Regan's Rumblings: 30 Teams, 30 Surprises

Every year we see guys break out and have the career year that was either inevitable or totally unexpected. We see players also fall off the map due to age or injuries, and we see young talent fail to live up to prior-year small sample sizes of strong performance. This week I'll look at one guy from each team that stood out to me with a stat line that I didn't see coming, either good or bad...

Arizona – Archie Bradley, RP – I don't know whether the Diamondbacks have given up on the idea of Bradley as a starter, but with this sort of success in the bullpen, that might be Bradley's long-term role. With a 1.33 ERA and 59:11 K:BB in 54 innings, Bradley still doesn't have a lot of value given his zero saves, but with Fernando Rodney being the current closer, that could change any day.

Atlanta – Dansby Swanson, SS - Swanson was looking like a solid pick Thursday year after batting .302/.361/.442 in 38 games last year. Unfortunately, he's been a massive bust, batting just .210/.281/.306. His ratios are fairly decent with a 9.2% BB% and 22.3% K%. Swanson is a former #1 overall pick and is just 23, but being promoted to the big leagues after just 87 games above A-ball makes me think he wasn't quite a finished product. I don't see him producing much this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend half of 2018 in Triple-A.

Baltimore – Tim Beckham, SS – With Willy Adames in Triple-A, the Rays elected to cash in on Beckham by dealing him to the Orioles. Beckham has shown signs (finally) of living up to his #1 overall pick status, batting .296/.344/.483 with 16 home runs and five steals. Perhaps soon he'll be known as someone other than "the guy picked ahead of Buster Posey". It's not all good, as Beckham's 6.4% BB% and 29.9% K% are right in line with his career averages. From a batted ball perspective, Beckham is hitting the ball harder

Boston – Rick Porcello, SP – From Cy Young to a 4.63 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, Porcello has been a massive disappointment for fantasy owners. That said, his K/9 is actually up from 7.6 to 8.3 while his BB/9, while also up, is still excellent at 1.8. He's just been far more hittable and the ground ball rate is way down, leading to a HR/9 spike from 0.93 to 1.66. I can see his 4.63 ERA coming down somewhat, but his 22-win 3.15 ERA season a year ago isn't happening any time soon, likely ever.

Chicago Cubs – Kyle Schwarber, "OF" – So much for the "the Cubs will be that much better with a full year of Schwarber" narrative. The 19 homers are about what we expected, but at .199/.310/.428, Schwarber has been a massive bust. A 31.3% K% doesn't seem like a metric that is coming way down anytime soon given he also fanned in 27.3% of his Triple-A PA's in that stint earlier in the year. A massive defensive liability, Schwarber looks to be headed to the AL this offseason where he can focus on his hitting.

Chicago White Sox – Avisail Garcia, OF – Garcia cooled off significantly after topping out at a 1.010 OPS on May 20, but he's rallied to start 9-for-20 in August. Garcia for the year is still batting a solid .311/.358/.494 with 13 homers and five stolen bases. A 4.7% BB% isn't good, but he has cut his K% over four points from last year to 21.2% in 2017 and he's showing more power. There's likely some skills growth here

Cincinnati – Scooter Gennett, 2B – Gennett isn't Dee Gordon, as he did hit 14 homers last year, but to see him at 20 in 2017 in 179 fewer at-bats is pretty shocking. .292/.341/.539 is Chase Utley in his prime type of numbers. I think he'll finish in the 25 home runs range, but given he's hitting just .255 in his last 30 games, expect that average to come way down.

Cleveland – Edwin Encarnacion, DH – I guess .253/.370/.486 with 26 homers isn't a huge disappointment, but I did expect more coming off five consecutive seasons of 34+ homers. Maybe he finishes strong, and he does have four homers in his last four games, and yes, maybe there is something to the theory that he needed time to adjust and that Cleveland isn't a weather-friendly place in April/May. I think he'll be ok.

Colorado – Trevor Story, SS – I whiffed on this one…big time. I guess in hindsight, a 31.3% K% should've been more skeptical of a guy with a 31.3% K% and .343 BABIP. Those numbers have regressed to 36.2% and .321 this season, and Story is batting just .222/.299/.399. Just as bad as the BA, Story had seen his power drop significantly with a .177 ISO versus last year's .295. Short term, expect more Pat Valaika and less Story. Longer term I see Story playing elsewhere and Brendan Rodgers being the team's shortstop of the future.

Detroit – Miguel Cabrera, 1B – I refuse to believe all of a sudden that Cabrera is a .253/.337/.406 hitter. Right now, if you were choosing between Cabrera and Cody Bellinger for the rest of this year and 2018, isn't Bellinger the choice? Cabrera is one of the best hitters of all-time and a surefire first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and given he's still just 34, he may still have an Ortiz-like second act coming. It's probably time he becomes a full-time DH, and given the Tigers are rebuilding, might a trade to Boston be a possibility this winter? Speculation aside, if you can buy low on Miggy, you do it.

