This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Sunday's three-game slate kicks off at 1 p.m. EDT with two first-round contests and the first game between Boston and Toronto in the second round.
SLATE OVERVIEW
BOS vs. TOR (-2.5) O/U 216
LAC vs. DAL (+10.5) O/U:238.5
DEN vs. UTA (-2.5) O/U: 219.5
Target games in BOLD, faded games in ITALIC - odds subject to change
It's the last gasp for Denver and Dallas, but the value is still abundant on these rosters - especially for the Mavericks, who may be subject to multiple injury absences on Sunday. The most fadeable game is our newest offering, as the Celtics-Raptors matchup figures to have the slowest pace on the slate.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
The most significant gap on this slate occurs between $7,700 -$7,200, which is the most significant differential aside from the $1,200 gap between Luka Doncic and Kawhi Leonard at the top. With only two 10k-plus players on the slate, it's possible to pair 2-3 players at multiple positions in the 8k-9k range, and it will be even easier to stay below $50,000 with a few key injury pivots.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Kristaps Porzingis (knee) OUT
Luka Doncic (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Tim Hardaway (cervix) QUESTIONABLE
Dorian Finney-Smith (hip) QUESTIONABLE
Trey Burke (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Porzingis may have played his final game of the year and his absence has visibly hurt the Mavs. Meanwhile, the brief playoff pause could have been the best thing to happen for Doncic, who struggled with his ankle in Game 4. Although not noticeably hurt, he will almost certainly take the floor and an extra few days of rest should help his cause. Boban Marjanovic ($4,000) hasn't exactly lit up the floor as he did during the seeding games, so he isn't my favorite injury pivot on the slate despite the opportunity. I like Maxi Kleber ($5,200) a lot more, and Seth Curry ($4,500) sets up as good value if Hardaway and Burke are out. The Mavs only have a 12-player roster in the bubble and things will get incredibly thin without Smith, Hardaway AND Finney-Smith, so I'd expect one or more of them to suit up and play. It's advisable to wait until the starting five to invest here, although Doncic and Kleber are safe bets regardless of what we see at game lock.
Kyle Lowry (ankle) PROBABLE
Lowry's progress with his ankle summons a sigh of relief for Raptors fans, and the extra rest time elevates him to probable for Game 1. We won't know if he's compromised until the game begins, but DraftKings has responded with a $200 salary drop. His affordability is something to consider despite the wealth of opportunities at the guard position.
Gary Harris (hip) QUESTIONABLE
We thought we might see Harris in Game 5, but he may finally appear today. HIs usage would be a huge question mark if he suited up, but his presence would significantly affect Monte Morris's output. Monitoring this spot is more about the exclusion of Morris than the inclusion of Harris in lineups.
Patrick Beverley (calf) QUESTIONABLE
If Beverley shows up, both Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet's usage will take a dip, and game lock will reveal who the Clippers start at point guard. Beverley hasn't played more than 20 minutes in a bubble game, and I think Jackson will still offer some value even if Beverley returns.
ELITE PLAYERS
We have already touched on Luka Doncic ($11,200), who will probably look more effective after a few days off that ankle. There's no denying his talent and inherent ability to rack up an insane amount of points, but you need around 56 points out of Doncic to justify his current cost. Making this play carries risk because we don't know how much the ankle will affect him, but he'll probably show some improvement after a four-day break. Rostering Doncic hurts some of the excellent opportunities in the 8-9k range I mentioned earlier, but he may very well end up beating value in this must-win game.
Kawhi Leonard ($10,100) lies $1100 below Doncic, and I'd be 100 percent behind Leonard if we see yet another poor game from Paul George ($8,300). Kawhi's output is comparable to Doncic's when he carries his team, but the resurgence of George is enough to give me pause. You're going to see a lot of lineups without Leonard and George, and it may be the best way to go based on the potential ceilings of other players. I will still field some builds with one or the other, but I don't think it's worth sacrificing $22,300 to get both of them in.
