some pitchers have an innate ability to take their game to the next level when needed. The benefits over an entire season are pretty obvious.
  

• Shaking off too many pitches – I think this might be considered a personal preference that has come about after years of observation. Catchers who advance to the highest level of the sport typically have a well-defined ability to read and interpret both the hitter's mindset and their pitcher's most effective repertoire on that day. There are certainly exceptions, of course, but in my experience, the pitchers who mostly rely on the pitch selection and location suggested by their catcher tend to fare better. Job No. 1 for a catcher in the eyes of most is calling and managing a game. They do their homework, and they're generally extremely thorough. And, the pair can be totally in tune and "on the same page" throughout. This eliminates, or at least minimizes, the need for the pitcher to pick and choose the pitch mix. Therefore, the pitcher can focus on execution, and the results are often better.

• Wasting too many "waste" pitches – Obsession with pitch counts is (probably unfortunately) a key factor in pitching success. Managers count every pitch and often have a pretty hard limit depending on the pitcher. That said, efficiency has to be considered when assessing a pitcher's value. So, a typical "waste" pitch with a 0-2 or 1-2 count is a bit of a misnomer. I'm not advocating throwing every pitch in the strike zone; that would be dangerous, but those "waste" pitches should be part of an efficient plan. Hitters normally pick up the ball as it leaves the pitcher's hand. If they can immediately see it won't be close to the strike zone, that's an easy take. The manager clicks his pitch count clicker, and your guy is one pitch closer to exiting the game. Watch for pitcher's who routinely throw "waste" pitches that look at least tempting to opposing hitters.

• Failing to finish him off – This is an annoying failure in my book. When a pitcher gets ahead in the count, with two strikes, the better ones typically finish off that hitter. No, they don't retire every hitter in that scenario, but you'll find yourself expecting an out. Did you know that the league average for batters with two strikes is just .173 and the Nationals' lineup, hitting .202, is the best at two-strike hitting? Big advantage pitcher! Some hitters protect better and can foul off good pitches to stay alive, but watch for that pitcher who consistently puts away hitters when he gets the count advantage. Also note that command issues often come out here. With two strikes, the pitcher doesn't always have to throw a strike, much less a strike in the middle of the plate.
  

• I'm a little concerned about the Nationals' Joe Ross. He looks pretty good at times but can then lose his release point, resulting in flat pitches and a significant drop in velocity (last time out, he dropped from about 94 mph to 89 mph on his fastball). There has been no report of an injury, but this needs to be monitored.

• Oakland's Kendall Graveman has found his way onto the DL for the second time this season with shoulder soreness. No report on severity at this time, but ongoing shoulder woes are always a red flag. I haven't been a big believer in Graveman, but this is enough to permanently scare me away from him.

• It's rare when I watch a pitcher making his major league debut and he loads up the positive side of the ledger. San Diego's Dinelson Lamet really stood out. So, I watched his next start, and I liked a lot again. Good stuff, good composure. There are still some rough edges to be sure, but I'm a buyer on this guy.

• Boston's David Price made his 2017 debut. Overall, it was an encouraging outing, marred by just one mistake that ended up a three-run home run. There was rust, needing 88 pitches to cover five innings, but the time off could actually help him after he's pitched more than 220 innings each of the last three seasons.

• Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks has suddenly found the strike zone, and opposing hitters aren't enjoying the discovery. He has now logged three straight scoreless outings, including a four-hit shutout with no walks and 10 punch outs on Tuesday. It was his first MLB complete game and shutout. Take notice.

• I was also able to catch a bit of the Royals' Eric Skoglund's first start against the Tigers. There was nothing too surprising about his stuff; it was all good but not great. What did stand out was his command of the zone, consistently on the edges of the plate, and his mound presence, displaying some confidence.
  

The Padres may be dancing the closer shuffle in their bullpen. Brad Hand got a couple of saves last weekend, but Brandon Maurer was back in the ninth inning Sunday and Monday (Hand pitched the eighth). I do expect Maurer to continue as the primary closer. The Angels' Huston Street is close to returning and may supplant Bud Norris as the team's closer if he can show he is back in form. A stretch of successful outings would increase his trade value. Kenley Jansen remains a premier closer with jaw-dropping peripherals for the Dodgers, but the team isn't giving him many save opportunities. I think it's safe to say Edwin Diaz has smoothed things out and is again the primary end gamer in Seattle. Watch his next few outings, but he has looked much better.