Regan's Rumblings: Predicting the Future with xFIP vs. ERA

This week we'll look at 10 pitchers on each side of the ledger – some who can expect better results over the next four months and others who could be in for regression.

COULD REGRESS

Gio Gonzalezis a perplexing case. His ERAs the last three years (2016 to 2018) have been 4.57, 2.96 and the 2.10 mark this year. During that time, his control has regressed and his velocity has declined nearly two mph. His strand rate is certainly elevated at 85 percent (74.2 percentage career), so seeing him regress closer to his 3.58 career ERA hardly would be a surprise. Given the underlying metrics, this is probably just a small sample size type of start to his 2018.

I may trade Justin Verlander for Max Scherzer, but as far as fantasy SPs right now, it's hard to argue with Verlander being either No. 1 or No. 2. At 35, Verlander is having his best season in terms of strikeouts, walks, WHIP and ERA, and he's on pace for 20 plus wins. The first name that comes to mind when looking at pitchers who had a career year at an "advanced" age is Roger Clemens, former Astros (and others) pitcher who had four of his seven Cy Young awards come at age 34 or later. The numbers say a 1.11 ERA isn't sustainable, and no one would disagree, but despite the 3.49 xFIP, an ERA in the low-2s at the end of the year seems reasonable.

If you average 89 mph with your fastball as Matt Boyd does, I need to see much better than a 3.2 BB/9. At least he's limiting the HR ball, but with a 0.71 GB/FB ratio, that may not be the case for much longer. Boyd came from the Blue Jays in the 2015 David Price trade, and while he will make an impact for the Tigers, it's probably more as a No. 5 starter than the No. 3 level at which he's currently performing. Guys can get by with high-80s stuff, but the margin for error with that profile is slim. Factor in a .247 BABIP that seems likely to rise, and you're probably better off selling Boyd if the return is halfway decent.

Jake Arrietalooks to be another sell-high candidate. He's allowed just two runs in his last 24 innings, but his strikeout rate is way down over last year's 8.7 K/8, and even more concerning, his swinging strike rate is an abysmal 6.6 percentage compared to a league average of 10.6 percent. His experience gives him more of a reason than others for fantasy owners to trust that he can get by with lesser stuff post age-30, but I'd be shocked if he finished with an ERA much lower than 3.00, much less his current 2.16 mark.

With a hard-hit rate eight points above his career mark and a ground ball rate a full 10 points below,Jon Lester is living a charmed life on the bump so far this year. With a K/9 8.8 or above in each of the four seasons prior to 2018, Lester's 7.7 mark this year certainly qualifies as regression. Factor in a 3.1 BB/9 that's decent, but well off the 2.1 and 2.3 marks he put up in 2015-2016, and Lester could be showing signs of a decline in his age-34 season. He's never been a high-90s guy, so the decline may be gradual, but it's there.

With a so-so 3.6 BB/9 and a very, very low GB percentage of 25.2 percent, it's safe to say Jake Odorizziwill continue to be prone to poor outings. His HR/FB rate is a reasonable 14 percent, and he does sport an above-average 11.3 percent swinging strike rate, so I don't see a collapse, but perhaps some gradual ERA regression. On the plus side, I do like the 8.8 K/9, a mark that would be his best since 2014. You're not suddenly going to see a mid-2s ERA from Odorizzi given his middling stuff, but when he's locating well, he can have some success.

Jhoulys Chacin managed a 3.89 ERA in 32 starts last year, but more than half of this innings came in pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he had a 1.79 ERA. On the road? A 6.53 mark. He's continued to be much better at home this year in Milwaukee, though the splits aren't nearly as stark, making him a strong home play in DFS. As for roto, it's hard to trust his Jekyll and Hyde tendencies. For example, last time out against the Mets, Chacin allowed five runs in six innings. In the four starts prior, Chacin had a 1.37 ERA, with one of the starts coming in Coors Field. To me, he's simply a streamer and DFS play.

Mike Foltynewiczstill has occasional lapses in control given his 4.4 BB/9, but he's going to post a career high in innings for the fourth consecutive season (barring injury), and his 10.4 K/9 is easily a career best. Foltynewicz is throwing harder than ever, averaging 96.6 mph with his fastball, though that's not generating too many swings and misses (8.8 percent swinging strike rate). If he can continue to develop his curve and change, Foltynewicz could eventually be a No. 2 level starter, but that's easier said than done and so is improving one's control.

