NFL Barometer: WR Questions in Arizona

RISING

J.J. Nelson and Jaron Brown, WR, ARZ

I don't enjoy the morbidity of noting that a player's stock is on the rise due to the misfortune of another, but with John Brown again suffering from muscle recovery issues, perhaps as a complication of his sickle cell trait condition, the once-emerging star wideout's long-term future faces as much uncertainty as ever. There's a real possibility that he's not available at all, or on some sort of limited, unpredictable basis going forward.

If Brown is unable to play, the players who would likely see the greatest increase in activity would be Nelson and Jaron Brown. Jaron would be the technical starter, according to coach Bruce Arians, though it's easy to argue that Nelson profiles as the better fantasy option. Both players could prove useful at their current ADPs, so it doesn't need to be a one-or-the-other scenario.

Jaron (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) is easy enough to overlook – he's been a bench player for the entirety of his pro career, as well as his four seasons at Clemson. That fact is a major hindrance to his prospect profile, but there are reasons to think he can overcome it. It's easy to forgive him for his career-backup status because he played behind Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and John Brown in the NFL, and at Clemson he played behind a preposterous wideout rotation of Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, and Martavis Bryant. (Adam Humphries and Charone Peake were also on that team.) Brown's workout metrics are also encouraging – he posted a pro day time of 4.40 seconds in the 40-yard dash, along with a 35.5-inch vertical, 124-inch broad jump, and 10.89 agility score. To summarize, his production background can only be held against him so much, while his athletic tools are definitely above the average. If opportunity is really there at long last, he should project as a reasonably productive player.

Of course, as subtly encouraging as Jaron's profile might be, there's more obvious reason to see upside in Nelson, who by any standard is one of the most explosive big-play threats in the NFL. Nelson is exceedingly small at just 5-foot-10, 160 pounds, but he is a skilled receiver with untapped open-field running skills, and the 4.28-second 40 time is certainly a nice touch. His downfield receiving prowess is obvious after his first 101 NFL targets yielded 867 yards and eight touchdowns on just 45 receptions (19.3 YPC), and he had a long history of doing the exact same thing at UAB. Nelson finished his college career with 2,273 yards (19.6 YPC) and 20 touchdowns on 116 catches, and his two special teams touchdowns from 2014 imply he has after-the-catch upside, too.

Vance McDonald, TE, SF

After the 49ers previously (intentionally or not) leaked to media that they were generally unimpressed with McDonald, tipping reporters that they had not only attempted to trade McDonald earlier in the offseason but might even cut him before the start of the regular season, the tune has suddenly changed.

GM John Lynch said the 49ers are "very pleased" with McDonald, who at this point once again looks like the heavy favorite to start at tight end for the 49ers. I'm a fan of rookie fifth-round pick George Kittle and consider him a better prospect than what McDonald was coming out of Rice, but as a fifth-year veteran, McDonald is almost certainly the more polished product for now. In a Kyle Shanahan offense that funneled red-zone targets to the tight end position in past years, McDonald has subtle fantasy upside as a player who costs basically nothing in drafts. His hands are bad, but at 6-foot-4, 267 pounds with 4.69 speed and a 34-inch vertical, McDonald ranks among the top raw athletic talents at tight end.

Zay Jones, WR, BUF

Jones' projection benefited enough from the Sammy Watkins trade alone, but it saw another slight boost when the less talented Watkins replacement, Jordan Matthews, cracked his sternum in practice. Matthews appears close to probable for Week 1 despite the injury, but his absence and the lack of solid certainty on his Week 1 status means the Bills will have to lean that much more on Jones for first-team practice targets and general game planning to start the year.

As a rookie in a low-volume passing game that figures to see its efficiency decrease significantly without Watkins, there's not much reason to expect explosive numbers from Jones, but the second-round pick at least has a chance to provide a high floor for his acquisition cost, especially in PPR formats. He set the FBS single-season record with 158 receptions in 12 games last year, and at the moment he's practicing next to a receiver crew otherwise headlined by Anquan Boldin and Corey Brown. Given Jones' remarkable college production (399 catches in 49 games) and excellent athletic profile, there's reason to think Buffalo leans on Jones out of the gate.

Josh Doctson, WR, WAS

After sitting out since August 6 with a hamstring pull, Doctson is expected to see his activity level escalate over the upcoming days following a partial return to practice Wednesday. The 2016 first-round pick has a humble profile at this point – he basically missed all of his rookie season with Achilles' tendon issues, and he's clearly behind Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder in the game plan heading into 2017. There's even talk that 2014 fifth-round pick and likely career non-factor could take Doctson's WR3 spot on the depth chart.

But so long as he stays healthy in his return to practice, the fact that Doctson is a much better player than Grant will bear out in an obvious way, and Doctson's push to emerge as a real front line contributor in what should be a prolific Washington passing game can continue. So long as he clearly establishes himself as that third wideout, there should be room for Doctson to prove useful in fantasy, especially given tight end Jordan Reed's long and diverse history of injury.

FALLING

John Brown, WR, ARZ

It would probably be overly grim to bring up the possibility of Brown's sickle cell trait threatening his career at this point, but a distinct sense of apprehension has set in at the very least. Brown is missing time with a quadriceps issue, and coach Arians not only largely attributed the injury to Brown's sickle cell trait, but even implied that the condition could complicate Brown's long-term standing in the offense (and perhaps even roster). There's tantalizing talent here – Brown has 4.34 speed and showed unique upside by totaling 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns (9.9 YPT) in his age-25 season in 2015, but the floor at this point is probably lower than most figured as recently as a month ago.

Ty Montgomery, RB, GB

I remain high on Montgomery in PPR formats, but even as one of his earliest, loudest advocates I was always nervous of the escalated injury risk he carried. As much as he was often able to play through it, Montgomery had a way of getting nicked up even during his days as a Stanford wide receiver. Shoulder and knee troubles were the headlining ailments at various points in 2013 and 2014, and he dealt with rib, ankle, and shoulder issues at various points last year. While the exact symptoms don't appear as severe as they do in John Brown's case, it must also be noted that Montgomery suffers from sickle cell trait. With all this noted, it's at least a little concerning that Montgomery is currently missing practice time with an unspecified leg issue.

Given the unconditional, universal injury risk carried by running backs in the NFL, I won't let Montgomery's injury history scare me off in the fourth and fifth-round range in PPR leagues. I feel like if he were guaranteed a 16-game season, he'd pay off as high as the second or third round in such formats. Still, anyone who otherwise drafted Montgomery hoping for week-to-week reliability should temper their expectations. He's definitely most useful in best ball formats.