The Wheelhouse: First Base Tiers

There are two risks with Goldschmidt. First, there is the possibility that he runs a little less than he did in 2017 when he finished with 18 steals. Second, is the potential installation of a humidor at Chase Field, which in the estimation of physicist Alan Nathan, could reduce home runs at Chase Field by 25-50 percent. Even the lower end of that range is significant, but there is some confusion as to whether the humidor will be completed for the 2018 season due to an ongoing legal dispute between the D-backs and Maricopa County. It's far from a problematic strikeout rate, but it's also worth noting that Goldschmidt struck out 22.1 percent of the time last season -- the highest of the players in this bunch. Ultimately, this is nitpicking.

As the Braves' lineup continues to improve with the addition of Ozzie Albies last season and Ronald Acuna early in 2018, Freeman's value continues to rise. The power-friendly tendencies for lefties at SunTrust Park in Year 1 are also a nice boost. This could be the year he outearns Goldschmidt to become the best player at the position.

Votto continues to put up ridiculous numbers on middling Reds teams, and no player at the position topped his 165 wRC+ in 2017. Something about Rizzo seems boring, but he's in this tier despite having a lower batting average floor than the others. His overall floor, thanks to a still strong Cubs lineup, and very low two-year strikeout rate (14.5 percent), makes him a great target in Round 2 for owners who opt to take a starting pitcher in Round 1.

Tier 2

The ADP does not reflect it, but count me among those who believe that Bellinger versus Hoskins merits a debate. Bellinger's improved strikeout rate in the second half was washed out by his 3:29 BB:K over 67 plate appearances in the playoffs. The cop out with the argument about who you prefer is the difference in price, as Hoskins is usually available near the back of the Top 50, while Bellinger is gone within the first 25 picks. I prefer Hoskins because of the discount, but I expect them to finish within $1-2 of each other in 2018 earn values.

For those seeking stability, Abreu is great alternative (or consolation prize, depending on your perspective) if you miss out on Bellinger and Hoskins. With four consecutive 100-RBI seasons, and a .290 average or better in each of his MLB campaigns, Abreu continues to return a ton of value for the White Sox even with a rebuilding roster around him.

If Hosmer signs with San Diego, Myers will move back to the outfield. Either way, he offers a steady power-speed combo at first base, and there's little reason to be concerned about a major drop-off in steals in his age-27 season. The flaw relative to the rest of their is Myers' low batting average, which seems unlikely to increase much barring a reduction in strikeouts. Nevertheless, the list of players projected for 20-plus steals with 30-homer power is very short.

Encarnacion settled in after a slow start in 2017, but for the second straight season, his strikeout rate flirted with 20 percent. Now 35, nagging injuries are increasingly a concern, though getting regular reps as the DH reduces that risk. Don't be surprised if the batting average sticks in the .240-.250 range going forward, even though he's still a good bet to reach 35 homers, 90 runs, and 90 RBI in a strong Cleveland lineup.

Hosmer has played in 478 out of a possible 486 regular season games over the past three seasons. While he may return to Kansas City after a longer-than-expected stretch as a free agent, it's still possible that he'll end up in a more hitter-friendly home park, and in a more productive lineup. Even if he doesn't, his three-year averages are strong across the board: .294/.358/.458, 22 homers, 97 RBI, 92 runs, six steals.

Tier 3

Zimmerman's completely revamped swing, paired with the quality and depth of the Nats' lineup around him are enough to offset a lot of the concerns presented by his injury history. In most drafts, he's going later than Cabrera. It's strange to see Miggy outside the top-10 at the position, but there is a point after the first 75 players or so are off the board where it's really difficult to pass on him. Keep in mind that he was a top-10 overall player in 2016, but he was playing through two herniated disks in 2017 despite topping 500 plate appearances for the 14th consecutive season.

Desmond's bounce-back potential hinges mostly on health, after he was hit in the wrist by a pitch last March and sidelined by a calf injury in June and July. As pointed out frequently this time last year, Desmond's heavy groundball lean prevents him from becoming a 30-homer threat at Coors, but he still runs well, and the park will continue to prop up the Colorado offense as a whole, leading to more run production potential.

