Survivor: Surviving Week 9

Let's take a look at Week 9:

The Texans are easily biggest favorites on the board and also the most owned at 50 percent. We can run the math, but I'd bet they're the better pick than the next best choice - at least per these numbers - the Eagles. It's pretty close though, so let's run the numbers to make sure:

A Texans win/Eagles loss is 88.3 percent times 22 percent which equals 19.4 percent. An Eagles win/Texans loss is 78 percent times 11.7 percent which equals 9.2 percent. The ratio of 19.4 to 9.2 equals 2.11.

In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, should the Texans lose and Eagles win, 50 people go down with Houston and another 12 on other teams, leaving 38 people remaining. $1000/38 = $26.32. Should the Texans win and Eagles lose, six would go down with Philly and 12 on other teams, leaving 82 people remaining. 100/82 = 12.2. The ratio of 26.32 to 12.2 is 2.15.

I stand corrected! The Eagles - assuming you agree with these numbers - are ever so slightly the better bet. Actually, it's so close you could argue that if you have an edge down the stretch, you might want to default to the team that's safer in Week 9, i.e., the Texans.

My Picks

1. 6. Houston Texans

I'm going with the chalk here. Deshaun Watson lit up the Seahawks in Seattle and should have no problem doing the same at home to the Colts. The Colts might keep up for a bit, but Jacoby Brissett is better suited as a game-manager and is likely to make mistakes if forced to shoot it out. I give the Texans an 88-percent chance to win this game. The Texans are better on defense than the Colts even without J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus, but losing Deshaun Watson is a major hit with Tom Savage the likely backup. I give the Texans a 65 percent chance of winning this game.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have been stout of late, but Denver's defense is good enough to ugly this up, and all the Broncos need is semi-competent game management to hang around. They probably won't get it though from Brock Osweiler. I give the Eagles a 77 percent chance to win this game.

3. Seattle Seahawks

I initially had the Seahawks as my No. 2 because Redskins are so banged up right now and lack an outside receiver they trust. But it looks like Earl Thomas isn't playing, and that's a big blow to a defense that got torched last week by Watson. Still, Seattle should have its way against a porous offensive line, and Russell Wilson is in peak form. I give the Seahawks a 78-percent chance to win this game.

4. New Orleans Saints

The Buccaneers are terrible, but I have a feeling they show up against a division rival, and I'm still not entirely sold on New Orleans defense. But at home, and facing a weak defense, I expect the Saints to pull it out. I give them a 72-percent chance to win this game.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars defensive line should own the Bengals' weak pass-protectors, but it's risky backing Blake Bortles over a team with a semi-competent QB and a solid defense. I give the Jaguars a 67-percent chance to win this game.

7. Tennessee Titans

The Ravens passing game is arguably the worst in the NFL, but their defense is good, and they seem to have found a running back in Alex Collins. I don't expect the Titans to pull away, but I think they prevail in a close game. I give the Titans a 64-percent chance to win this game.

8. Los Angeles Rams

The Giants are in disarray, especially now that star corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended, but their defense is still above average, especially if the offense doesn't keep them on the field all game. Moreover, the Rams have to travel across three time zones to play an early body-clock game. Still, the Rams are the better team, and they're much better coached. I give the Rams a 62-percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions

Oakland Raiders - The Dolphins are bad, but I'm not willing to use the Raiders on the road.

Buffalo Bills = I'd avoid a short-week road game against a division rival that's competed in most of its games.