NFL Barometer: Not Enough Cooks

RISING

Kareem Hunt, RB, KC

It's official: Spencer Ware is out of the picture after suffering a season-ending knee injury, and now the starting running back role is Hunt's to run with after the Chiefs selected him in the third round out of Toledo.

This is a prospect with middling workout metrics – Hunt (5-foot-10, 216 pounds) ran just a 4.62-second 40-yard dash and posted a 119-inch broad jump at the Combine – but the film and production variables in his prospect profile are of very high grades. The most impressive part of Hunt's profile is probably his work from 2014, when he ran for 1,631 yards and 16 touchdowns on just 205 carries, averaging a preposterous 8.0 yards per carry. I can't remember a player with a 200-carry volume approaching anything like 8.0 yards per carry. The closest thing I can recall is Dri Archer's 2012 season, when he averaged 9.0 yards per rush, but over 159 carries.

Ankle sprains were a problem for Hunt at a few points, and he generally looked less explosive late in his career than at the beginning, but at the very least he showed the ability to produce at a uniquely high rate over a big sample size. For whatever workhorse-type tasks the Chiefs may have in mind for him, he should health-permitting prove at least adequately effective.

One thing I'd caution with Hunt, though, is to not look specifically at coach Andy Reid's history when trying to imagine his potential outcomes this year. Much has been made on Twitter about the fantasy finishes of past Reid RB1s, but to expect a similar outcome here is to presume HOF-like greatness on Hunt's part regardless of his surrounding offense. Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and Jamaal Charles are three of the very best running backs I've seen in the 20 or so years I've paid close attention to the league, and as much as I like Hunt I suspect the odds of him being as good as any of those three are extremely slim.

Brandin Cooks, WR, NE

In light of Julian Edelman's ACL tear, Cooks is a clear first-round pick for me in 12-team leagues, and I wouldn't criticize anyone for taking him in the first eight picks. There is highly plausible 1,400-yard, 10-touchdown upside here now, and I wouldn't for a second rule out numbers even better than that.

Cooks won't turn 24 until Sept. 25, yet he already has 2,861 yards and 20 touchdowns to his credit at 9.1 yards per target. That alone puts him on a borderline star-level trajectory, and that particular outcome seems all the more likely when you factor in his prospect profile. Cooks was incredible at Oregon State, finishing a junior season he began at 19 years old with 128 receptions for 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns, not to mention another 217 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Throw in a 4.33-second 40-yard dash and 10.57 agility score, and you have reason to expect a high ceiling.

Stated more briefly, Cooks' career to this point has been quite good, yet he hasn't approached his best days. This would have been true in any setting, but in a Tom Brady offense it nearly feels like a certainty. It doesn't matter whether he plays outside or in the slot – he'll prove sufficiently explosive to provide big returns in whatever specific role he settles in.

Chris Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell, and Danny Amendola, WR, NE

I've listed these three in descending order of my expectation of fantasy value, but all three merit close inspection upon Edelman's ACL tear.

With Hogan, I think you're getting a pretty solid asset, and one with fair upside. Nearly a third (11) of his 38 receptions last year went for 20 or more yards, propelling a YPT of 11.7 on 58 targets. His YPT would likely regress anyway, but I wouldn't take Edelman's injury as a reason to worry about increased attention from defenses. He did his extensive damage last year despite Rob Gronkowski sitting out eight games, and Cooks at least matches the level of concern Edelman might have posed to defenses at the time. I expect Hogan's target volume to get to at least 80, with his YPT probably settling around 10.5, giving him a projection of about 840 yards, with maybe six to eight touchdowns.

With Mitchell, we have a talented player – a former blue chip recruit – whose realization of potential mostly hinges on durability. He had some injury issues at Georgia, with the five-star recruit most notably suffering a torn ACL in 2013. Elbow, hamstring, and knee issues all flared up in Mitchell's first NFL season, and the most recent knee ailment currently has him somewhat questionable to start the year. When he was on the field as a rookie, though, Mitchell was promising, turning 48 targets into 32 receptions for 401 yards and four touchdowns. Be it outside or in the slot, Mitchell can clearly make an impact if he gets the targets. I have nothing to offer on his odds of getting healthy enough to do so, though.

With Amendola, there's the tempting premise that he'll benefit most from the Edelman injury, because he's the only of these candidates who solely plays in the slot. But as much as Edelman is a slot receiver, his usage was not dictated by the scheme – his effectiveness (and Gronkowski's injuries) dictated that the scheme get him that usage, which happened to be in the slot. The Patriots will not be married to the idea of channeling its usage through the slot regardless of who's playing there, and by any measure, Amendola is not particularly close to Edelman's level. Instead, I think he provides a floor element in the slot, a known variable to lean on if Hogan, Mitchell, or whoever else are not producing sufficiently. To project more than 800 yards for Amendola, you'd have to project around 80 receptions. I wouldn't agree to that over 16 games, and Amendola has played 16 games twice in eight years.

If injuries should strike, keep a close eye on D.J. Foster, Devin Lucien, and Austin Carr, three undrafted youngsters who nonetheless showed strong production at times in college.

George Kittle, TE, SF

I probably wouldn't advocate owning Kittle outside of 16-team leagues at this point, but the Vance McDonald trade seemingly opens a starting role for the rookie fifth-round pick, and in a Shanahan offense that traditionally funnels targets to tight ends in the red zone.

While the historical struggles of rookie tight ends means that the odds are generally against Kittle in the short term, I have full confidence that he'll emerge as an above average starting tight end in the NFL. He first got on my radar a few years ago, when as an underclassman at Iowa he caught a pass for a long gain – I'm guessing his 47-yard catch against Southwest Missouri State in 2013. Whatever play it was, I was certain at the moment that this was a wide receiver, because he looked downright fast. Indeed, Kittle was a wide receiver-tight end tweener upon arriving to Iowa.

That he arrived as a wide receiver-type is significant because, by the time he left Iowa, Kittle was widely regarded as a blocking tight end. For such clearly standout athleticism to be erased from a tight end's narrative in favor of a blocking label is impressive, and reassuring for his NFL prospects because there's reason to believe that, as a standout blocker, he'll very rarely leave the field.

So when Kittle (6-foot-4, 247 pounds) ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at the Combine, adding a 132-inch broad jump, I was fully sold. That he fell to the fifth round of the draft didn't sway my opinion any – the NFL clearly made an error in letting him fall that far. How many standout blocking tight ends have you heard of with 4.52 speed?

So at the very least, what we have here is an elite athlete at tight end, playing in a tight end-friendly offense for a coaching regime that's clearly fond of him. Whether he's polished enough at this point to produce, or whether the offense around him will be good enough to grant him many opportunities, isn't as clear. But Kittle is on my short list of waiver wire options I'll be keeping a close eye on, and dynasty league owners should consider him a solid if not strong asset going forward. Consider this visual: even when compared to wide receivers, Kittle's 40 grades as about average despite his comparatively huge build, and his broad jump would be the envy of almost any player.