FanDuel NBA: Wednesday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Wednesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Wednesday brings an 11-game slate, one in which we can expect plenty of offense -- FanDuel Sportsbook has six of those games with a projected total of 220 points or more. Several of those games are inter-conference matchups, although one of the biggest barn burners of the slate sets up as a signature, fast-paced Western Conference battle between the Suns and Warriors.

Before delving into the slate, a reminder that FanDuel is reverting to its previous format of NOT dropping the lowest scoring in lineups after a one-year experiment with that feature. Therefore, it will be important to be prudent with each selection, as each player's total will count toward your final score.

Without further ado, let's take a more comprehensive look at Wednesday's slate!

Slate Overview

Of those games with particularly elevated totals, here's a closer look at three that could be particularly fertile environments for DFS production:

Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards (Projected total: 230.5 points)

This interconference tilt projects as the highest-scoring game of the night, and deservedly so. Both teams are playing at paces that rank in the top half of the league and Houston is both scoring and allowing over 117 points per contest in the early going. The firepower in the form of Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Bradley Beal and Rui Hachimura, among others, is certainly there for either side.

Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors (Projected total: 229.5 points)

This is a game that has the potential to turn into an old-fashioned Western Conference shootout between two teams that are also playing at accelerated paces. Golden State and Phoenix are also averaging 116.0 and 114.0 points per game, respectively, while the Warriors are also surrendering the second-most points (128.0) per contest. The usual suspects for the Dubs are poised for potentially explosive performances here, while pieces like Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre, Jr. could also be primed for big nights on the other side.  

Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers (Projected total: 223.0 points)

This intriguing battle of unbeatens has a chance to shoot out with so much offensive talent on either side. A Joel Embiid-Karl-Anthony Towns showdown figures to take center stage here, but there's plenty more to like on either squad as well. Both squads come in ranked in the top 10 in possessions per game, and Minnesota is notably averaging the fourth-most points per contest (121.3) over its first three.

Other Likely High-Scoring Games: Trail Blazers-Thunder; Bucks-Celtics; Hornets-Kings

Positional Breakdown

As is often the case with such a large slate, we have a solid cross-section of options at each position across the salary cap. There isn't any one particular spot that presents as especially scarce, and injuries continue to be relatively light across the league at the moment, which is certainly helping out overall depth.

If trying to pin down the most stacked position top to bottom, I might have to give shooting guard the nod. Not only is there James Harden up top, but the next four options below him in terms of price -- Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, D'Angelo Russell and Donovan Mitchell -- all arguably have ceilings that outpace their current price tags. Then, there's some viable value even in the high $3K/low $4K range with options such as Jordan Poole, Pat Connaughton, Damion Lee and Treveon Graham among those.

Injury Situations to Monitor

Wendell Carter, CHI

Carter is considered probable for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers with a thumb injury, one which he played through Monday against the Knicks.

Otto Porter, CHI

Porter is considered probable for Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers due to a mouth injury.

Enes Kanter/Daniel Theis, BOS

Kanter remains out Wednesday against the Bucks due to a knee injury, while Theis is questionable with an ankle issue. Robert Williams looks primed to see some extra minutes at minimum with Kanter sidelined, and he could be called on for a starting role if Theis is forced to sit as well.

Nicolas Batum, CHA

Batum is slated to miss several weeks with his finger injury, which could result in a slight bump in minutes for starter Miles Bridges, as well as Malik Monk and Marvin Williams on the second unit.

Dennis Smith and Elfrid Payton, NYK

Smith (personal-bereavement) is considered a game-time decision for Wednesday's contest against the Magic. Meanwhile, Payton has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. Smith would presumably draw the start at point guard if he's able to suit up, while Frank Ntilikina would likely vault into the starting role should both players sit.

Jeremy Lamb and Edmond Sumner, IND

Lamb is expected to play in Wednesday's game against the Nets after overcoming a hip injury. Meanwhile, Sumner is questionable with hand soreness. If Sumner is unable to suit up as Lamb's backup, Justin Holiday would be line for some extra minutes at shooting guard.

Reggie Jackson, DET

Jackson has been ruled out for Wednesday's game against the Raptors. Tim Frazier has drawn starts for Jackson in the latter's last two absences, but Derrick Rose is the guard that's likely to benefit the most in terms of opportunity despite coming off the bench.

Steven Adams, OKC

Adams is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Trail Blazers with a left knee bruise. An absence by the big man would lead to extra minutes for Nerlens Noel and Mike Muscala at center.

Zach Collins, POR

Collins is out for Wednesday's game against the Thunder with a shoulder injury. Anthony Tolliver drew the start for Collins on Monday against the Spurs and logged 29 minutes, while Mario Hezonja also saw 19 minutes off the bench.  

