This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As we look at Friday's nine-game slate, the lack of high-paced affairs stands out. The highest O/U of the lot clocks in at 225 (WAS/BKN). To make things more difficult, there are blowout minefields littered all over the place (BOS/ATL, NY/CHA, MIL/CLE, GS/SAC). To sum it up, expect low totals and pivot to your second-unit plays in the blowout matches – especially if you want to win a GPP.
First, let's sum up what's happening on the injury front:
Kawhi Leonard (hip): Status is unknown. If he's out, expect output to be absorbed by Pascal Siakam ($5,900), Serge Ibaka ($6,300) and Kyle Lowry ($8,200) with Fred VanVleet ($4,800) playing the true pivot.
Jimmy Butler (groin): Status is also unclear, but I suspect Butler's chances are slim. Joel Embiid ($10,300) is your elite chalk pivot here, with guys like Furkan Korkmaz ($3,800) and J.J. Redick ($5,100) providing cheaper ways to get in on this game.
Aside from Victor Oladipo and Hassan Whiteside's return, the long-term casualties like Tristan Thompson and Goran Dragic are still out there. Mentioning every pivot would unnecessarily lengthen this article – I'll assume you know what to do with them.
If I had to go to the well with any game, it would likely be the late-night match between Toronto and Portland. As the night progresses, you could get a bead on the Kawhi situation and pivot like crazy all over this game depending on the news. If you're not out and about as games lock, this is a sneaky way to reap low-owned value tonight.
The Kings are the only team playing the second game of a back-to-back, so all of the other teams are well-rested.
I'll now make three selections at guard, forward and center along with an additional list of non-highlighted players. When possible, I will include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play for each spot.
GUARDS
John Wall, WAS at BKN, ($9,500): Picking a guard at the elite level is the most difficult decision I have on Fridays, but I settled on Wall as my spend-up play due to the pace of the matchup and the narrow spread. If Brooklyn can keep the game competitive, I expect a good stat line for Wall over the other guys. Your other chalk guys will perform well tonight, but Wall earns the nod as a reliable producer carrying in a 41 DKFP total over the past three games.
C.J. McCollum, POR vs. TOR ($7,100): Unless I am loading up at guard, Damian Lillard likely goes over our price range. But I still want to get in on that game, so that leaves us with McCollum. And while the production of McCollum and Lillard seesaws on the regular, I think Toronto's ability to guard them both is in question, and a Kawhi absence would favor McCollum. He's coming off a 52 DKFP game against Memphis, and the shot-dependent guard will be a tremendous asset if he remains hot.
Terry Rozier, BOS vs. ATL ($4,600): I predict Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart's court time to take a dip in the second half, so Terry Rozier makes a lot of sense if you're sold on the blowout potential of this game. Even though he's fallen out of the starting lineup this season, his long-range ability and ball-distribution skills are still there. Rozier broke 30 DKFP easily when they torched Chicago last week, so I think Stevens will lean on Rozier as the team pulls away. Hayward will likely return tonight, but Jaylen Brown may miss again with his illness – giving Rozier more room to breathe.
Other guards to consider: Russell Westbrook, OKC at DEN ($10,800), Eric Bledsoe, MIL at CLE ($7,600), Kent Bazemore, ATL at BOS ($5,700)
FORWARDS
Paul George, OKC at DEN ($9,100): This game should be one of the more enjoyable games to watch tonight. George lit up for 54 DKFP against the Nuggets in their last meeting, and Denver is struggling to fill the hole left by Paul Millsap's injury. Despite the high altitude, I think George will exploit this weakness and steal some limelight from Westbrook.
Marcus Morris, BOS vs. ATL ($6,500): I think Morris finds his way into the game script in the same way Rozier does, but the absence of Al Horford is an added element that almost always brings Morris to the forefront. His usage bumps up 2.7 percent when Horford is off the court in a typical game, so his absence should give Morris a bump of five or six points.
Justise Winslow, MIA at MEM ($5,200): Winslow will come off the bench and provide a spark that the Heat will likely need down the stretch, and the guy can do damage quickly. Over the past five games, his court time has remained relatively steady in the 30-minute range. And while his output has been up and down, this game should be competitive enough to have Winslow play an integral part. Hassan Whiteside is back tonight, which downgrades Winslow a bit, but not enough to remove him from consideration.
SLEEPER ALERT: Kevin Knox, NY at CHA ($4,800): Assuming David Fitzdale remembers the 50 DKFP beat-down Knox gave to the Hornets in their last meeting, he'll give the rookie a lot of playing time once again. However, this is David Fitzdale we're talking about, and his Popovich-like rotation schemes are frustrating. Let's hope he remembers, as Knox's size and length will wreak havoc on Charlotte's interior defense.
Other forwards to consider: Domantas Sabonis, IND at PHI ($6,500), Pascal Siakam, TOR at POR ($5,900)
CENTERS
Let's face it: Joel Embiid is absolute chalk if Jimmy Butler is out and he's too crazy good not to mention, but let's assume you've gone guard-crazy and can't afford him? Here are three other options.
Enes Kanter, NY at CHA ($7,100): Kanter was underused when they lost to Charlotte earlier this week, so I'm hoping David Fitzdale improves on the 18-minute run he gave the big man in that game. If utilized correctly, Kanter sets up well against Cody Zeller and an otherwise porous Charlotte frontcourt. Aside from that terrible stat line against the Hornets, Kanter has been rock-solid over the past two weeks, and it's safe to assume Kanter just fell victim to his coach's haphazard substitutions in the previous game.
Steven Adams, OKC at DEN ($6,300):Nikola Jokic delivered one of his worst games of the season against the Thunder when they last met, and Adams came through with well over 30 in that matchup. While Jokic will be looking to exact some revenge, I think Adams may have his number. He's been a consistent producer against Denver over the past two seasons, and right now the Nuggets have holes everywhere due to injury. The Nuggets will have to lean on Jokic, which means more opportunities for Adams to get involved.
Serge Ibaka, TOR at POR ($6,300): Ibaka's one of the best mid-range targets on the slate, as he's now an everyday starter at the five for the Raptors. He's getting involved early and often and should give Jusuf Nurkic plenty of trouble inside. He's coming off a 43-DKFP game against the Warriors, marking his third straight over 40.
Additional centers to consider: Mason Plumlee, DEN vs. OKC ($4,300)
