This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's more normal slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAGLES | 49ers | 25.80% | 837.5 | 89.33% | 2.75 |
| Vikings*** | Browns | 25.00% | 390 | 79.59% | 5.10 |
| BENGALS | Colts | 23.90% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.35 |
| SAINTS | Bears | 14.00% | 380 | 79.17% | 2.92 |
| PATRIOTS | Chargers | 3.80% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.90 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 3.20% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.76 |
| Falcons | JETS | 1.40% | 187.5 | 65.22% | 0.49 |
| SEAHAWKS | Texans | 0.70% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.21 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
***Game in London
According to the numbers above it's between the Eagles and Pats/Chiefs. The Eagles are more likely to win, but the Pats/Chiefs offer a better payout if the Eagles do happen to lose. You can run the math, but I'm positive the Eagles will come out ahead - they're a modest 26 percent owned despite a fairly sizeable (13 percent) win-probability gap over those two teams.
I suspect the Eagles would be more highly owned, except that so many people who survived the Steelers Week 5 loss to the Jaguars did so by taking the Eagles,
Let's take a look at this week's more normal slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EAGLES | 49ers | 25.80% | 837.5 | 89.33% | 2.75 |
| Vikings*** | Browns | 25.00% | 390 | 79.59% | 5.10 |
| BENGALS | Colts | 23.90% | 450 | 81.82% | 4.35 |
| SAINTS | Bears | 14.00% | 380 | 79.17% | 2.92 |
| PATRIOTS | Chargers | 3.80% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.90 |
| CHIEFS | Broncos | 3.20% | 320 | 76.19% | 0.76 |
| Falcons | JETS | 1.40% | 187.5 | 65.22% | 0.49 |
| SEAHAWKS | Texans | 0.70% | 230 | 69.70% | 0.21 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
***Game in London
According to the numbers above it's between the Eagles and Pats/Chiefs. The Eagles are more likely to win, but the Pats/Chiefs offer a better payout if the Eagles do happen to lose. You can run the math, but I'm positive the Eagles will come out ahead - they're a modest 26 percent owned despite a fairly sizeable (13 percent) win-probability gap over those two teams.
I suspect the Eagles would be more highly owned, except that so many people who survived the Steelers Week 5 loss to the Jaguars did so by taking the Eagles, i.e., most of the people still alive have already used them.
My Picks
1. Philadelphia Eagles
I don't have to sell people on a 13-point home favorite against a doormat, but the risk is (1) the short week; (2) emotional letdown after a big division win in primetime; and (3) the Niners tend to show up in tough spots, e.g., they almost beat the Seahawks in Seattle. Still, it's a long shot the 49ers actually win. I give the Eagles an 87 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Colts are arguably the worst team in the NFL, and the Bengals are strong defensively and should rebound at home against a weak pass defense. I give the Bengals an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. Minnesota Vikings
The London variable is always a wild card, but the Vikings defense is stout, and the Browns, who were already bad offensively, just lost Pro Bowl LT Joe Thomas for the year. I give the Vikings an 82 percent chance to win this game.
4. New Orleans Saints
The Bears are scrappy and play good defense, but I don't think they'll be able to hide Mitch Trubisky in New Orleans. And the Saints defense has played much better the last several games. I give the Saints a 79 percent chance to win this game.
5. Seattle Seahawks
Deshaun Watson has been great, but he's largely beat up on weak defense, and a road game in Seattle is as tough as it gets. Moreover, Russell Wilson and the offense are starting to hit their midseason stride. I give the Seahawks a 74 percent chance of winning this game.
6. New England Patriots
Their defense has played better of late, and Rob Gronkowski is healthy again. The Chargers have improved defensively and can rush the passer, but Tom Brady gets rid of the ball quickly, and the Pats will have a good game plan. I give the Patriots a 74 percent chance to win this game.
7. Kansas City Chiefs
Andy Reid is the master game-planner with extra rest, but the Chiefs defense has quietly been bad the last few games, and the Broncos are possibly the rare defense that can shut down Kansas City's vaunted offense. Still, Trevor Siemian has not inspired confidence of late. I give the Chiefs a 72 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
Atlanta Falcons - They're still a talented team, but something looks broken after the most devastating Super Bowl loss in NFL history. The Jets are weak, but I'm not taking the Falcons on the road.