Carpenter gets a bump in OBP leagues, and he should be positioned to provide an increased total in runs and RBI with the addition of Marcell Ozuna and the potential for a slightly healthier Dexter Fowler.

Despite a completely lost 2016 and an injury-ravaged 2017, Bird remains a fascinating target just inside the Top 150 of current NFBC ADP. His taste of the Bronx in 2015 included a .261/.343/.529 line with 11 homers and 31 RBI in 178 plate appearances, and his surge in exit velocity once healthy late in 2017 offered another glimpse at his potential. As a lefty-power bat with a chance to play half his games at Yankee Stadium, Bird offers 40-plus homer upside. Even if he delivers 30 with a .260 average, it will likely come with 80 runs and 90-plus RBI, as the talent around him in the Yankees' lineup is the best supporting cast for any player in this tier.

Olson's combined 47 homers between Sacramento and Oakland will open plenty of eyes this draft season. I expect strikeouts to be a consistent issue for him even when he's producing, but some of the swing-and-miss in his game is offset by a walk rate above 10 percent at every stop since rookie ball in 2012. Drafting Olson for a reasonably priced 35-plus homer upside comes with a .225-.230 batting average downside.
Santana is boring, but he landed in another hitter-friendly environment, albeit one where he'll have less talent around him in the short term in Philadelphia. He gets a bump up in leagues that replace average with on-base percentage.

He'll cost more than Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo, but Mancini is where my interest lies in the Orioles' offense if I'm looking for cheap pop. It's entirely possible that he'll remain an asset in the batting average department, but it's highly unlikely that he'll become a liability on that front.

Smoak is more like Santana than his 2017 home-run total might suggest. His .241/.349/.475 line and 15 homers in 70 games over the second half is a more reasonable expectation for 2018.

Maybe I'm too low on Gallo, given his game-changing power and firmer hold on a regular spot in the lineup to begin this season. The improvement he made to provide a 36.8 percent K% is improvement nonetheless, and if he could find a way to knock that down closer to 31-32 percent, he could make a run at 50 homers with a more palatable average (.230?). One consideration in drafting him is building enough batting average cushion in your roster foundation. Be prepared to draft him much earlier in points leagues that don't penalize strikeouts, or the aforementioned OBP formats. Fortunately, at age 24 we can look at him and wonder what might go right.

Teams adjusted to Alonso's new approach after he put together the best half-season of his career to begin 2017. His move to Cleveland offers a sneaky home park upgrade that should put him in a prime position to deliver another 22-25 homers with a boatload of RBI, even if he'll be susceptible to regular time off against lefties.

Jason Collette is right. Bour is going to hit 30 homers, but he's only going to drive in 65 runs.

Belt showed skills growth last year, but he suffered his fourth career concussion in 2017, raising serious concerns about where things stand in the unfortunate event that he suffers another. The Giants' addition of Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen offers up a nice boost to his R/RBI potential, but he'll still get some days off against tough lefties as the Giants give Buster Posey occasional breaks from his duties behind the plate.

Bell is going just inside the Top 175 overall based on current NFBC ADP, which seems reasonable, even though he tapped into more game power than ever before during his first full season with the Pirates. As a switch-hitter, he should rarely fall out of the lineup, though it's fair to question the quality of the group around him again this season.

Gurriel will turn 34 in June, which is easy to lose sight of since he signed with the Astros in the summer of 2016. I would be surprised to see him offer up additional power this season, but he puts a ton of balls in play and should be reasonably safe in the batting average department.

Tier 4

Thames is in position to get squeezed if the Brewers do nothing to address their outfield logjam, but he'd be a winner of sorts if Domingo Santana gets traded, as it would lessen the need to use Ryan Braun at first base. On the surface, .247/.359/.518 with 31 homers in his return to MLB last season is a success. He only hit 21 homers against teams that aren't the Reds. Of greater concern, Thames hit .207/.316/.432 in 92 games from May 1 through August 30, before feasting again in September (.328/.431/.574). Jesus Aguilar could cut into Thames' playing time against righties in 2018 if the same platoon is tasked with handling first base in Milwaukee.

