Mound Musings: The Biggest Surprises so Far

Every season at about this time, I like to take a look at the first half and evaluate the biggest surprises. Most years there are quite a number of pitchers on both sides of the ledger – those who have been surprisingly successful (at least in my eyes), and those who have struggled to meet their preseason expectations. This year was notably different. I had to dig pretty deep to find a handful of arms who have surprised me with outstanding starts, while there was no shortage of disappointments.

This week, I would like to feature the few pitchers who have impressed me with solid numbers at about the halfway point in the season. Next week, we'll flip the coin and I'll throw out some pitchers who have been battered way too often in the early months of 2017. Some of these may be risks for the second half, but next week, some I'll cover may be ready to turn the corner and give their fantasy team a boost.

Some selected pitchers making a positive impact in the first half:

Alex Wood (Dodgers) – What a bonus Wood has been! He's 8-0 with a microscopic 0.92 WHIP and an equally impressive 1.86 ERA. He's also struck out 79 in just 67 innings. That stat line is arguably better than teammate Clayton Kershaw, albeit with a significantly lighter pitching schedule. Therein lies the potential red flag. Wood owes some of his success to a rather volatile pitching motion. Hitters have a difficult time picking him up, but that motion also takes a toll on his arm. He has a long history of arm trouble, having spent time on the disabled list with shoulder (this year) elbow and forearm woes, which has forced the Dodgers to closely manage his workload. Even if he can stay healthy, his peripherals will be a challenge to maintain. The Dodgers are enjoying a magical season, and Wood will try to remain an integral part of it. He'll help you as long as he can continue to take the mound, just be aware his contributions will likely continue to be limited by health concerns.

Jason Vargas (Royals) – Vargas is a bit of an anomaly this season, and not just because he is 11-3 with a mediocre team. The soft-tossing 34-year-old is enjoying a career year in a season where many finesse pitchers are really struggling. With a diminished strike zone and less consistent calling of balls and strikes, pitchers who need the bottom of the zone and the edges of the plate are often getting hit, as they have been forced into the middle of the dish. Vargas throws strikes, and not just strikes, but quality strikes. He has walked just 20 in 94 innings and he tends to minimize the hard hits so his WHIP of 1.13 and his ERA of 2.29 have been a fantasy boon, despite a low strikeout rate. He has experienced a high strand rate, and his BABIP (.287) probably isn't sustainable, all of which leads me to believe he will have a very difficult time posting even similar numbers in the second half. I don't think he'll be horrible – he's very steady – but I do expect some adjustment, and the tighter strike zone almost assuredly will contribute to a tougher road going forward.

Robbie Ray (Diamondbacks) – This is one of my favorite "surprises" although I will admit, I'm not terribly surprised by his success. Being an admitted devotee of the big strikeout, I have always had a fondness for Ray's upside. Since his 2014 debut, he has shown steady progress, and I actually expect his development to continue. He is a power pitcher but he combines power with crisp movement. That combination has been, at times, both a blessing and a curse. He's one of those pitchers who might not be able to throw a ball straight, even if he wanted to. Too many walks and too many pitches, along with a tendency to allow homeruns in his hitter-friendly home park have slightly tarnished his overall numbers, but that tarnish is being polished off as he gets more and more comfortable on the mound. So far this year, Ray has piled up 119 strikeouts in just 94 innings, which gets him out of a lot of jams. He's a good one, and getting better.

Jose Berrios (Twins) – There were high expectations when Berrios made his MLB debut last season, but he clearly wasn't quite ready. "Not ready" often creates surprises in subsequent seasons, and that clearly has been the case here. He became a post-hype after-thought in many leagues. Berrios started this season back at Triple-A Rochester but got the call in mid-May. It appears he's now ready to show off his considerable talent. He has posted a strong 0.98 WHIP with a 2.98 ERA in nine 2017 starts while logging seven wins. He and veteran Ervin Santana (he nearly made this list) have been the focal point of the Twins' amazing first half as they hover at or near the top of their division. Berrios doesn't profile as an ace, but he pitches smart with a solid repertoire of pitches he throws for strikes. He's not overpowering, but he misses enough bats to average about a strikeout per inning. His home park is relatively pitcher-friendly, so even though he might not quite continue to produce his early season peripherals, he's likely to remain a fantasy asset for years to come.

