This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's nine-game slate provides a lot of variety as we head into the weekend. In less than a week, we already have some dependable metrics to reference in our lineup construction, which should make targeting player floors a bit more dependable. When a schedule is this large, it's prudent to target and fade specific games to narrow the field. We'll start there.
GAME I LIKE: Warriors (-2) at Jazz: O/U: 218
This isn't the highest Over/Under on Friday, but sports betters should play the Over here. It's reasonable to say this might very well be a playoff final in the West. With the exception of Draymond Green, I think all of Golden State's starters are in play tonight, with Steph Curry ($9,700) still reasonably priced at under 10K. Donovan Mitchell ($7,900) and Rudy Gobert ($7,800) are outstanding values on Utah's side – within a week, I think both players will be in the mid-8K range. However, Ricky Rubio is currently a fade for me. His season debut looked worrisome, as Alec Burks ($4,100) saw considerable time in Rubio's stead. Burks could show up in my GPP's, as could Joe Ingles ($6,100).
GAME I FADE: Hawks at Grizzlies (-7): O/U: 209.5
This is another game I'd put money on as I think Vegas is underestimating the Hawks' chances here, but from a DFS perspective there isn't a whole lot to like. I see better options at similar or lower prices elsewhere at almost every position, but this is the game for you if you're punting a tournament lineup. If anyone is poised to wake up, it's Mike Conley ($6,600) who could sneak into a GPP or two for me.
I'll now target three players at each position, along a few others to consider that hold equal weight in my predictions. When possible, each position will include a top-shelf player, a mid-range salary target and a low-priced value play.
GUARDS
Victor Oladipo, IND at MIL ($8,400): I mentioned Curry and Mitchell above, but Oladipo had a strong opening game and his stat line would've been fatter had the Grizzlies kept it close. As a result, he only saw 26 minutes but logged an impressive 30 DKFP over that span. The Bucks present a tougher challenge for the Pacers, which should bring Oladipo's numbers way up on Friday.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC at NOR ($6,500): In truth, I like Elfrid Payton ($5,800) just as much on the opposite end, but I think Fox is a better play in terms of overall ownership. The word Is out on Payton and while I wouldn't hesitate to field him in a cash game, Fox is a great GPP play. While it's habit to hold my nose when I click on a King, that's exactly why he's in this article. Contrarian picks aren't always cheap, but they pay huge dividends if they hit.
Malik Monk, CHA at ORL ($4,700): I think Monk will be starting at the two very soon if Jeremy Lamb can't keep pace. Monk saw 34 minutes in the opening game, drilling four threes on the way to an 18-point performance off the bench. This is a great value play if I've ever seen one.
Other guards to consider: Dennis Schroder, OKC at LAC ($7,700), Jeff Teague, MIN vs. CLE ($6,400), Buddy Hield, SAC at NO ($5,600)
FORWARDS
Anthony Davis, NO vs. SAC ($11,600): I know, I know. Like you need to read my article to know this one - and why are you categorizing him as a forward? I only get one or two shots at the center position and I see value in that column on Friday, so I'm stashing Davis here. The advantage here is pretty clear. Willie Cauley-Stein can't contain him. The Kings, while improved, are still the Kings. True, Davis is the most expensive player on the slate. But after a 77 DKFP performance against the Rockets on Wednesday, you'd be a fool to not consider him.
Paul George, OKC at LAC ($8,700): Sorry to say, but I think the forward position is where you need to spend up on Friday. I picked George over guys like Kawhi and Durant due to the quality of the matchup and I think there is a lot of information to glean from his play against the Warriors on Wednesday. George heaved up 12 three-point attempts, connecting on a third of them. His field-goal percentage took a hit as a result and, at first glance, looks to be a bit cost-prohibitive. Don't be fooled. While Westbrook-free, George is a superb play against almost any team. The Clippers will yield more high-percentage shots, and he is sure to take advantage.
Serge Ibaka, TOR vs. BOS ($5,300): For those who can resist watching 'ButlerGate', this is the best game to view on Friday. True, Kawhi Leonard is a threat to Ibaka's fantasy relevance, but the veteran is a beast on defense. His shot went cold on Wednesday but if he can right that ship, he's a great candidate to beat value. I'd expect 30 DKFP or more from him against the Celtics at home.
Other forwards to consider: Aaron Gordon, ORL vs. CHA (88,200), Nikola Mirotic, NO vs. SAC ($7,000), Jayson Tatum, BOS at TOR ($6,500)
CENTERS
Rudy Gobert, UTA at GS ($7,800): Here's the first reason I locked Brow in at forward. While Gobert's double-double was against the Kings, I think the Jazz are in mid-season form and could pull an upset here. Draymond Green is still getting his sea legs and I'm not sold on Damian Jones as a Boogie placeholder. Gobert should pummel Golden State's soft spot in the paint and generate solid numbers. Play him while he's still priced low.
Jarrett Allen, BKN vs. NY ($6,000): Allen has a lock on the five in Brooklyn and he's the real deal. While he'll face Enes Kanter (also a good play) inside, the Nets look a bit more put-together than the Knicks (which isn't saying much). I favor Allen as more of a GPP play on Friday as the risk/reward ratio is tenuous, but I'm sold on his upside for now.
Myles Turner, IND at MIL ($5,800):Domantas Sabonis had a bigger stat line on Wednesday, but there was no need to keep Turner on the floor in a blowout, especially considering the troubles with his ankle. This will figure to be a much closer game, and we should see more of Turner on Friday. I think Sabonis' excellent play camouflages Turner nicely and when you combine his low price with potentially low ownership, you have an ideal combination for a sneaky GPP play.
Other centers to consider: Enes Kanter, NY at BKN ($7,700), Steven Adams, OKC at LAC ($6,900)
With DraftKings back to using Late Swap, things are a little bit easier to manage, but keep tabs on your players as games lock. As always, check in with us at RotoWire for the latest updates!
