This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's nine-game slate contains a healthy share of injury designations that warrant a close look, as they might present great value in lineup constructions. There are also some potential blowout games where we might want to fade the victor.
Sunday's DFS was a wash for me. John Wall and DeAndre Jordan kept my cash games intact but due to the small slate I fired up more GPPs than usual and ended up breaking even. Sunday actually marked my first break-even night thus far, as all of my action has been in the black in the first two weeks.
Anthony Davis (elbow) could be out tonight, while Giannis Antetokounmpo (concussion) and Kawhi Leonard (rest) have already been ruled out of the battle of undefeateds in the East.
If Davis sits for the Pelicans, I would slide to Nikola Mirotic ($7,300) as the solid cash play and Julius Randle ($6,200) as the high risk/reward play. Randle has his own foot injury to deal with, so his selection is definitely more risk than reward. With the Greek Freak is out, a lot of game production will flow Khris Middleton's ($6,900) way.
One player that is definitely out for the Pelicans is Elfrid Payton (ankle). Ian Clark ($3,200) is a GPP play worth considering, as he stepped in for Payton after the injury, but the safe money is on a boost in production from Jrue Holiday ($6,700), who's seen a bit of a salary drop over the week.
For my money, I'm not a huge fan of the following games : ATL/PHI, GS/CHI, LAL/MIN
Both the Sixers and the Warriors are heavily favored here, and both of those games are on blowout watch. I think targeting players here are GPP-only affairs. It will be hard to resist a Simmons/Embiid anchor in cash lineups, however. As for the Lakers, usage will be all over the map. The return of Brandon Ingram and Rajon Rondo makes player selection very difficult on that roster, so at the very least, I'm staying away from the LA side.
Back-to-back teams: Warriors, Nets, Mavericks
I'll now select three players at each position along with a small list of additional players worth endorsing in each spot. When possible, I will try to include a top-shelf target, a mid-range player, and a low-cost value play.
GUARDS
Kyle Lowry, TOR at MIL ($8,000): I wrestled for a while trying to decide on a top-shelf guard here. It was difficult to mesh affordability with production, and while I think Lillard and DeRozan are fine, I fell to a guy that's been incredibly consistent over the first two weeks. Lowry's shooting close to 60 percent from the floor and drilling half of his 3-point attempts, and his only sub-40 DKFP night was against a gritty Boston defense. Some of my counterparts criticized my early pick of Lowry in a recent mock draft, but I think the early stats show that – never mind, I don't like to gloat.
There's so much to like in the mid-range area, but I eventually settled on…
Jamal Murray, DEN vs. NO ($6,300): The Pelicans make their first journey to high altitude without Elfrid Payton and potentially the Brow. These high-paced teams are sure to yield a high total, and Murray is coming off of a few rest days. Most notably, the Pelicans are giving up an average of 36.6 DKFP per game to opposing point guards, and with Ian Clark subbing in the backcourt, we could see higher numbers than that on Monday.
Wesley Matthews, DAL at SA ($5,200): Matthews has put together a great two-week resume to begin the season. I wouldn't mind the price to be a bit lower, as his floor isn't quite as attractive as I'd like, but the Spurs are near the bottom in defensive efficiency against the three spot. Which is where he actually plays. He's worth penciling in here.
Other guards to consider:DeMar DeRozan, SA vs. DAL ($9,100), Goran Dragic, MIA vs. SAC ($6,200), J.J. Redick, PHI vs. ATL ($5,700)
FORWARDS
Caris LeVert, BKN at NY ($6,400): Keeping in mind that Middleton and Mirotic are my favorite mid-rangers, I like LeVert's chances in what is essentially a home game. LeVert hasn't seen anything below 30 DKFP this season, so I see no reason to think that he'll dip lower against a weak Knicks defense. LeVert also torched the Knicks in the preseason, and while that isn't the most reliable guide, New York has been giving up an average of 31.6 DKFP to starting small forwards. That combo gives me faith in LeVert's output.
Rudy Gay, SA vs. DAL ($5,700): Gay makes his first appearance in my column after stringing together an impressive series of games. I think Gay's resurgence is partially due to good health but also a product of DeMar DeRozan's arrival. He's reaching a respectable average of around 30 DKFP per game and with Dallas on the second game of a back-to-back, I think the opportunity for a big night from Gay is totally possible.
Additional forwards to consider: Jimmy Butler, MIN vs. LAL ($8,200), Josh Richardson, MIA vs. SAC ($6,900), Taurean Prince, ATL at PHI ($6,700)
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. NO ($9,900): I'm going here due to the likely absence of Davis on the other end, but the combination of altitude, travel, and Jokic's recent successes all point to a justification of this steep price. He does limit your options elsewhere, but this might be where I begin a majority of my cash lineups if Davis definitely sits. Jokic is averaging a ho-hum 51 DKFP per game right now. No big deal.
Enes Kanter, NY vs. BKN ($7,500): This matchup sets up well for Kanter, as the Nets haven't been particularly effective in the paint due to Jarrett Allen's up-and-down start. While it's essentially a home game for both teams, the Nets may be a bit fatigued on a back-to-back and when you consider that Kanter lit the Nets up for 48 DKFP earlier in the season, it's an easy player to click.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at MIL ($5,300): This is a great pivot with Giannis sitting. Valanciunas is not my favorite, to be sure, but he's actually saved a cash lineup or two for me already this season when the matchup dictated giving him a look. It won't take much for him to beat value at this price.
Other centers to consider:LaMarcus Aldridge, SA vs. DAL ($8,800)
Obviously there's a lot to monitor this evening, but the good news is that the Pelicans game is a late game, so you'll be able to utilize the late swap accordingly.
