This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.
Trail Blazers at Warriors
|Jusuf Nurkic||C||Lower Leg||OFS||9/1/2019|
Spread: GSW -7.5, opened GSW -8.0
Money Line: GSW -308, opened GSW -333
Over/Under: 219.0, opened 217.5
The spread might be worth avoiding here, as both teams hold a negative record ATS in their respective situations. Portland is 12-19 as the road team, while Golden State is 19-27-1 as the home team. It still seems like a strong place to pick the Warriors to win outright, however. Golden State is 35-12 when favored at home, and the Blazers are 10-21 when road underdogs. Both squads trend toward the under, with the Warriors 19-29 at home and the Blazers 22-25-1 on the road.
Game 1 Stats
Portland didn't opt to switch or trap screens set for Steph Curry, and the results were telling. Curry popped off for nine made threes, leading to 36 points, not to mention seven assists, six rebounds and a steal. Thompson wasn't nearly as good, but he still dropped 26 points on 24 shots, and he had three steals and two blocks. The only other player for the Warriors in double-figures was Draymond Green, who had 12 points on 11 shots while also contributing 10 boards, five dimes, three swats and two swipes. Curry and Thompson were head and shoulders above their teammates in terms of usage rate, and they make for the most enticing fantasy options for Golden State.
Neither Damian Lillard nor C.J. McCollum could find their stroke in Game 1, as the duo combined for 36 points on 31 shots. And though it's not a good sign, Maurice Harkless and Rodney Hood were the two Blazers who kept the game manageably close through three quarters. Harkless had 17 points on 12 shots, plus three blocks and steal, with a plus-1 net rating in 30 minutes. Hood posted 17 points on eight shots and had a plus-31 net rating in 26 minutes. Enes Kanter had a monster game on the glass with 16 boards, but he committed four turnovers to three assists and had just 10 points. All-in-all, Portland had four non-garbage-time players with a usage rate over 20% – Lillard, McCollum, Harkless and Zach Collins, who had eight points on six shots, plus four rebounds, one assist and a block in just 18 minutes. Those players are who I'd be looking towards in DFS, and Collins especially may see more run in Game 2 if coach Terry Stotts wants to switch more screens.