Kevon Looney and Willie Cauley-Stein, GSW

Looney will remain out Wednesday due to his hamstring injury, but Cauley-Stein is considered probable to make his season debut after dealing with a foot injury.

C.J. Miles, WAS

Miles will remain out Wednesday with his foot injury. However, fellow wing Troy Brown has recovered from his calf injury and is expected to make his season debut, while Isaac Bonga, who'd been starting in place of both players, should continue to see solid minutes as well.

Notable Long-Term Injuries/Absences: Blake Griffin, DET; Marvin Bagley, SAC; Deandre Ayton, PHO; Victor Oladipo, IND

Elite Players

Similar to Monday, we have an abundance of players at all points across the salary spectrum to choose from. Each position is well-stocked, so this shapes up as a slate where there's not one elite play that becomes more prudent to pay up for than another based on positional scarcity alone. 

However, as discussed earlier, one consideration for a fade could be Harden, as shooting guard offers several options with upside a notch or two below The Beard at savings of $1.5K and up. The fact Harden has started the season shooting 28.6 percent also makes the $11k price a little easier to bypass, especially since he should see plenty of Bradley Beal's pesky defense Wednesday.

One other note involves the power forward position overall – with Giannis Antetokounmpo now labeled as a small forward on FanDuel and Blake Griffin still out for the Pistons, power forward doesn't have a signature "elite" play like the other positions. There's still solid depth at the four, but this is one area where you can potentially slot in a pair of high-end selections from the likes of Kevin Love ($8,600), Domantas Sabonis ($8,400), Julius Randle ($8,200) or Draymond Green ($8,000) and still build a balanced lineup elsewhere.

Expected Chalk

The big slate and the number of big names it brings should keep ownership among those high-end options fairly spread out. In terms of injury-influenced chalk, the pool there should also be fairly shallow. There aren't an inordinate amount of confirmed/expected absences for such a large ledger of games by any stretch, and the potential fill-ins in some of those injury scenarios don't exactly set DFS pulses racing.

One exception will be Derrick Rose, who should continue to log plenty of minutes with Reggie Jackson (back) out again. Rose is still expected to come off the bench with Tim Frazier drawing the start, but he should see more minutes than the latter. Over in OKC, whichever of Nerlens Noel and Mike Muscala draws the start if Steven Adams is ruled out could also be popular, although it's possible both players split the minutes fairly evenly if Adams can't go.

One other potential higher ownership spot will be the Frank Kaminsky/Aron Baynes duo in Phoenix. Not only are the Suns part of the game with the highest projected total of the night, but both players have performed well while filling in for Deandre Ayton (suspension) thus far.

Key and Likely Under-owned Values

T.J. Warren, IND at BKN ($5,900):

Warren got off to a slow start with his new team but was looking like himself by his most recent contest Monday against the Pistons. The talented wing tallied 40.5 FanDuel points in that game and now draws a favorable matchup against a Nets squad that's allowed 45.8 FanDuel points per contest to SFs, along with 53.0 percent shooting to the position. Brooklyn is also averaging an NBA-high 117.6 possessions per game, opening up even more opportunity than usual for Warren.

P.J. Tucker, HOU at WAS ($5,600):

Tucker has gotten the new season off to a highly efficient start, shooting 64.3 percent through three games and averaging an elevated 6.0 three-point attempts per contest. That's helped lead to tallies of 26.4 to 35.3 FanDuel points for the veteran, who now draws a matchup against a Wizards squad allowing 39.8 FanDuel points per game to power forwards thus far this season.

Isaiah Thomas, WAS vs. HOU ($4,700):

Thomas enjoyed a successful season debut Saturday against the Spurs, totaling 25.1 FanDuel points over 20 minutes of action. The veteran guard is expected to be limited to around that allotment of playing time for the foreseeable future, but as he demonstrated against San Antonio, he's capable of offering a nice return on his current price with that degree of opportunity. Thomas put up an impressive 14 shots during his modest time on the court Saturday and makes for cost-effective exposure to the game with the highest projected total of the night.

Jevon Carter, PHO at GSW ($4,000):  

Carter has been a pleasant surprise for an improved Suns team in the early going. The 2018 second-round pick has a pair of double-digit scoring efforts over his first four games, logged 27 minutes off the bench even with Ricky Rubio returning from injury in Phoenix's most recent contest, and has posted over 25 FanDuel points in each of the last two games. With a seemingly secure bench role and his participation in a game with the second-highest projected total of the night, Carter makes for a potentially rewarding value play at near minimum price, especially against a Warriors team tied for the fifth-highest shooting percentage (45.0) allowed to point guards thus far this season.

ALSO CONSIDER: Glenn Robinson, GSW vs. PHO

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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