Mound Musings: My 2018 "Home" League Pitching Staff

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. So, having just completed this year's auction in my primary or "home" league, I thought I'd take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff with which I will go to war. I'll add that I typically focus heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys pitch on several of my teams.

Having won the league in 2017, this will be a bit of a rebuilding year. I made a few deals to bolster my team as the season progressed, meaning I had several expiring contracts, and some of my promising younger players with attractive keeper contracts were dealt away. That's a big part of keeper/dynasty strategy – when you have the pieces in place, you take your shot at a title, knowing the next year might require some patience while you build your "organization" into a contender.

A little background:

This league has been in existence for a very long time. This will be my 28th season, and most of the league's owners have been members for 20-plus years. It started in my hometown, but owners have gradually dispersed all over North America, and we all come back for draft day. These guys are savvy, experienced and they're pretty familiar with the tendencies of the other owners. It's a challenging group, but that makes it fun!

With 15 teams, it's a mixed league keeper with deep rosters (33 players per team with no minor league or disabled list slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 12 hitters and nine pitchers (with a minimum of five qualified starting pitchers and two qualified relief pitchers). One thing that makes roster management more challenging – picking up a free agent requires a "move" usually from a player being sent down or put on the disabled list. You can then release that player and pick up someone on the waiver wire (order is determined by reverse order of the current standings). Since you probably won't want to cut a key player who goes on the DL for a short time, you really need versatility and some productivity on your bench.

So, let's look at my pitching staff, and discuss my thoughts on who and why:

• SP1 Yu Darvish ($12 extended) – A couple of seasons ago (when he was out all season), I began building a pitching staff centered on Darvish and Syndergaard. Even though Darvish has been relatively effective, he has been a bit of a disappointment when measured against my expectations. He'll never be considered a pitch to contact guy, and that's okay because I rely on him to pile up strikeouts. However, I do need innings from him, and higher pitch counts have limited him there. I expected a huge year in 2017, and got a good year. I'm back for that huge year this season, but his first start for the Cubs was more of the same. If his once dominating command returns, he'll be a monster.

• SP2 Noah Syndergaard ($14 extended) – My best starting pitcher is listed here as a SP2. When healthy and doing his thing, he's close to (or at least deserves discussion with) being one of the best pitchers in the game. Thor's "thing" is a mix of fastballs that touch triple digits with movement and devastating sliders with more velocity than most heaters. The downside is the number of sliders he throws so hard are probably taking a toll on his arm. He missed most of last season with various ailments, and the Mets will no doubt closely monitor his workload – that's the reason for a SP2 assignment. I anticipate only about 180 innings (hopefully) this year. If I get them with him 100 percent healthy, I'll take it. He can own a game. Not many pitchers can say that. I admittedly tend to downplay injury risk, but when dealing with elite talent, risk is often a necessary evil.

• SP3 Jameson Taillon ($1) – You'll frequently find pitchers who have been at the top of my watchlist on my roster. It stands to reason. I first saw Taillon when he was in high school, and I immediately decided he was destined to pitch for me. I have had to be patient. He was selected second overall in the 2010 draft (between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado) out of high school, and he was making modest progress before Tommy John surgery and a hernia entirely wiped out his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He came back strong in 2016 – but then he missed time due to testicular cancer last season. It sapped his strength and stamina, but if the injury/health bug is behind him (and his first 2018 start was very promising) the dividends of that patience could be huge.

• SP4 Patrick Corbin ($2) – Corbin is an excellent example of a starting pitcher possessing multiple positive "angles" worthy of your attention. First, he was very impressive early in his career before missing 2014 and much of 2015 following Tommy John surgery. In the second half of last season he began to display much of that early ability. That's an expected timeline. Next, the D'backs have made some adjustments defensively (primarily moving Ketel Marte to second and playing Nick Ahmed every day at short). As an extreme groundball pitcher, Corbin stands to greatly benefit from the much improved infield defense. Finally, the humidor could significantly decrease homeruns in his home park. Add it all together, and there's good reason for optimism. I'm banking heavily on him.

• SP5 Kevin Gausman ($8) – His was one of those contracts that expired for me at the end of last season. Some would say, finally … no more Gausman. Well, he's another of those guys who spent time at the top of my watch list. I considered myself a little lucky that his 2017 first half numbers would darken his overall stats enough to provide a discount on draft day. I got the discount, and he's back on my staff. Gausman, like most pitchers, can get out of sync at times. When it happens, adjustments are necessary, and the results can be ugly until that happens. Unfortunately, the Orioles have been slow to correct mechanical flaws in their young arms, but he has the right stuff, and, as he matures, I'm hoping he will be better prepared to make those adjustments on his own.

• SP6 Miles Mikolas ($5) – I vaguely remembered Mikolas from before he left for Japan back in 2014. Nice arm, but weak and inconsistent secondary stuff. Reports were generally positive regarding his return, so I decided to have another look. I missed his first spring outing (he got rocked), but I watched him later in the spring and generally liked what I saw. He still had a very lively fastball, but his off-speed stuff is what caught my eye – especially a wipeout curve that he was throwing for strikes whenever he needed it. I'm a sucker for a big, quality breaking ball, so here he is on my staff. I was happy with his first start earlier this week, despite the homeruns, and I'm hoping for a solid season.

