NBA Waiver Wire: Nerlens Noel Still a Wait-And-See

NBA Waiver Wire: Nerlens Noel Still a Wait-And-See

This article is part of our NBA Waiver Wire series.

The Trail Blazers and the 76ers both play five games this week, a rare scheduling quirk that Fantasy managers should take advantage of as much as possible. Unfortunately, neither team has that many waiver wire prospects, but managers in non-games-max leagues should prioritize the few addable Blazers and 76ers.

We're far enough into the season that short-term injuries impact a lot of the waiver wire prospects listed below. Not every player we add will be a home run, but out teams can still benefit greatly from a series of smaller positive moves.

And while not every add is a home run, some of the season's best additions are probably still ahead of us. Remember: at this time last season, Donovan Mitchell was still unownable in Fantasy, ranked outside of the top-180, was averaging 9.3 points per game and had yet to play 30 minutes in any game. He would finish the season inside Fantasy's top-55 and inside the top-30 in points per game. In most leagues, he was the only player who came off the waiver wire and averaged 20 points per game.

Mitchell's 2017-18 breakout began in Game No. 8. Every NBA team plays their eighth game in Week 8. Stay diligent.

As always, the players in this article must be rostered in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues. Players are listed in the order that I recommend adding them, assuming they are equally good fits for your team.

Adds for All Leagues

Zach Collins, Trail Blazers (39

The Trail Blazers and the 76ers both play five games this week, a rare scheduling quirk that Fantasy managers should take advantage of as much as possible. Unfortunately, neither team has that many waiver wire prospects, but managers in non-games-max leagues should prioritize the few addable Blazers and 76ers.

We're far enough into the season that short-term injuries impact a lot of the waiver wire prospects listed below. Not every player we add will be a home run, but out teams can still benefit greatly from a series of smaller positive moves.

And while not every add is a home run, some of the season's best additions are probably still ahead of us. Remember: at this time last season, Donovan Mitchell was still unownable in Fantasy, ranked outside of the top-180, was averaging 9.3 points per game and had yet to play 30 minutes in any game. He would finish the season inside Fantasy's top-55 and inside the top-30 in points per game. In most leagues, he was the only player who came off the waiver wire and averaged 20 points per game.

Mitchell's 2017-18 breakout began in Game No. 8. Every NBA team plays their eighth game in Week 8. Stay diligent.

As always, the players in this article must be rostered in less than two-thirds of CBS leagues. Players are listed in the order that I recommend adding them, assuming they are equally good fits for your team.

Adds for All Leagues

Zach Collins, Trail Blazers (39 percent rostered)
Collins is one of the top adds here mostly because of the Blazers' five-game week. If you're in a league with a strict games max, or if you're more focused on long-term value, he'd fall below Danny Green and be roughly even with E'Twaun Moore. But five games in a single week is a ton, and in most formats, it's hard for anything to compete with that value. The 20-year-old, 2017 lottery pick is averaging 20.4 minutes per game, and he has at least 11 points and one three in three of his past four games. Most importantly, he's averaging 2.2 blocks per game. Blocks are probably the hardest category to find on the waiver wire, it's even harder to find them from a player who doesn't harm a roster everywhere else.

Damyean Dotson, Knicks (36 percent rostered)
As mentioned in the opening, not every waiver add is a long-term home run. Dotson probably has very little long-term value, even though he is startable in leagues of all sizes right now. He's seeing extra minutes due to the combination of the Knicks being very bad and injuries to Kevin Knox (ankle) and Courtney Lee (neck). Knox is expected to miss at least another two weeks, Lee is without a timetable for return, and the Knicks are probably going to stay very bad until James Dolan sells the team -- so Dotson should have at least two more weeks of Fantasy value. Over his past three games, he's averaging 15.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 3.0 threes in 32 minutes per game. That's much better than your typical waiver-wire pickup.

Danny Green, Raptors (56 percent rostered)
Green is one of the players I focused on last week and there isn't much to add. He has played at least 30 minutes in all but one game this season, and that was a 21-point blowout win. He's now up to 3.0 threes per game, tied for 11th in the league. Green doesn't have the upside of Donovan Mitchell, but he's a guy who will probably stick on your roster all season long.

