This article is part of our The Z Files series.
It's my job to keep up with the news, to know everything happening. That said, we're talking about 30 teams, 750 active players (with nearly that many on the disabled list) and 2,430 games. Sometimes stuff slips through the cracks. Occasionally, as I'm researching a player, I say, "Wow, I didn't know that." Well, I often use a different word than wow, but you get the point. Today, I'm going to discuss five hitters who have surprised me recently, one per standard 5x5 rotisserie category. Next week it'll be the pitcher's turn.
Batting Average
I know Miguel Cabrera is having an off year, but I thought it was more that his power was down. I didn't know his average has torpedoed to .255 through Wednesday's games. I've been seeing questions like, "drop Miggy for LoMo?" or "better hitter ROS, Miggy or Smoak?" Most of the time, the response is, "Miggy, better track record", or something like that. Now I'm torn.
Ironically, the track record is the reason I'm wary of a rebound. In 13 full seasons, Cabrera has hit below .300 just twice, recording a .294 mark in 2004 and .292 in 2008. His career average is .318. If this were someone else hitting 60 points below his career level, we'd chalk it up to a bad year, or bad luck, or some such.
I was expecting the narrative to be he must be playing with a sore back. And perhaps he is. But then I checked the numbers. He's
It's my job to keep up with the news, to know everything happening. That said, we're talking about 30 teams, 750 active players (with nearly that many on the disabled list) and 2,430 games. Sometimes stuff slips through the cracks. Occasionally, as I'm researching a player, I say, "Wow, I didn't know that." Well, I often use a different word than wow, but you get the point. Today, I'm going to discuss five hitters who have surprised me recently, one per standard 5x5 rotisserie category. Next week it'll be the pitcher's turn.
Batting Average
I know Miguel Cabrera is having an off year, but I thought it was more that his power was down. I didn't know his average has torpedoed to .255 through Wednesday's games. I've been seeing questions like, "drop Miggy for LoMo?" or "better hitter ROS, Miggy or Smoak?" Most of the time, the response is, "Miggy, better track record", or something like that. Now I'm torn.
Ironically, the track record is the reason I'm wary of a rebound. In 13 full seasons, Cabrera has hit below .300 just twice, recording a .294 mark in 2004 and .292 in 2008. His career average is .318. If this were someone else hitting 60 points below his career level, we'd chalk it up to a bad year, or bad luck, or some such.
I was expecting the narrative to be he must be playing with a sore back. And perhaps he is. But then I checked the numbers. He's fanning a little more, but not nearly enough to account for the drop. Homers are hits too, so a drop in power costs some points in average, but not this many. That leaves batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
Here's the fun part. His BABIP is obviously down, but his line drive and hard-hit rate are higher than his career norm. He's not being shifted more than previous seasons. Cabrera's back may be an issue, but it's not affecting contact or how hard he's hitting the ball. He's been unlucky, at least with respect to BABIP.
There could be a partial explanation for the power decline. He's hitting more balls the other way, and while he's always had opposite field power, in his salad days Cabrera would pull half his long balls. Now, the majority are to center and right. Comerica Field is most generous to right-handed pull hitters.
So, who would I recommend, Miggy, Smoak or LoMo? My latest rankings have them Smoak, Morrison and Cabrera. However, this bakes in Cabrera missing about seven games while the others miss fewer. With equal plate appearances, it's a dead heat. All things considered, give me Smoak the rest of this season. If I need some upside, I'll take Cabrera over Morrison. It's close enough to penalize Cabrera as the most likely to miss time down the stretch, but if he plays, and the luck neutralizes, his ceiling is higher than Morrison.
Home Runs
I realize Mike Moustakas is having a career year, I just didn't know the extent. Perhaps it's because when I use him in DFS, he doesn't come through, so I'm biased. Granted, he's hit nine of his 32 big flies in the past month so it's easy to lose sight of the total, but still, 32 caught me off guard.
While his home run per fly ball is high at 19 percent, he did register that same level last season, albeit in only 27 games. The primary impetus is a leap to a 49 percent fly ball mark. Moustakas always hits a bunch of flies, but this season he's hit more than ever.
The odd thing is Moustakas' fly ball and home run distance are down from the past couple of seasons. This suggests he's been a bit lucky. My current projection is for 11 more dingers. I'll take the under, and may even take the under on him hitting 40 for the season.
Runs Batted In
Granted, the Kansas City Royals are 23rd in runs per game, but I was shocked to see Lorenzo Cain with only 36 RBI. He's having a solid campaign, batting .287 with 12 homers while avoiding injury. He's hit third for 373 of his 459 plate appearances. His batting average with runners in scoring position isn't terrible at .270; it's just that he's only had 86 such chances. Much of that is due to the likes of Alcides Escobar, Alex Gordon and Jorge Bonifacio hitting in from of him for much of the first half. Whit Merrifield's been an improvement, but despite hitting .300, his OBP is just .337.
Since the acquisition of Melky Cabrera, Cain's been hitting second, so don't expect a huge uptick in RBI down the stretch. In terms of fantasy, Cain's already matched last season's playing time. He's about 100 plate appearances from the reasonable number you should have planned on coming into the season. That's 20-25 games, so with 49 remaining, chances are good Cain at least meets expectations. His runs plus RBI will be down, but not egregiously should he surpass 25 games played the rest of the season and continue to score runs at a strong clip. Part of prudent in-season management is recognizing unexpected shifts in runs and RBI pace and adjusting accordingly, so it's not fair to say your team is suffering due to Cain's low RBI.
Runs
He's getting older, and has foot issues, but how can Albert Pujols have crossed the plate only 37 times? Even more baffling is he's knocked 17 out of the park, meaning he's only crossed the plate 20 times without giving himself an assist. Maybe the bigger shock is Pujols's OBP is a meager .270. Or perhaps the biggest bombshell is Pujols' walk rate is in Adam Jones territory. Well, almost. I'll cop to being completely naïve to how Pujols' walk rate has been plummeting the past several years.
Thinking about it, it makes sense. He's not nearly as dangerous as in the past, so why not come after him. The Angels offense has been weak for the past few seasons (other than that Mike Trout guy) so the danger of the lower part of the order driving Pujols in is slim, especially considering he's a station-to-station runner when he's on.
I suppose everything here makes perfect sense. In my mind, Pujols is still a decent source of power with a lower average. Considering one of my preseason crusades is don't ignore runs and RBI, I cop to completely whiffing on recognizing the likely drop in runs.
Stolen Bases
I swear, I didn't realize I was about to discuss a third Royals hitter until typing the heading for this section. I even went back to see if I could find another example of a surprise stolen base contributor, but no one caught me off guard as much as Whit Merrifield. I recognized this a few weeks ago when doing some DFS research, as Merrifield was curiously projected as the top option at second base. The reason was his high steals total, plus he was facing the Chicago White Sox, one of the easiest clubs to run on.
Looking back at Merrifield's minor-league career, he always could swipe a bag, though some seasons his success rate wasn't that great. That said, he was successful on 20-of-22 attempts at Triple-A Omaha before being promoted last season, then nabbed 8-of-11 in the bigs. Looking back, the bigger mistake was not having Merrifield on my radar as a possible cheap source of steals, especially when I knew how valuable under-the-radar pilferers would be this season.
Based on his success rate and the Royals' style of play, there's no reason Merrifield won't continue to run when he has the chance. If you need steals, he's a great target.
What hitters are surprising you? Let me know in the comments and maybe I can help figure out what's happening. Let's save arms until next week.