Gio Gonzalez (Nationals) – Perhaps the biggest surprise for Gio is not the seven wins and 2.87 ERA – both very appealing – but rather I'd say it's the fact that he has already accumulated over 100 innings. For virtually his whole career, the breaking ball specialist has struggled to stay in the strike zone, inflating free passes, pitch counts and early departures. Things have improved, but the control issues haven't gone away completely. He has issued 45 walks and rarely gets much beyond six innings, but the heavy-hitting Nats often give him some early run support, and he logs enough strikeouts (95) to escape some jams. Some advanced metrics suggest a correction to his ERA is coming (his FIP is a lofty 4.43) but that is predicated primarily on a low BABIP of .266, and there is some reason to hope that he can avoid such a drastic adjustment. If Gonzalez can keep the breaking pitches close enough to keep hitters swinging, he can somewhat maintain his early season success, but I'm always afraid those hitters will revert to ignoring the off-speed stuff and focus on his fastball; a recipe for hard hit balls.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• It's taken a long time to see the White Sox' Carlos Rodon on the mound, but it was worth the wait. The line wasn't anything special, as he lacked a good feel for his slider early on – his most important pitch – and ran up a high pitch count. I love his upside, and he looked healthy. I'm very optimistic going forward.

• The Reds were really hoping to get healthier, but it hasn't gone according to plan. Homer Bailey struggled in his first 2017 start, as the rust was evident, then their best starter, Brandon Finnegan, lasted just three innings in his first start in more than two months, before leaving with another shoulder ailment.

• I like the adjustments Kevin Gausman has made. He's staying on top of the ball better, resulting in more consistent movement on his pitches, and by moving his starting point on the mound toward the first base side, he seems to be finding the strike zone a bit easier. Baby steps, yes, but in the right direction.

• After a couple of clinkers, I was getting concerned about Stephen Strasburg, so I watched the first few innings of his start against the Cubs. Never mind. The first three innings, nine batters, nine first pitch strikes, six punchouts and a line of hitters shaking their collective heads.

• I always enjoy getting to watch one of my all-time favorites pitch. Such was the case Tuesday when James Paxton faced Philadelphia. Yes, he can lose his release point, and his stride can get short at times, but when he's locked in, he's just filthy. Whatever the line, he's definitely worth the price of a ticket.

• Arguably the best pitching prospect in the game, Julio Urias, underwent anterior capsule surgery on his shoulder. Dynasty owners may want to hang on and hope for the best, but he'll miss the rest of this season, and most, if not all, of next year. Expect a long, and sometimes unpredictable, recovery timeline.
  

Concerns just ballooned for Koda Glover owners, as it was announced that he's dealing with both back problems and inflammation in his rotator cuff – a much more serious problem. His time off is now indefinite, and there is simply no one qualified to take over a full time closing gig internally. Santiago Casilla continues to scuffle but he also continues to close in Oakland. Sean Doolittle has been almost untouchable since returning from the disabled list, suggesting the A's are afraid to overwork him. The Giants again placed Mark Melancon on the disabled list with a pronator strain (the second time this season), but there is no structural damage. Word is they plan to use Sam Dyson to close games, but that doesn't make a whole lot of sense, and Hunter Strickland (the logical guy) got the first opportunity. This smacks of a committee. Toronto's Roberto Osuna has been dealing with an anxiety disorder. One of the game's elite closers, he sure looked dominant in his last couple of outings. The Orioles' Zach Britton has reported no setbacks in his rehab outings so he's probably in line to return next week. Seattle's Edwin Diaz is making me nervous.