• SP7 Shohei Ohtani ($5) – It's rare when I mark a pitcher as one of my biggest question marks and one of my safest bets, but Ohtani lands on both lists. Ohtani has once in a generation raw talent. That gets him on the safest bets list, but he also faces a transition to the North American style of baseball. The time that will require is somewhat unpredictable. I added him last year when vague rumors began to circulate that he might jump from Japan. I have him listed here as a SP7, but in reality, I think he'll end up in the same discussions as the true aces of the game. Hopefully it will be this season – his start against Oakland made me almost giddy – but, barring injury, it will happen. If you don't own him, and his owner has any doubts, maybe based on his spring numbers, jump now!

• RP1 Kenley Jansen ($25) – Something is wrong here, folks. I consider Jansen the best closer in the game, my bullpen anchor, but early this season, his results have been concerning. His velocity was down on his bread-and-butter cutter. The team called the dip a "dead arm period," and Jansen dismissed the concerns. However, earlier this week, he entered a save situation, and the velocity was nearly normal, but the elite closer was noticeably uncomfortable on the mound, overthrowing to reach his normal velocityand lacking his usual pinpoint control. Hopefully this is a passing thing, but worry is understandable.

• RP2 Sean Doolittle ($5) – A roster add last season just before he left Oakland, he was a big part of my stretch run when he stepped in as Washington's closer. He needs to stay healthy, which probably means the Nats won't overuse him, but they should give him plenty of save chances. One thing to be aware of with Doolittle is the even higher importance of mechanics and command. Getting out of sync is more problematic because that would lead to more strain on his arm, and because he is pretty much a one-trick pony. He throws fastballs almost exclusively, so hitting his spots is absolutely imperative.

• RP3 Keone Kela ($4) – I spent much of draft day fishing for future closers. Prices were inflated on relief pitchers generally considered to be favorites for collecting saves, and since many of them were dubious closers, I felt there were opportunities to uncover value. In my experience, a new closer often makes excellent trade bait. Kela was high on my list (Alex Claudio was the presumed closer early on). It's all about health with him. He has the best tools for the job, but his injury history is the concern. Ride him while his arm is attached.

• FLEX – this could be a SP7 or RP3 – Dinelson Lamet ($11), Yoshihisa Hirano ($7), Drew Steckenrider ($1), Zach Britton ($6) and Julio Urias ($2). – This is generally my option slot. I fill it based on need and opportunity. I came out of the draft somewhat thin in my starting pitching, and Lamet already hitting the disabled list magnified that problem. The fact that the Padres aren't talking about his prognosis really worries me. I will mention that Urias is another former top of the watch list member (like Syndergaard, Taillon, Gausman and Ohtani). I couldn't pass up the chance to get him at a very attractive price even though he's unlikely to help this season. I'll be shopping for an adequate reserve starter, perhaps dangling a reliever as trade bait. Flexibility (and owning trade bait) is very useful over the course of a full season.
  

• I really liked Aaron Nola coming into this season. However, the Phillies manager pulled him after 68 pitches despite him pitching very well. Two days later he made a pitching change with no reliever prepared to enter the game. I still like Nola's ability, but this entire team is heading for a complete mental meltdown.

• I keep waiting for Trevor Bauer to take the next step and start fulfilling some of the promise he displayed when he turned pro, but it just hasn't happened. He's got great stuff at times, but he's too inconsistent. He needed more than 100 pitches to cover five innings in his first 2018 start. Someday, maybe, but not yet.

• My "I should have been more aggressive on draft day" nominee early in 2018 goes to the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty. I loved the raw stuff last year, and I bid on him wherever I could this year, but I didn't get him on a roster. He's progressing, and it could be hard to deny him a fulltime rotation spot for very long.

• One had to wonder what kind of shape Garrett Richards would be in this year. I had a chance to watch some of his start against the Indians, and he certainly looked healthy. He'll still overthrow at times, which looks like he's coming out of his shoes, but when he stays within himself, he can be almost untouchable.

• A long memory for good things is sometimes a curse, but I watched the first start of Matt Harvey, and saw a lot of what I liked about him when he was discussed in the same conversations with Syndergaard. He's not in Thor's league these days, but I believe he could re-establish himself as a viable fantasy starter.

• The Rangers' Cole Hamels appears to be making the transition most pitchers have to make when their fastball velocity declines. His heater is down a couple of ticks, so he's mixing in more changeups and he's introducing a slider. Look for both more strikeouts (this is new for hitters, too) and more walks for a while.
  

Expanding on the earlier comments about the Phillies, Hector Neris remains the best option to close games there, but if I owned him, I'd be selling as quickly as possible. The current situation there is far from being conducive to productivity. Initially, the Giants said Mark Melancon might be back in a couple of weeks. They now admit they have no idea how long he'll be out. Hunter Strickland, if available, needs to be on your roster. The situation with the Angels' bullpen is becoming a bit more tenuous. Blake Parker has been shaky, and the team has, so far, avoided using Cam Bedrosian to close. When Parker ran into trouble, they called on Keynan Middleton to bail him out. It's too early to predict a true change in roles, but speculators might consider adding him. The White Sox have said they intend to use Joakim Soria and Nate Jones as co-closers, but early usage patterns suggests Soria may be the first choice to pitch the ninth. I found it curious to see Houston's Brad Peacock toss three innings in a recent game against the Orioles. He was pitching well (he got the win), but presumptive closer, Ken Giles, was not used to protect a 3-2 in the ninth. Could rumors of a closer by committee perhaps be materializing? My first "wow" reliever of 2018 may be Seattle's Edwin Diaz. I've always liked him a lot, but he's taken nasty up a notch lately.