This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week saw more widespread carnage with massive favorites (and widely owned) Denver and Atlanta going down as well as the Ravens. The Texans were the soundest play, it turned out, while the Patriots and Redskins survived close calls.
For those few who are still alive, we're looking at a very tough Week 7 with no team favored by even a full touchdown, and four of the six most used teams playing on the road. The biggest Vegas favorites on the board are the Cowboys with an implied 71 percent probability of winning.
Let's take a look at the full slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | BROWNS | 24.60% | 230 | 69.70% | 7.45 |
| Cowboys | 49ERS | 24.00% | 250 | 71.43% | 6.86 |
| VIKINGS | Ravens | 12.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 3.67 |
| Saints | PACKERS | 9.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.76 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 7.30% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.21 |
| Panthers | BEARS | 4.70% | 165 | 62.26% | 1.77 |
| EAGLES | Redskins | 3.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 1.00 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 3.10% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.29 |
| Seahawks | GIANTS | 3.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.94 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 1.90% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.75 |
| Jaguars | COLTS | 1.60% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.63 |
| BILLS | Buccaneers | 1.60% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.63 |
| Rams | Cardinals*** | 1.10% | 175 |
Last week saw more widespread carnage with massive favorites (and widely owned) Denver and Atlanta going down as well as the Ravens. The Texans were the soundest play, it turned out, while the Patriots and Redskins survived close calls.
For those few who are still alive, we're looking at a very tough Week 7 with no team favored by even a full touchdown, and four of the six most used teams playing on the road. The biggest Vegas favorites on the board are the Cowboys with an implied 71 percent probability of winning.
Let's take a look at the full slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | BROWNS | 24.60% | 230 | 69.70% | 7.45 |
| Cowboys | 49ERS | 24.00% | 250 | 71.43% | 6.86 |
| VIKINGS | Ravens | 12.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 3.67 |
| Saints | PACKERS | 9.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.76 |
| STEELERS | Bengals | 7.30% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.21 |
| Panthers | BEARS | 4.70% | 165 | 62.26% | 1.77 |
| EAGLES | Redskins | 3.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 1.00 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 3.10% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.29 |
| Seahawks | GIANTS | 3.10% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.94 |
| DOLPHINS | Jets | 1.90% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.75 |
| Jaguars | COLTS | 1.60% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.63 |
| BILLS | Buccaneers | 1.60% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.63 |
| Rams | Cardinals*** | 1.10% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.40 |
| PATRIOTS | Falcons | 0.70% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.25 |
| Broncos | CHARGERS | 0.60% | 87 | 46.52% | 0.32 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
***Game in London
From the Vegas and polling numbers, the Seahawks would be the pick because they're only three percent owned and nearly as likely to win as the Cowboys. After that, the Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers, Saints and Vikings are viable options. But you could take virtually any favorite on the board, given how tight the numbers are.
My Picks
1. Minnesota Vikings
Maybe the Ravens offense puts up a credible effort, but Minnesota has a good defense, and I trust Case Keenum more than Joe Flacco at this point. I give the Vikings a 71 percent chance to win this game.
2. Carolina Panthers
This is a bit off the board, but the Bears have no passing game of which to speak, Carolina has a good defense, and the Panthers are well rested off the Thursday game. I give the Panthers a 69 percent chance to win this game.
3. New Orleans Saints
Taking the Saints on the road is a dicey proposition, but the Packers without Aaron Rodgers are a below average team, and the Saints defense has played credibly of late. I give the Saints a 69 percent chance of winning this game.
4 Tennessee Titans
The Titans should handle the Browns, but Tennessee's defense is weak, and Marcus Mariota didn't look completely healthy Monday night and has a short week to recover. I give the Titans a 69 percent chance of winning this game.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Bengals are a good team, but the Steelers defense is playing well, Ben Roethlisberger is typically better at home, and the Bengals have problems on the offensive line. I give the Steelers a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys are below average defensively, and the 49ers show up every week, whether it's the Seahawks, Redskins or Cardinals. This is close to a 50/50 game.
Philadelphia Eagles - They looked great against the Panthers Thursday night, but the Redskins are a good team, and these teams know each other too well.
Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs are good, but this is a short-week road trip against a desperate animal.
Seattle Seahawks - The Giants defense looked like last year's version in Denver, and if that unit shows up, this will be a close, low-scoring game either team can win.