Houston – Marwin Gonzalez, UT – It's a nice luxury for a team to have a utility guy batting .316/.392/.567 with 20 home runs, is it not? Given his 1.008 OPS versus RHP, you should be using him against any poor RHP in DFS, and he has also been a huge asset even in 12-team roto mixed leagues. A 9.7% BB% is well above anything he's done there previously, so at age 28, I see some real skills growth with this guy. It's just a matter of playing time at this point.

Kansas City – Whit Merrifield, 2B – I'm not completely convinced that the Royals have their best 2B since Frank White, but at .295/.331/.483, they have their guy at least short term. Merrifield has been a huge fantasy asset this year with 14 homers and 20 steals, allowing Raul Mondesi some much-needed development time in Triple-A. Merrifield is 28 with a spotty minor league record, so we can't say that THIS is who he is yet, but while I'm a bit skeptical, the worst I see happening this year is him hitting .260 the rest of the way.

LA Angels – Andrelton Simmons, SS – I thought the Angels were getting an elite defender / below average offensive shortstop, but while the former is still accurate, the latter is not. Simmons is having a career year at the plate, batting .301/.355/.457 with 12 home runs and a career-high 17 steals. Simmons' 7.7% BB% is the best of his career while his K% remains elite at just 10%. Simmons has a .945 OPS in his last 30 games, so he's not slowing down a bit. I'm buying the age-27 season improvement.

LA Dodgers – Alex Wood, SP - Wood has always had pretty good stuff, but staying healthy and consistent has been a challenge. Not so much this year.  Wood is 14-1 with a 2.37 ERA with solid ratios, including a 9.5 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Wood allowed 11 runs over 11.2 innings in a pair of recent outings, but his last two starts have been quality starts. He may not have the innings to win the NL Cy Young award, but he should finish strong enough to be in the discussion. 

Miami – Justin Bour, 1B – An oblique injury is expected to keep Bour out into September, but he's still taken a nice step forward with a .289/.366/.548 slash. The main reason for his success? How about this three-year trend in his OPS versus LHP: .573, .533, and this year, 1.028? 65 at-bats isn't a huge sample size, but it's still enough for me to think he's figured some things out. I like him quite a bit going forward, particularly if Giancarlo Stanton stays in Miami.

Milwaukee – Jonathan Villar, 2B – Imagine if the Brewers had sold high on Villar and kept Scooter Gennett. Villar has been so bad that the Brewers had to go out and trade for Neil Walker, as they are competing for a playoff spot and needed the upgrade desperately. It's not often that you see a guy's OBP drop from .369 one year to .282 the next, but that's Villar. The steals of course are way down as well (21 vs. 62). Villar has had a nice little run lately and he started in CF and led off on Tuesday, so the team obviously hasn't given up completely. He could be a cheap source of steals down the stretch, but the batting average floor is very low.

Minnesota – Byron Buxton, OF – I used to be the "Jeremy Hermida guy", and now I think I'm probably the "Buxton guy". I own him everywhere, waiting for that payoff that doesn't seem to be coming. He does have 20 steals, but imagine how many he'd have if he weren't hitting .232/.303/.326 near or at the bottom of the Twins' lineup. He has improved his BB% year over year from 6.9% to 9%, but his 29.6% K%, while improved, is still awful. Optimistically, Buxton is hitting .326/.396/.435 in 46 at-bats since returning from a groin injury, and I do think he can continue the momentum over the course of the year, though it's obviously not a guarantee.

NY Mets – Michael Conforto, OF – A .282/.388/.570 season with 26 homers in 344 at-bats has far exceeded expectations. Much of the improvement has come against left-handers, a group he is hitting .225/.303/.472 against this year. Not great, but certainly better than last year's putrid .104/.170/.125 (48 at-bats). He's playing every day and thriving now that he doesn't have to worry about playing time and being platooned. I believe in the talent.

NY Yankees – Gary Sanchez, C/DH – It's scary to think where the Yankees would be if they had the 2015 Greg Bird and 2016 Sanchez. For Sanchez, he's still hitting a decent .273/.350/.511 with 20 home runs, but considering he hit .299 last year with the same number of homers in 114 fewer at-bats, I'm calling him a disappointment. I do continue to think he'll be among the league's elite offensive catchers, but his defensive skills have been called into question by manager Joe Girardi, making his long-term defensive position a legitimate concern.

