This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Four-game slates like the one we have on Wednesday are incredibly fun, and though I don't like to rejoice in the misfortune of others, it's enjoyable due to the litany of injuries present in multiple games. That spells out to a host of value opportunities. In fact, there are so many injuries, let's deviate from our normal structure and get them out of the way. I'll also go a little differently by spelling out who I like on these teams as replacements, and then limit my other predictions below.
Take this in: the equivalent of THREE starting lineups are out tonight on a four-game slate!
CELTICS
OUT: Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Al Horford, Daniel Theis
MINUTES RESTRICTED: Shane Larkin
WARRIORS
OUT: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Patrick McCaw, David West
PROBABLE: Andre Iguodala
With both of these teams essentially locked in for the playoffs, I doubt they'll be taking any chances on these questionable tags, which means that several value plays will be available.
BOSTON
Terry Rozier ($7,100)
Jayson Tatum ($5,700)
Marcus Morris ($5,600)
Aron Baynes ($3,800)
Shane Larkin ($3,600)
I like:Jayson Tatum. I'd pivot to Larkin if he wasn't on a minutes limit, and I feel like Rozier is simply too expensive when all I can really expect is a 30 DKFP cap. Tatum has a more reliable floor and there's a reasonable expectation that the offense will flow through him.
GOLDEN STATE
Shaun Livingston ($3,400)
Quinn Cook ($3,300)
Nick Young ($3,200)
Omri Casspi ($3,200)
I like:Omri Casspi. When Draymond is out, Casspi usually sees the biggest bump in usage and he's filled up a decent stat line many times in this role. Someone needs to fill the void in the backcourt but I'm not that high on any of them. With Klay Thompson out I favor Nick Young over the rest of them.
Don't look now, but there's more!
MAGIC:Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (questionable)
HEAT:Hassan Whiteside, Dwyane Wade (out)
LAKERS:Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart (out)
WIZARDS:John Wall (out)
These absences will come into play in my standard predictions section.
In my opinion, there are two ways to go on this slate. You can either go for balance, load up on second-tier guys and insert a couple of value plays, or you fire up all the elites and buy low everywhere else. Before we decide on that, let's look at those high-cost players.
Obviously, the entire DFS community will be heading to Kevin Durant ($11,400) and with the motley crew of backups the Warriors will have to start, I can't say I blame them. I think the Lakers will be able to keep this game out of blowout territory and it will essentially be up to Durant to find a win in this game. The only other high-cost player on this slate is Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600), who has racked up an average of 43.9 DKFP on the Magic over two games. That's not stellar, but the ceiling is there for Giannis to go higher.
So, do I start Durant? Absolutely. Do I start them BOTH? Sure, why not. As you'll see below, you can find plenty of value elsewhere and you can probably even slot in one more mid-tier guy while you're at it. Of course, this is probably going to be an exceedingly popular play, so it will be imperative to consider it if you want to keep pace in a cash game. As for tournaments, I'm more likely to replace Giannis and spread my money around at other positions.
We'll now go to our highlighted selections. I'll be looking at three players per position, and will endeavor to include one value play that isn't one of the players I mentioned above.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at BOS ($8,500): This is the kind of player I was talking about as a reasonable Giannis swap. Despite the Celtics defense, we aren't talking about their usual lineup tonight. I think you can throw out a lot of the tangible stats here, as I don't think Beal's history against Boston or the Celtics' efficiency against shooting guards play a huge part in grading Beal. He's the linchpin of the Wizards offense and he's going to go big. Period.
Lonzo Ball, LAL at GS ($7,600): Even though he's a rookie, guys like Quinn Cook and Shaun Livingston will have their hands full with Ball, who seems to get more comfortable with each passing game. He is my favorite Laker on the slate.
Tomas Satoransky: WAS at BOS ($5,700): I'm counting on Tomas to stay hot after his 41 DKFP performance in his last game. While more evenly matched against Boston's crop of newbies, I think he'll gave plenty of opportunities to dish the ball around and meet value at $5,700.
Other guards to consider:Eric Bledsoe, MIL at ORL ($7,400), Isaiah Thomas, LAL at GS ($6, 300)
FORWARDS
Otto Porter Jr., WAS at BOS ($6,500): He's averaged over 40 DKFP per game against an uncompromised Celtics lineup, so there's ample evidence to indicate that Porter will be able to take advantage and put up a solid number here. He's a good value close to DK's median price.
Justise Winslow, MIA at SAC ($5,900): Despite the numbers that are available for everyone to see, I think Winslow will be under-owned. He's been an excellent rebounder with Hassan Whiteside out, besting both Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo in that department since Whiteside went down last week. Even if we see Gordon or Fournier, Winslow has the ability to beat value here, and the fact that he faces the Kings certainly doesn't hurt his chances.
Zach Randolph, SAC vs. MIA ($5,500): While I won't be rushing to roster him, Skal Labissiere is a game-time decision and if he's out I think Randolph will see a significant bump. I'm probably not going this way if Skal suits up, but at this price you could do a lot worse.
Other forwards to consider:Khris Middleton, MIL at ORL ($7,500), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL at GS ($6,000)
CENTERS
Julius Randle, LAL at GS ($8,100): My second favorite Laker on Wednesday, and it's hard to argue against his recent production, and he sports a pretty nifty history against the Warriors. Randle has the chops to run over Omri Casspi and Zaza Pachulia tonight, so if you've got the room, Randle is an excellent play.
John Henson, MIL at ORL ($5,100): Really? Against Vucevic? Well, Orlando's on a back-to-back which is why I've largely faded them and Vucevic historically doesn't play well with zero rest. Henson has also been on a bit of a tear (granted, a Henson-esque tear) lately, and the Bucks need his inside presence as they push for a playoff spot.
Marcin Gortat, WAS at BOS ($4,500): Or, as I'd like to call him, the center I will never play. Well, rules are made to be broken, and I think this time we could see 30 DKFP from Gortat (he's done it to Boston before), and I think Satoransky will have an easier time getting free to dish it to Gortat inside. He could be the surprise of the slate, but don't hold your breath.
Other centers to consider: Brook Lopez, LAL at GS ($6,100
