This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We've got a huge 12-game slate to tackle, so let's get right to the action!
SLATE OVERVIEW
TOR (-6) vs. PHI, O/U: 218.5
ORL (-1.5) vs. OKC, O/U: 208.5
SAC (-1.5) @ DET, O/U: 220.5
BOS (-6.5) vs. MEM, O/U 233
MIA (-9.5) vs. WAS, O/U: 229.5
LAL (-11) vs. NY, O/U: 224
HOU (-8) vs. DEN, O/U: 228.5
CHI (-0.5) vs. MIN, O/U: 219
PHO (-1) vs. IND, O/U: 221.5
NO (-3.5) vs. SA, O/U: 236
There are far too many players to name tonight, so I want to aim you toward a couple of teams so you can do your own homework a bit, especially in the value department. Give a good look at NO, MIN and MEM once their starting lineups are set, and make some educated guesses beyond what I've given you. You can also find some spots for the Wizards, who will be underdogs against the Heat but should still have some scoring opportunities.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Andre Drummond (face) QUESTIONABLE
It's possible that we'll see Drummond anyway - he just won't be able to talk much smack with a lip laceration if he plays. If he does sit out. I'd expect to see a bit more for Christian Wood ($4,000).
Paul George (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Stay tuned here, because George's return may be imminent and could occur tonight. If not, continue to run with the Clippers as per usual, with Lou Williams ($7,300) and Montrezl Harrell ($6,800) serving as mid-range targets.
Jaylen Brown (ankle) OUT
I'd pivot to Gordon Hayward ($5,800) if Brown is out.
Jamal Murray (ankle) OUT
Paul Millsap (knee) OUT
Mason Plumlee (foot) OUT
Gary Harris (groin) DOUBTFUL
Things go from bad to worse in Denver, as Plumlee's foot issue has added to the injury malaise that has attacked the Nuggets. Anyone who's played with Denver on the slate recently knows the frustration here. You have to make a run with Michael Porter Jr. ($6,600) despite the elevated price, and you can also hold your nose and opt for Monte Morris ($4,700) to assume the role at point guard.
RJ Barrett (ankle) OUT
The ankle sprain will sideline Barrett for a couple of days. It looks like Damyean Dotson ($3,000) got some extra playing time in his absence, so he's worth a flier along with the remainder of the Knicks starters.
ELITE PLAYERS
We've got four guys at 10k or more tonight, and I think LeBron James ($10,800) against the Knicks is probably the best option out of the four. You can quickly eliminate Towns due to his minute restriction, leaving Harden and Leonard at the top. I would be surprised if Leonard played, as he's sat every back-to-back up to this point, so I'm considering him out until I hear otherwise. I don't think Harden is a bad play, but he struggled mightily with his shot against the Thunder, so it may be a night to move your money off Harden tonight against the Nuggets, and if you really want a piece of this game, opt for Russell Westbrook ($9,800) instead.
Trae Young, ATL ($9,300) vs. LAC
The slightly gassed Clippers might be in line for a challenge against the Hawks, who are playing decent ball despite dropping three of their last five games. Young is back to his high-flying self after a few off games, and over the past four contests he's averaging a dizzying 57 DKFP per game. One could argue that you're getting James or Harden-type numbers at a discount here, but Young's history against the Clippers this season leaves a bit to be desired (36.8 DKFP in their last meeting.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
OK, HERE is where I'll address it, and I won't mention it again -- will Zion play? Will he not play? What will he have for lunch? All eyes will be on the Pelicans' inactives list, but I'm going to tell you right away that I'm not interested -- at least, not yet. If he suits up, you could potentially make an argument for a GPP add, but that's it. He's a human being. He's been hurt. Don't get subjective.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,400) vs. WAS
Although the price doesn't thrill me, Adebayo add will likely reap generous rewards against the Wizards, who can't stand up against most opposing big men. Over two games against them, Adebayo's averaged 45 DKFP per game, and that's just above 5k value. I'm ok with that, but I'd like to see a slightly higher number. The average suggests that he can certainly go higher.
Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($8,300) vs. OKC
The number of centers in plum spots is remarkable, and Vucevic adds to the list with Steven Adams ailing and potentially out tonight. He should produce more than the 33 DKFP outing he had against the Thunder if Adams is off the court, and although Vucevic's floor isn't as high as other centers on the slate, this should be a night where he pops for an above-average line.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($7,800) vs. GS
I haven't called Mitchell's number that much this season, and that's mostly due to his habit of coming in under value relative to his price. With 44 DKFP against the Warriors in their last game, Mitchell gets back in my good graces if he can replicate that performance, as that's pretty much the kind of production I'd expect at this price. When you're looking for a ceiling, it helps to find a guy who won't destroy your lineup if he doesn't get there, and Mitchell's floor is solid enough for me to whether any potential variance that might crop up.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,300) @ TOR
Harris is just on the borderline for me here, but I have to think we can get Harris over his 35 DKFP average against the Raptors without Embiid in the mix. I expected Harris to be more consistent with Embiid off the floor and while he's blown up into the 50 DKFP range once, most of his stat lines have been in line with his usual production. I'm going to give him one more run here based on his game history and potential.
Andrew Wiggins, MIN ($6,700) vs. CHI
I know Wiggins has a value-beating score in him tonight, but Zach LaVine and Chicago will probably do a decent job of containing him. He's more of a GPP play for me based on the variance, but if he can get enough rebounds (a reasonable expectation against Chicago) and pair that with a slightly more accurate shot, he should get to a number we'll be happy with.
Kendrick Nunn, MIA ($6,100) vs. WAS
Although Goran Dragic is probable to play, his presence hasn't impacted Nunn that much at all. In fact, he's in the midst of an impressive five-game tear and is a threat to top 40 DKFP on an almost nightly basis. I don't expect the Wizards to offer much resistance Although Nunn's appearances against Washington have been just so-so, you have to factor in that one of those games was early in the season before Nunn had really established himself.
VALUE PLAYS
Elfrid Payton, NY ($5,000) vs. LAL
I think Payton will be forced to step up a bit with RJ Barrett sidelined, and although LeBron and the Lakers are a force to be reckoned with, Payton's connection to former Laker Julius Randle will be tough for anyone to stop. The matchup between Randle and Anthony Davis should be fun to watch (assuming Davis plays), and even if Payton fails to convert many assists with him, he should have enough opportunity to create his own shots and come down with a decent total.
Matisse Thybulle, PHI ($4,600) @ TOR
I wanted to wait a bit until we had some more reliable data for him, but Thybulle is doing enough in the ancillary categories for him to be relevant and note-worthy. Although you can't depend on him as a scorer, he's doing well in every other category, adding a full complement of rebounds, assists, blocks and especially steals. Usage will be his biggest culprit as it's difficult to estimate how much time he'll get, but I suspect his presence will be a bit more dependable while Embiid is out.
Jordan Clarkson, UTA ($4,500) @ GS
Working on the assumption that Utah takes a big lead in this game, I think Clarkson should be in line for an increased role as a cleanup guy. All he has to do is pop a 25 DKFP score to justify his price point, and based on his recent stat lines, that's a totally doable number.