Donovan Mitchell) ($9,700) and Jayson Tatum ($9,200) highlight the selections in the 9k range. Despite his excellent bubble campaign, I just don't see giving much exposure to Mitchell. On the other hand, Gordon Hayward's absence has helped Tatum's cause and the talented forward is due for a big coming-out moment in the playoffs. Even at $9,200, I think he's a great candidate to crush value on Sunday.
Also consider: Nikola Jokic, DEN ($9,500) vs. UTA
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Jamal Murray, DEN ($8,600) vs. UTA
Murray's brilliant two-game run is unparalleled on this slate, and I'm amazed to see a salary below 9k today. Even if he sees a 10-DKFP dip in production, his point-per dollar value will still be excellent. Murray holds one of the highest exposure percentages for me on this slate.
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($8,100) vs. BOS
It's a relief to field these Toronto guys without fear now, as the blowout possibilities against Brooklyn made many players wary about giving their studs much coverage. Despite Tatum's recent surge, Siakam should fare well while he covers the four and can be counted on to grab a lot of boards and sink some mid-range shots. Although his 40.5 field-goal percentage in the bubble is a slight dip below his usual numbers, it's probably due to a lukewarm record beyond the arc in Orlando. The rest of Siakam's numbers remain constant, and the forward offers one of the most reliable floors available.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($7,700) vs. BOS
VanVleet's salary is still shockingly low, and I think his ceiling makes him worth $8,000 at the bare minimum with all due respect to the DK crew. It's fine with me! I'll continue to ride VanVleet as I've done for most of the bubble, and he'll be relied on to lead the second unit as he's done several times already in Orlando if the Raptors end up controlling this game. Although guys like Terence Davis ($3,800) will be first in line to spell Kyle Lowry, the latter's ankle concerns could give VanVleet an even bigger role in the backcourt.
Mike Conley, UTA ($6,600) vs. DEN
When Conley is dialed in, there isn't a better sharpshooting point guard in the game. Although there was some immediate regret in sending Ricky Rubio packing early this season, Conley's bounced back in a big way and remains one of the best value-beating options for the Jazz at an attractive salary. His dependability and median salary make him a cash game lock, and I also will put him in some GPP builds.
Serge Ibaka, TOR ($6,200) vs. BOS
Ibaka will be an incredibly popular play at center. He's outplayed Marc Gasol, who's been largely ineffective in the bubble. And although Ibaka's height isn't as much of a requirement as it was against the Nets, he's earned his stripes and will still see a full allotment of minutes. With two straight games of around 50 DKFP, the big man just stands under the basket and keeps grabbing the boards with a 14.5 average over the last two games.
KEY VALUES
Refer to the injury section for some great value plays, but here are some other cheap Sunday options.
Norman Powell, TOR ($5,100) vs. BOS
You can find several reasons to talk yourself out of rostering Powell, and I think I've run through most of them over the past three weeks. Even though he doesn't show any scenarios that justify a boost in production, he finds a way to make a big play every time he takes the court. Powell especially excels in transition and can slash through the interior with some acrobatic feats to the basket. He's still volatile and his last two games showed a differential of 25 DKFP. That's a lot, but it also represents a lot of upside. Like, 8x-value upside.
Jerami Grant, DEN ($4,800) vs. UTA
Grant has become a fixture in the Nuggets' lineup because Michael Porter is underdeveloped defensively. Although Porter offers the most offensive potential, coach Michael Malone can't afford to keep Porter on the floor when he continues to miss zone assignments. He also coughs up the ball a considerable amount, and these are errors Grant doesn't make with the same frequency. His output doesn't excite me, but I predict an uptick as the Nuggets try to keep their mistakes to a minimum in a must-win game.
Montrezl Harrell, LAC ($4,600) vs. DAL
I think it's finally safe to play Harrell, especially if this game turns into another Clipper blowout. His lack of conditioning is visibly apparent, and his upside is better even though I like Ivica Zubac's ($4,600) potential on Sunday. We saw glimpses of his dominance and aggressiveness in his last game, and it resulted in a value-beating 37 DKFP in 22 minutes.
Go to our Advanced Lineups page for the latest information as games lock, especially for the LAC/DAL matchup that tips off at 3.30 p.m. Best of luck!
