This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
RISING
Mike Gillislee, RB, NE
There might be more recent hype around Gillislee than any other player in fantasy football. Upon his initial arrival to New England in April, the consensus seemed to place him around the 10th-round range, but in the past few weeks he's approached the sixth/seventh-round part of the draft. Nothing changed with the Patriots, so Gillislee's rising price is almost entirely driven by narrative. Whereas in the spring the narrative was that Gillislee might replace LeGarrette Blount's role in the New England offense, the narrative at this point is that he will replace Blount. It could very well be the case, and Gillislee would be well worth a sixth-round pick if it is. Indeed, he'd be worth even more than that if he fully seizes the role that let Blount total 18 touchdowns last year.
Jamison Crowder, WR, WAS
After Gillislee, I'd guess Crowder has seen the second-most favorable reception in recent weeks, with his ADP inching up from the sixth-round range into the fifth and even fourth rounds. The change was precipitated by comments made by coach Jay Gruden, who spoke glowingly of the third-year wideout and made clear a bigger, more diverse role is in store for him in 2017. After working primarily out of the slot in his first two years, Crowder should almost never leave the field in 2017, which should mean plenty of snaps at the outside receiver positions, too. Crowder could be the most targeted player on
RISING
Mike Gillislee, RB, NE
There might be more recent hype around Gillislee than any other player in fantasy football. Upon his initial arrival to New England in April, the consensus seemed to place him around the 10th-round range, but in the past few weeks he's approached the sixth/seventh-round part of the draft. Nothing changed with the Patriots, so Gillislee's rising price is almost entirely driven by narrative. Whereas in the spring the narrative was that Gillislee might replace LeGarrette Blount's role in the New England offense, the narrative at this point is that he will replace Blount. It could very well be the case, and Gillislee would be well worth a sixth-round pick if it is. Indeed, he'd be worth even more than that if he fully seizes the role that let Blount total 18 touchdowns last year.
Jamison Crowder, WR, WAS
After Gillislee, I'd guess Crowder has seen the second-most favorable reception in recent weeks, with his ADP inching up from the sixth-round range into the fifth and even fourth rounds. The change was precipitated by comments made by coach Jay Gruden, who spoke glowingly of the third-year wideout and made clear a bigger, more diverse role is in store for him in 2017. After working primarily out of the slot in his first two years, Crowder should almost never leave the field in 2017, which should mean plenty of snaps at the outside receiver positions, too. Crowder could be the most targeted player on an offense that should score plenty of points, and playing outside means his average target depth should increase a fair amount.
Andy Dalton, QB, CIN
After a dud 2016 season that was largely the result of injuries to A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert, Dalton was a by-default bounce-back candidate heading into 2017. But the Bengals took further measures to make sure last year's scenario didn't repeat, adding two dynamite rookie talents in the draft with wideout John Ross and running back Joe Mixon. With Ross' truly incomparable speed pushing the safeties back and Mixon providing an All-Pro talent at the running back position, the Bengals will surely be in scoring position much more often. A return to his 30-touchdown routine would not be surprising.
Julius Thomas, TE, MIA
It'd be fair to suspect Thomas may have lost a step or two when glancing at his numbers from his two ill-fated seasons in Jacksonville. He averaged under 10 yards per catch in both seasons, scoring nine times while missing 10 games over that span. Ankle issues will likely follow Thomas for the duration of his career, but heading to Miami, where he'll return to an Adam Gase scheme in which he totaled 24 touchdowns over 2013 and 2014, could jump-start his career. The news out of Miami this offseason has been encouraging, and Thomas' arrival is part of why things are looking up.
Tyrell Williams, WR, LAC
It's never ideal when a player lands on the 'rising' list due to another player suffering an injury, but the herniated disc suffered by teammate and seventh overall pick Mike Williams improves the odds of Tyrell holding onto his starting role in the Chargers offense. I think Tyrell would have done it anyway – any rookie receiver would have a hard time beating out a 6-foot-4 target with borderline elite athleticism fresh off a 1,000-yard sophomore season, and I suspect it's Keenan Allen who was always at higher risk of getting replaced by Mike. But the back injury could delay Mike's training camp debut, and figures to limit him to some extent even beyond that point. Tyrell is falling as far as the 10th round in some drafts, but that will creep upward if Mike misses any training camp time.
FALLING
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
The league investigation into Elliott's off-field conduct and the consequent looming suspension risk took a turn for the worse Monday, when TMZ reported a witness' account that Elliott punched a man at a night club Sunday. No arrest was made and a second witness has since disputed the first, but in the context of the 2016 domestic abuse allegations toward Elliott and several other off-field transgressions, it could add up to a suspension of some sort. If Elliott should miss any time, Darren McFadden would suddenly become interesting.
Corey Coleman, WR, CLE
Talented as he might be, Coleman needs to shake his hamstring troubles for any of his abilities to be more than theoretical. He missed a great deal of time during OTAs, leading offensive coordinator Al Saunders to publicly lament the disruption the hamstring troubles have caused to Coleman's development. With Odell Beckham-like athleticism, the ceiling will always be high for Coleman, but the floor feels shaky right now. It's hard to see why Coleman would be worth drafting ahead of teammate Kenny Britt.
Mike Wallace, WR, BAL
Wallace was at one point a bargain in spring fantasy drafts, but then the Ravens signed Jeremy Maclin following his release from Kansas City. While he's a good player who has arguably enjoyed more success than Maclin in the NFL, Maclin was undoubtedly the better prospect between the two, and his arrival in any case poses significant harm to Wallace's target volume. After seeing 117 targets last year, Maclin's presence figures to push it down to the 100-target range. Throw in the fact that Wallace will be hard-pressed to maintain the 8.7 YPT he posted last year, and you've got a recipe for about 800 yards and five touchdowns.
Rishard Matthews, WR, TEN
Like Wallace, Matthews is a fine player, but one whose target volume is limited after the Titans heavily fortified their skill positions in the offseason. First there was the fifth overall selection of Corey Davis, with third-round picks Taywan Taylor (WR) and Jonnu Smith (TE) posing further threats. Then the Jets released Eric Decker, allowing the Titans to scoop him up in free agency. The Titans offense looks like one of the most talented in the league, and Matthews will play a leading role after averaging 8.8 YPT with 945 yards and nine touchdowns last year, but his 108 targets might be the ceiling now that the previously mentioned targets are on board.
Matt Stafford, QB, DET
Stafford should be decent enough, especially since he never cost much to acquire in fantasy drafts. But the floor here might be a bit lower than what you'd guess at a glance. That's not because of Anquan Boldin's exit – Eric Ebron will do just fine as the team's main red-zone target. But it's fair to worry about whether Stafford will have the pocket space necessary to reliably get the ball to his receivers after left tackle Taylor Decker underwent surgery to repair a torn shoulder labrum in June, knocking him out until at least October but as late as December. Decker was a standout as a rookie, and the team was depending on him to anchor the offensive line.
