This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got seven games on the ledger for Friday and even though we're just over a week into the 82-game season, we've got a list of injuries beginning to pile up. It goes against my sense of morality to call such things "good news" for DFS players, but it does give us an opportunity to find value in places we normally wouldn't. I wish a speedy recovery to all the players mentioned below, but let's make the best out of a bad situation.
By now you're probably aware of James Harden's (hamstring) injury, which could keep him out a couple of weeks. DraftKings promptly popped Chris Paul's salary up to $9,200, and since we are getting him back on Friday, he looks to be the top-shelf player that's going to get the biggest boost from Harden's absence.
Eric Gordon ($6,100) has naturally been the next place to go in the past, but Paul's recent suspension certainly didn't result in anything significant for him. He's actually only eclipsed 30 DKFP once in the first four games. It's worth noting that he logged 40 minutes against Utah with Paul out, but his shot was ice-cold, converting only one three-pointer in 12 attempts.
History has told us that both Paul and Gordon saw a 5% bump in usage during Harden's absences, so barring a bad shooting night from Gordon, both are in play Friday. Carmelo Anthony ($4,900) has also seen more time on the floor in Paul's absence, so I can see a reason for rostering him in order to get some more expensive plays.
A notable set of injuries in Chicago also offers some opportunity on Friday. Bobby Portis (knee) and Kris Dunn (knee) are now both out for the foreseeable future. One obvious player who will shoulder the burden is Zach LaVine ($7,900), who's the de-facto leader of the team already. But a breakout second half for Cameron Payne ($4,600) leads me to think that big things could be in store for him in Dunn's absence, as well, until his price goes up. He's almost an unbeatable value.
While Lauri Markkanen (elbow) would have unseated Portis eventually, their combined absences give Jabari Parker ($5,500) an opportunity to show his stuff. We should also see a marginal boost from Justin Holiday ($4,700) and Wendell Carter, Jr. ($4,300), but both of these are GPP plays only. I do like LaVine, Payne and Parker immediately moving forward, though.
One last injury involves Andrew Wiggins (quad). If you're looking for one more value target due to injury, monitor his progress later this morning and if he is held out, fire up Josh Okogie ($4,100) as his replacement.
Back-to back teams: We have zero back-to-backs tonight.
I'll now make three selections at each position along with a small additional list of players at each spot that I endorse equally. When possible, I will attempt to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each position. The aforementioned recommendations above should also be included.
GUARDS
Kemba Walker, CHA vs. CHI ($8,200): Walker is right there among the elite targets in terms of usage and shot volume, and when you add the fact that he went for 55 DKFP in his lone home game, I'm fine with sliding past Paul and John Wall to roster him. In fact, stacking him with Zach LaVine might be my favorite cash play of the evening. If I can offset that coast with Cameron Payne, I'd be even happier.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC vs. WAS ($6,800): Aside from a clunker against Denver earlier this week, Fox has put up some encouraging stat lines so far this season. If recent history is any guide, he has a ceiling in the 40-DKFP range, which you'll have trouble finding at DK's median price. The Wizards have allowed Lillard, Lowry and Curry to light them up already this season. I like Fox as a candidate to incur equal damage.
Damyean Dotson, NY vs. GS ($4,200): While I like Payne better in the value spot here, it's hard to ignore Dotson's production. He captured a spot in the site's perfect lineup earlier in the week, and he's seen an average of nearly 30 minutes a game despite coming off the bench. His multi-category appeal is high and even though I have to check myself every time I roster a Knick, we have no reason to doubt more usage moving forward.
Other guards to consider: John Wall, WAS at SAC ($8,500), Jeff Teague, MIN at MIL ($5,700), Joe Harris, BKN at NO ($4,800)
FORWARDS
Nikola Mirotic, NO vs. BKN ($7,400): It's becoming clear that I'm favoring a more balanced approach for Friday's slate, as I think the Giannis/Davis/Warriors plays, while fine, can only serve to bloat our spending to the breaking point. Mirotic is a great example of a guy who can give us value at a lower cost, without feeling bad about missing out on the elite plays. He's shooting well, he's averaging 46.6 DKFP per game. What more could you want?
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. MIN ($7,000): A little bit expensive for a mid-level play, and I definitely like some guys right below him, but when you're looking to hit that magic number of 300 in cash games, I think Middleton gives you a more predictable floor. With Wiggins limited and possibly out on the other end, Middleton should see a bit more wiggle room on Friday.
Kelly Oubre, Jr. WAS at SAC ($4,500): Call it a calculated hunch, but with Dwight Howard (back) and Ian Mahinmi (back) questionable, I think the Wizards are going to field a smaller lineup for the majority of the game. As a result, look for Oubre, Otto Porter Jr. ($5,800) and Markieff Morris ($5,600) to have more of an impact. Oubre is the best value for the price, but I will probably lean on Morris in a couple of GPP lineups as well.
Just as a reminder, Parker and Anthony trump any others in their price ranges for me.
Additional forwards to consider:Jimmy Butler, MIN vs. MIL ($8,600), Tim Hardaway Jr., NY vs. GS ($6,500), Marvin Bagley III, SAC vs. WAS ($5,200)
CENTERS
DeAndre Jordan, DAL at TOR ($7,200): Jordan won't break the bank, and he's got the potential to be a DFS monster on a nightly basis. Four straight double-doubles is nothing to sneeze at. Toronto has been limiting opposing centers in scoring, but Valanciunas has been out-rebounded inside consistently, and that's Jordan's bread and butter.
Clint Capela, HOU at LAC ($6,700): I'd call Capela the "quietly dependable" play at this position. While there won't be a huge boost in usage or output in Harden's absence, I think everyone on the team is going to have to contribute a little more to make up for Harden's prolific production. His stat lines are rarely eye-popping for a center, but he somehow always gets there. Don't expect a lot more than 30 DKFP from him, though.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC vs. WAS ($5,900): Yes, the impossible has happened – I'm endorsing Cauley-Stein. I half-expected him to be run out of town by now, but he actually looks improved this year and based on the small-ball hunch I had about the Wizards earlier in this article, I think Sacramento is in a position to exploit that weakness. I think Bagley could also benefit on Friday too, but Cauley-Stein should have the most input as a rebounding and scoring threat.
As always, monitor your picks by checking in with RotoWire before tip-off. Enjoy your weekend!