E'Twaun Moore, Pelicans (35 percent rostered)
Another widely owned player who was highly recommended last week. Averaging 29.6 minutes per game, shooting 48.1 percent from the field, and without any meaningful playing time threat, Moore is another player likely to stick on your roster for the entire season.

Kelly Oubre, Wizards (46 percent rostered)
Otto Porter has been a top-25 Fantasy player for the last two seasons, and he's still only 25 years old. It makes no sense that he just randomly forgot how to basketball. He has struggled, but the smart money says that he'll return to his typical productive ways sooner rather than later.

With that said… there is something wrong in D.C. The Wizards are 1-5. Their only win came in overtime, they lost to the Kings – the Kings! – and they've lost two of their last three by more than 20 points. A trade to shake things up is very possible, and Porter is the player most likely to get dealt in that scenario. Oubre has been good for years, but he's been stuck behind Porter in the rotation. The combination of injuries and Porter's struggles has led to some extra minutes for Oubre, and he's made the most of them. Over a three-game span, he averaged 20.3 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.7 threes in 32.7 minutes. Oubre is currently just a speculative add, but if things break the right way for him he could become one of the most important pickups of the season.

Other suggestions: Al-Farouq Aminu, Trail Blazers (64 percent rostered); Bryn Forbes, Spurs (26 percent rostered); Ish Smith, Pistons (32 percent rostered); Reggie Bullock, Pistons (18 percent rostered); Bojan Bogdanovic, Pacers (52 percent rostered)

I'm Not Running

Players who are being widely added,but should not be considered priority adds. It's OK to add these guys, but the current hype or excitement belies their actual value.

Cameron Payne, Bulls (36 percent rostered)
Payne's perceived value got a huge boost after Kris Dunn (knee) suffered an injury in his season debut last week. And Payne warrants an add in deep leagues, but he doesn't have a ton of standard-league value. Dunn has only played in one game, and Payne is averaging just 11.0 points, 4.2 assists and 2.0 rebounds in 24.2 minutes in games without Dunn. Payne made seven three-pointers in one night against the Hornets last week, but he's gone without a made three in four of six games thus far.

Nerlens Noel, Thunder (28 percent owned)
I came into the season as a huge Noel advocate based on his incredible Fantasy efficiency. He's a supremely talented defender, and his ability to rack up a ton of steals and blocks in limited court time – combined with his high field goal percentage and rebounds – makes it so that he can be a top-100 producer in barely 20 minutes per game. As many of us expected, Noel is dominating the backup center minutes.

The problem is that Noel has not played a single minute all season while Steven Adams (calf) was on the court, and Adams is averaging 34.0 minutes per game. That only leaves 14 minutes a night for Noel when Adams is healthy. That's just not enough. Adams missed Sunday's game, giving Noel the opportunity to show why I was so excited about him in the preseason. He responded with 20 points, 15 rebounds, four steals, two assists and one block in just 26 minutes. Understandably, that had some managers scurrying to the waiver wire to add him.

But Adams' injury is very much a short-term one. If you want to add Noel, that's OK, just know what you're getting into. It only makes sense if you think he's earned the right to play alongside Steven Adams for up to six minutes per game. I don't think that's likely, though the potential upside here is very high.

Another player in this scenario: Elie Okobo, Suns (16 percent rostered)

Too Early to Cut Bait

Players who are being dropped in many leagues but may still warrant a roster spot, depending on league settings and depth.

Malik Monk, Hornets
Jeremy Lamb, Hornets
Will Barton, Nuggets
George Hill, Cavaliers
Mo Bamba, Magic;
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Clippers

Deep League Special

Noah Vonleh, Knicks (15 percent rostered)
Vonleh has had a few good games, including a season-opening double-double and a box-score-stuffing 7 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals, one block and one three on Friday. Vonleh was part of a totally revamped starting lineup that the Knicks busted out for Friday's game against the Warriors. We don't yet have any reason to believe that the new starting lineup will get used against normal teams, but the fact that Vonleh was included in it is a positive sign for his long-term role with the team. He's averaging 18.0 minutes per game, and provides well-balanced – if unspectacular – production.

Other suggestions: Cory Joseph, Pacers (7 percent rostered); Jeff Green, Wizards (5 percent rostered); Nik Stauskas, Trail Blazers (17 percent rostered); Jordan Clarkson, Cavaliers (30 percent rostered)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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