This article is part of our Survivor series.
This week, there are quite a few more options:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRONCOS | Giants | 31.60% | 637.5 | 86.44% | 4.28 |
| FALCONS | Dolphins | 22.80% | 625 | 86.21% | 3.14 |
| TEXANS | Browns | 21.20% | 450 | 81.82% | 3.85 |
| REDSKINS | 49ers | 17.40% | 412.5 | 80.49% | 3.40 |
| RAVENS | Bears | 2.30% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.61 |
| Patriots | JETS | 2.10% | 425 | 80.95% | 0.40 |
| TITANS*** | Colts | 0.50% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.17 |
| CHIEFS | Steelers | 0.20% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.07 |
| SAINTS | Lions | 0.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.06 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
***made-up line
Judging by the Vegas and the polling numbers, it's between the Patriots and Falcons. We could run through the math, but the edge for whoever wins will be small, and as we get into the season, the polling numbers get slightly noisier with re-buy and second-chance pools distorting the distribution.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
You've probably used them already, and they're on the road, but they should handle the Jets fairly easily with 10 days to prepare. Their defense also played a little better against the Bucs last week. I give the Patriots an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2.
This week, there are quite a few more options:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRONCOS | Giants | 31.60% | 637.5 | 86.44% | 4.28 |
| FALCONS | Dolphins | 22.80% | 625 | 86.21% | 3.14 |
| TEXANS | Browns | 21.20% | 450 | 81.82% | 3.85 |
| REDSKINS | 49ers | 17.40% | 412.5 | 80.49% | 3.40 |
| RAVENS | Bears | 2.30% | 275 | 73.33% | 0.61 |
| Patriots | JETS | 2.10% | 425 | 80.95% | 0.40 |
| TITANS*** | Colts | 0.50% | 200 | 66.67% | 0.17 |
| CHIEFS | Steelers | 0.20% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.07 |
| SAINTS | Lions | 0.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.06 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
***made-up line
Judging by the Vegas and the polling numbers, it's between the Patriots and Falcons. We could run through the math, but the edge for whoever wins will be small, and as we get into the season, the polling numbers get slightly noisier with re-buy and second-chance pools distorting the distribution.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
You've probably used them already, and they're on the road, but they should handle the Jets fairly easily with 10 days to prepare. Their defense also played a little better against the Bucs last week. I give the Patriots an 84 percent chance to win this game.
2. Washington Redskins
The Redskins are rested off their bye and face a 49ers team on its second straight road game, coming off a loss that took them to the very end of overtime. Washington is missing Josh Norman, but the 49ers aren't likely to exploit it. I give the Redskins an 86 percent chance to win this game.
3. Denver Broncos
The Giants offense is decimated, but their defense is largely intact, and this game could be low scoring and close. Still, I think Denver will break through eventually, and the Giants won't be able to answer. I give the Broncos an 85 percent chance to win this game.
4. Houston Texans
The Browns are arguably the worst team in the league, and the Texans offense is suddenly good with Deshaun Watson playing at a high level. But Houston's defense is vulnerable, and the Browns are less likely to give the game away now that DeShone Kizer's been benched. Still, I give Houston an 80 percent chance to win this game.
5. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons could destroy the Dolphins at home, but Atlanta's offense has been more sluggish of late, its receivers are banged up. and the Dolphins have the talent to play better should Jay Cutler ever answer the bell. Still, at home and off the bye, the Falcons should handle things. I give them an 80 percent chance to win this game.
6. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are stout defensively, and the Bears have no passing game whatsoever. But the Ravens' offense is also terrible, and the Bears can at least run the ball. I give the Ravens a 74 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Tennessee Titans - If Marcus Mariota were declared healthy, you could consider this one, but it's Monday night, and I doubt we'll know in time. Even if he starts, he could pull a Sam Bradford. Stay away.
Kansas City Chiefs - With Travis Kelce concussed and a strong Steelers team in town, this is a tough game.
New Orleans Saints - They've looked great the last two games and are coming off a bye, but I still don't trust their defense, and the Lions are no doormat.