Maybe it's the way he dominated the Dodgers in the 2013 NLCS, but I've always been a Michael Wacha fan and owner ever since. This year is no exception, as despite the above so-so metrics, Wacha has a 2.71 ERA and in his last eight starts, he's allowed two or fewer runs. He's probably not a sub-3.00 ERA guy the rest of the way, but even a 3.50 or so mark should still allow him to finish with an ERA in the low 3s. For a guy with a 220 ADP, that's plenty of value.

SHOULD IMPROVE

In the third year of a five-year $75 million deal, the Royals simply have to be hoping for a great start to Ian Kennedy's season. That way, perhaps they can persuade a team to take him and cash this summer to further cut one of baseball's lower payrolls. Kennedy's ratios aren't bad, so if he can continue to pitch as he has and his .356 BABIP comes down, perhaps he can pitch in the low 4s in terms of ERA the rest of the way.

It's tough to watch Felix Hernandez these days. His velocity continues to drop, and his control looks to be regressing. Not a great combination. Sure, he's on the list of guys who should improve, but with a 5.83 ERA, there's nowhere to go but up. Felix dealt with shoulder issues last year and took a liner off his forearm this spring, so perhaps he's still shaking off those issues. Either it's that or the fact that from 2006 to 2015, Felix made at least 30 starts. Those quantities of innings tend to catch up to a guy when he's in his 30s.

Brandon McCarthy has had three horrible and eight good or decent starts, and all that has translated to a 5-plus ERA. It's rare that McCarthy is healthy for an extended stretch, but when he is, he's not a bad back-end of the rotation type starter. The problem this year is that there's really no way to predict when he's going to implode. His three bad starts have come at home against the lesser offenses of the Giants and Mets, and on the road against the Marlins, owner of easily the worst offense in baseball. I wouldn't use him in any format.

Ivan Novamay be the least "exciting" starting pitcher in fantasy baseball given he plays for a mediocre franchise and his 4.31 career ERA and 6.7 K/9 indicate a lower ceiling than most. As for the rest of 2018, I'd set the over/under on Nova wins at 8.5 given he's now on the DL with a finger injury and the Pirates could continue their perpetual fire sale this summer, but I do expect his ERA to trend down into the low-4s eventually.

For some reason, I tend to keep owning Clayton Richard in deeper formats. Yes, he's left-handed and yes, he pitches half his games at Petco, but Richard has a 4.37 career ERA and 5.9 K/9, so the upside looks to be rather low. He's a solid ground ball pitcher given his career 53.1 percent career GB percentage (far better than that in recent years), but for a guy who throws 68 percent fastballs that average just over 90 mph, the margin for error is slim.

I have to say that I disagree with Homer Bailey's move to the bullpen. Unless he's going to be used as a late-inning/closer option, this seems short sighted unless the move ends up as temporary. Interim manager Jim Riggleman called the move a "real transition," which, given he's making $21 million this year and $23 million in 2019, makes little sense unless you consider these salaries to be sunk costs. It's tough to even recommend burning a roster spot in NL-only leagues right now.

Lance Lynn transitioning from the NL to the AL had to have some bumps in the road, but perhaps not at this level. He's showing good velocity and has put up back-to-back quality starts (albeit against KC and DET), so continued improvement going forward given his late start to the season wouldn't be a big surprise. We currently have Lynn as the No.53 SP, but I can see him pitching like a mid-30s guy the rest of the way.

Luis Castillo was all the buzz this spring after posting a 3.12 ERA in 15 starts last year, so clearly he's been a massive disappointment to those who bought him as a "sleeper." His ratios aren't bad, but they're well off last year's, as is his velocity (95.2 mph avg. fastball vs. 2017's 97.5). Given he's still just 25, I easily can see a few seasons of 200 strikeouts and ERAs in the mid-3s but probably not this year. This is his first full season in the big leagues, so given his stuff, I'd expect a decent finish to 2018 and then a true breakout in 2019 or 2020.

Jon Gray is not scheduled to be a free agent until after the 2021 season, making him a continuous fantasy risk for the next few years. His ratios this year are elite and the best of his career, but he still has a 5.40 ERA, including a 4.61 road mark. As a former No. 3 overall pick, I have to wonder how his career arc would look if he had been drafted by the Cubs at No. 2 as had been rumored at the time in 2013. Instead, the Cubs went with a guy named Kris Bryant, and the rest is history. I think Gray should be a solid starter when we look back on his career 10 years from now. As for the near term, it's tough to really trust that he'll put up consistent results.