Flores could be on the verge of a 25-plus homer season if the Mets give him 500 plate appearances again (it happened in 2015). He showed improvement across the board against right-handed pitching, and kept his overall strikeout rate below 15 percent for the fourth straight season. At a minimum, he's a lefty killer to lean on for DFS purposes when the Mets face a southpaw.

Davis has hit .221 or less in three of the last four seasons, and his 37.2 percent strikeout rate last season was the highest he's ever posted at any level as a pro. Imagine having a 32-year-old version of Joey Gallo on your roster. Now imagine having him signed through 2022 at an average annual cost of $23 million. At least some of the cash is deferred. The Mets are paying Bobby Bonilla until 2035. The Orioles will be paying Chris Davis until 2037.

Moreland is going to keep Hanley Ramirez's 2019 vesting option from getting reached, regardless of whether Boston ends up signing J.D. Martinez.

Gonzalez swatted 16 homers in the first half last season before falling back toward a more manageable pace in the second half when he hit seven in 63 games (.299/.363/.485). In any case, first base is the least-valuable place he can be used in most leagues where he's got 2B/SS/OF eligibility in all leagues, and 3B-eligibility in leagues that require 10 or 15 games to qualify at a position instead of 20.

Morrison could jump up near Alonso in these rankings if he finds a similar situation (Colorado, Minnesota?), but it seems more likely that he'll end up in a pitcher-friendly environment as a bargain solution to a first-base or DH vacancy (Kansas City?).

Duda has even more swing-and-miss than Morrison. Is it possible that he'll end up finding a better deal overseas than with an MLB team?

The Angels owe Pujols $114 million through 2021 -- his age-41 season. He should lose a significant chunk of playing time with Shohei Ohtani being limited to DH, but it's easy to argue that he should have lost playing time a year ago while hitting .241/.286/.386 over 636 (!) plate appearances. C.J. Cron is blocked by a 38-year-old Brinks truck.

Everybody Else

The Mariners' acquisition of Ryon Healy this winter should give them a slight upgrade at the position compared to their first-half rotation from 2017. Rule 5 pick Mike Ford and Dan Vogelbach are the potential threats to his playing time, so it's a pretty clear path to 500-plus plate appearances for Healy if he's able to hold his own against righties.

Jake Bauers is the early favorite to start at first base for the Rays, but plenty can change between now and Opening Day. Just 22 years old, Bauers has little left to prove at Triple-A after hitting .263/.368/.412 at Durham last season. While he hasn't shown the protypical pop of a first baseman, he offers some projection on that front, perhaps getting into the low-20s at his peak. Until then, he should offer speed, as evidenced by a 20-for-23 mark on the basepaths last season for the Bulls.

Ryan McMahon needs to the Rockies to pass on the handful of cheap free-agent options available on the market prior to spring training in order to have a regular spot. He falls down further in the bottom tier if one of Morrison, Duda, or Mark Reynolds ends up signing with the Rockies.

Jose Martinez needs a few things to break his way in order to get regular time at first base. Mostly, he needs Matt Carpenter to serve as the primary third baseman, but he also needs Luke Voit to disappoint if the Cards don't bring in a cheap veteran to offer up additional left-handed thump. At the very least, Martinez can be a lefty-crushing bench piece for the Cards who gets occasional run as a starter when injuries thin out the depth ahead of him.

Matt Adams can have plenty of mixed-league relevance if injuries befall Ryan Zimmerman. Until then, he's best left for draft-and-hold and NL-only formats.

As noted above, Jesus Aguilar has a path to play more against right-handed pitching if the Brewers move one of Domingo Santana or Ryan Braun in a trade. Failing that, he'll struggle to find enough plate appearances to make a dent in more than NL-only leagues unless injuries create a larger role.

Dominic Smith is potentially blocked by Adrian Gonzalez now, because the Mets truly are amazing.

Mark Reynolds, Mike Napoli and Danny Valencia are currently buried below clear bench/Triple-A players as they may be forced to sign overseas or retire. Reynolds is useful again if the Rockies end up bringing him back into the mix.

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