This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
At long last, the NBA is back. Gone are the days of waiting for Le'Veon Bell to suit up. Forget complaining about Alfred Morris and his zero snap count. It's tip-off time for NBA DFS action, and I'll be with you all season delivering DraftKings advice four days a week.
Before we begin looking at this 11-game slate, there's big news from DraftKings regarding a change in practices for lineup construction. The Late Swap option is back for all contests! The lack of this option was a huge source of frustration for DFS players when a late guy was scratched or a lineup change occurred late in the day. Getting the Late Swap back will no doubt bring more players back to the fold, but the simpler playability for NBA on the site outweighs any increase in competition.
The beginning weeks of the NBA season deliver the least variance, as rosters will be largely injury-free (and we have a clear idea of who's out) and every team will be giving their starters all the minutes they can handle. As a result, I think that while cash games are an excellent option on any slate, firing up more GPP's is especially favorable in Week 1 due to the stability of the player pool.
GAME I LIKE: Pelicans at Rockets (-7): O/U: 228.5:
This game outpaces any other Over-Under line on the slate, and for good reason. Both teams were high-paced treasure troves last season and there's no cause to look at them differently. For the Rockets, I think Chris Paul ($8,900) comes at a great price relative to his production, and he's an easier sell for me than James Harden ($11,500). Adding Harden is going to limit my flexibility when I can find similar output for a lower price point. On the other side, I really like Elfrid Payton ($5,300) in the 5K range. His presence is going to take a lot of pressure off Jrue Holiday and we'll likely see a lot of dimes dropped for Payton with Anthony Davis ($11,100) as the recipient. Davis, as usual, is as chalky as they get and is perhaps my best top-shelf play on the site.
GAME I FADE: Grizzlies at Pacers (-6.5): O/U: 207:
'Fade' might be too strong of a word this early, especially when rosters are this static. If there's a clunker on this slate, it's this game. I think there's significant blowout potential in the Pacers' favor on Wednesday, as they outmatch the Grizzlies at almost every position. Domantas Sabonis ($5,700) would be a viable value option here if Myles Turner (ankle) was going to be out or limited, but he's been fully cleared to play.
This season I'll be identifying three players at each position accompanied by a small list of selections that hold equal weight in my projections. When possible, I'll be choosing one top-shelf player, one mid-range target and a big value play at each spot.
GUARDS
DeMar DeRozan, SA at MIN ($7,400): I think a lot of early drafters fell asleep on DeRozan, but Dejounte Murray's season-ending injury makes the former Raptor an everyday elite play. His price is too good to pass up relative to value, and it's only going to get higher as the season progresses. The Spurs are historically slow-paced and often a source of frustration for players, but DeRozan adds an exciting new element to the team and he should post a big stat line on Wednesday.
Luka Doncic, DAL at PHO ($6,700): In my opinion, Doncic was the most NBA-ready player of the rookie class, and he's likely to see higher ownership due to the attention he's received. At close to the median DK price, I think he's a great place to go low in cash lineups but might be too chalky in a GPP format. Either way, I expect to see Doncic light things up early, and with Harrison Barnes (hamstring) out, Doncic and Dennis Smith ($7,000) will spearhead the Mavs' offense against Phoenix.
Frank Ntilikina, NY vs. ATL ($4,600): With Ntilikina the starter at small forward, he's a bit too good to pass up at this price, especially considering his versatility and explosive potential. I like his chances in tournament lineups despite his up-and-down rookie season. Getting the starting nod is a sign that he's ready to take the next step. He'll likely see dual eligibility at forward soon.
Other guards to consider: Donovan Mitchell, UTA at SAC ($7,800), Will Barton, DEN at LAC ($6,900), Justin Jackson, SAC vs. UTA ($3,700)
FORWARDS
One guy deserves a special mention before I begin at forward. I see no problem with spending up for Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) as your cash anchor at under 11K. He's such a special player and, barring injury, it'll be difficult for me to fade him, ever. I suspect that he won't stay at this price for long.
Kevin Love, CLE at TOR ($8,600): Without LeBron in town, the Cavs are Kevin Love's ship to steer. His dual eligibility at center makes Love a strong cash play as the likely multi-category leader for Cleveland. I like his value at power forward rather than center on Wednesday, but it's a reasonable play either way. We know he can rack up fantasy points in a hurry, but it's important to note coach Tyronn Lue said Love may not be able to play extended stretches during the Cavaliers' season opener Wednesday at Toronto. "I think Kevin will be a little gassed because he's not in game shape [due to a previous foot injury] right now," Lue said. "To play the same style we did, it will probably be in shorter spurts for Kevin."
Taurean Prince, ATL at NY ($6,100): Prince followed up a masterful streak down the stretch last season with an equally impressive preseason. With every preseason stat line stuffed, it's hard to see Prince not meeting value at this price. This is another salary that will only trend up as the much-improved Hawks begin to gel. He's an excellent value in any format on Wednesday.
Harry Giles, SAC vs. UTA ($4,800): Giles is ready to play after a knee injury killed his rookie season. I think he's priced a tad too high, but he's valuable as a risk/reward play in GPPs, largely due to what I suspect will be very low ownership on Wednesday. He's in a bit of a crowd on the depth chart, but he's earned playing time with several double-digit efforts in the preseason.
Other forwards to consider: Aaron Gordon, ORL vs. MIA ($7,400), Andrew Wiggins, MIN at SA ($6,100), P.J. Tucker, HOU vs. NO ($3,900)
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN at LAC ($9,900): I favor Jokic over guys like Towns and Drummond due to a favorable matchup against Marcin Gortat and the Clippers. He has a great resume in the Staples Center, and I would not be surprised to see Jokic as the top big man Wednesday.
Rudy Gobert, UTA at SAC ($7.700): As usual, the center position commands a higher price but Gobert figures to have a great evening against the Kings, who have yet to really coalesce their interior attack. New additions like Harry Giles and Marvin Bagley still need some seasoning, and I think it's an excellent spot for Gobert to take advantage. Look for Donovan Mitchell to target Gobert inside early and often.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at DET ($5,700): If you had the chance to watch the Nets last season (a rarity), Allen's athleticism and potential were readily apparent, and the team fully believes he's their answer at center. I caught him very late in my in-season drafts and am glad I did. He'll likely be a sleepy DFS pick as well with bigger names grabbing higher ownership.
Other centers to consider: DeAndre Jordan, DAL at PHO ($7,700), Clint Capela, HOU vs. NO ($7,200)
Finally, we won't need to monitor our lineups as closely on DraftKings due to late swap, but be sure to monitor your guys during the day. As always, look to RotoWire.com for the latest news!