Oakland – Jharel Cotton, SP – Maybe the Dodgers know which guys to trade and which to keep. Cotton started strong, but he now has a 5-10 record, 5.92 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP. I've seen good stuff at times, including a 92.9 mph average fastball with movement, but with a 7.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9, I think his stuff will work much better out of the bullpen. Expect that move soon.

Philadelphia – Nick Williams, OF – I really didn't think the Rangers were missing much when they dealt Williams as part of the package for Cole Hamels. Here are some of his minor league K:BB ratios: 136:19, 110:15, 117:19, and 90:16. This year in Philly, that mark sits at a relatively decent 39:10, allowing Williams to put up a solid .294/.355/.507 slash line. He's so athletic that I can't give up on him as a potential offensive force, but with the strikeouts and walks being real issues still, I'm not a believer.

Pittsburgh – Josh Bell, 1B - The knock on Josh Bell as a prospect was always related to his potentially limited power upside. He did improve from seven to 17 homers last year, and now in his first full big-league season, Bell has 20 long balls and a .257/.333/.486 slash. With a 19.2% K% and .278 BABIP, Bell could certainly hit .280 the rest of the way.

San Diego – Jose Pirela, 2B – Pirela went from a minor league contract as a 27-year-old to the Padres' starting left fielder. As a Padre, Pirela is hitting an excellent .298/.359/.529 with eight homers in 56 games. Including his Triple-A time brings Pirela to 21 long balls to go with 11 steals. A 0.33 BB/K isn't great, but we've seen worse. He will likely slow down at some point, but I'm cautiously optimistic.

San Francisco – Mark Melancon, RP – Less than a year into a $60 million contract, Melancon had been a massive bust. Elbow issues have limited him to 21.2 innings, and in that time, he's put up a 4.14 ERA and blown four of 15 saves. That said, with an 8.3 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9, Melancon should be fine. He just needs to stay healthy and cut down on the home runs. I also don't see him being traded this month, though the offseason is possible should he finish strong.

Seattle – Yonder Alonso, 1B – At .218/.320/.333 since the All-Star break, Alonso has officially crashed down to Earth after putting up a 1.228 OPS in May after a .870 April. Overall, he's at .261/.359/.504, but this isn't a huge surprise to see the drop-off. Alonso is also still useless (.188/.278/.406) versus LHP, so while the change in his swing path and approach have garnered plenty of attention, it looks as if MLB pitchers have figured him out.

St. Louis – Paul DeJong, 3B – DeJong hit 22 homers in Double-A last year, but with a 26.1% K% and .360 BA, he wasn't on many radars. He is now. Between Triple-A and the big leagues, DeJong has hit 31 hone runs, and in St. Louis, he's batting .297/.326/.578 with 18 homers in 65 games. That's obviously very good, but on the downside, DeJong has a 3.8% BB% and 30.7% K%. Not very good. I'd expect the average to drop and for DeJong to be a utility player next year.

Tampa Bay – Logan Morrison, 1B - LoMo is hitting .257, which is about right in line with expectations, but his 28 home runs and .354 OBP are easily career bests over a full season. After three consecutive years with a sub-10% BB%, Morrison is at 14% this year, so he's seeing the ball better and hitting it harder. That said, the inevitable regression has already come. Morrison has a .675 OPS over his last 14 games and .670 over his last 30. If I had to guess, I'd say Morrison hits .240 with seven homers the rest of the way.

Texas – Elvis Andrus, SS – Dealing Andrus for Dansby Swanson wasn't one of my finer fantasy moments, but sure didn't see a 20-homer season coming after last year's career-high of eight. Andrus did take a nice step forward with 2016's .302/.362/.439 season, but he's taken it to another level at age 28. The 5.3% BB% remains low, but if you consider that his ISO has increased now in each of the last four seasons, I believe in the improvement.

Toronto – Justin Smoak, 1B - A .217 hitter last year and .234 for his career, Smoak is hitting .296/.372/.580 with 32 home runs. That's the home run total he had in 258 games from 2015-2016.  We all saw that coming, right? Two other numbers stand out: A K% of 20.4% versus 32.8% a year ago, and a 1.189 OPS vs LHP. Smoak had cooled off a little lately, but the improvement here looks real, even if he's an .850 OPS the rest of the way.

Washington – Ryan Zimmerman, 1B – After being tabbed Mr. April, Zimmerman has gotten hot again this month, batting .262/.354/.548, this after back-to-back sub-.800 OPS months. We were pretty sure he wasn't going to hit .350 with 50 home runs, so this regression shouldn't be a surprise. He's still going to finish in the range of .300-35-110, so if you held him all/most of the year, you're happy given your preseason expectations. It's tough to see him having another year like this going forward, but then again, it was tough to see this year as well.