FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Tuesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

After a modest five-game slate Monday, the NBA returns in full force Tuesday with a 10-game ledger that doesn't feature an overabundance of games with very high projected totals. Such environments are usually good for DFS purposes, as they tend to keep starters on the floor for significant minutes and include plenty of opportunities for production across the board for multiple players on either side.

Slate Overview

Here's a further look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Tuesday's slate:

Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards (Projected total: 237.5 points):

It's no surprise this game differentiates itself in terms of projected total from the rest of the slate, as it features two fast-paced, defensively challenged squads that are still looking for their first victories. This contest could therefore be an example of how a "bad" real-life game between two sub-par squads can turn into a DFS feast. Chicago is allowing the second-most points per game (126.0) in the early going, while Washington checks in closely behind with the fifth-most points (121.0) surrendered. The Bulls and Wizards also rank in the bottom in shooting percentage allowed (49.5 percent and 47.2 percent, respectively) and are No. 2 (Bulls) and No. 7 (Wizards) in possessions per game as well. With names like Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal and Zach LaVine all on the floor, points are bound to pile up. 

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers (Projected total: 227.5 points): 

Karl-Anthony Towns has been ruled out with a wrist injury, while Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a mouth laceration. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are projecting this to be the second-highest scoring game of the slate as of Tuesday morning, with plenty of offensive talent still available on either side even if both stars are out. Minnesota has given up 113.0 points per contest and Los Angeles has yielded 113.7, so this total falls almost exactly in line with their combined averages. Additionally, the T-Wolves' No. 11 ranking in pace (107.6 possessions per game) represents a significant bump for the Clips, which have been averaging an NBA-low 100.2 per contest over their first three games.

Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons (Projected total: 226.5 points): 

The Warriors got into the win column with a one-point victory over the Bulls their last time out, and they now shoot for their second straight against a winless Pistons squad that's slated to get both Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose back into the lineup. There's no shortage of metrics that point to a potential shootout here. For starters, the Warriors allow the most points (130.3) and second-highest shooting percentage (50.6), and they're playing at an NBA-high pace of 114.9 possessions per game. The Pistons are right behind the Dubs with 122.3 points per contest allowed and 110.2 possessions per contest, while also allowing opponents to shoot 46.8 percent from the floor.

Positional Breakdown

PG: Westbrook heads up the position group in a very attractive matchup, while Stephen Curry is certainly a viable option in an appealing game environment of his own for those who need to save some salary. The pool is very deep below Curry, with the likes of Ben Simmons, De'Aaron Fox, Kyle Lowry, Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Paul and Darius Garland among those in action.

SG: Like backcourt-mate Westbrook, Beal is an excellent option if you're able to pay up for the highest-salaried player at the position. Jimmy Butler's likely absence does ding the depth at the two, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Khris Middleton, Paul George, Devin Booker, LaVine and  D'Angelo Russell are among those that help make up for Jimmy Buckets' projected lack of availability.

SF: Even if Leonard is forced to sit out with his mouth injury, there are still some appealing options at SF such as Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Tobias Harris, RJ Barrett and Harrison Barnes. This group doesn't feature as many truly dependable selections as the two backcourt spots, but there are some interesting players at the sub-$6K value level including Jerami Grant, Mikal Bridges, Will Barton and, for tournaments, a likely unpopular Kelly Oubre, who's had a nightmarish start to his season.

PF:  Giannis Antetokounmpo is head and shoulders above the pack at PF, but Jayson Tatum, Domantas Sabonis and Zion Williamson certainly aren't bad consolation choices if you can't quite foot the bill for the two-time MVP. Pascal Siakam and Julius Randle are also strong mid-salaried options at a level that also gets a boost from the expected return of Griffin from a load management day.

C: Towns' absence is naturally a significant one at this position, but Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid (who's trending toward suiting up) still gives us a pair of clear-cut elite options to work with. Andre Drummond (playing without Kevin Love), Nikola Vucevic, Bam Adebayo, Myles Turner and Deandre Ayton are also excellent alternatives that offer a tantalizing combination of upside and reasonable salaries.

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Key Injuries

Joel Embiid, PHI (back) Status: PROBABLE 

Embiid is considered likely to play after back tightness sidelined him for the 76ers' last contest. 

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (wrist) Status: OUT 

Towns' wrist dislocation has him week-to-week for the time being. Naz Reid should draw another start at center, while the usage for the remaining members of Minnesota's starting five should also rise.

Kawhi Leonard, LAC (mouth) Status: QUESTIONABLE  

Leonard was able to practice Monday after getting eight stitches to close the mouth laceration he sustained Christmas Night. However, he remains a likely game-time decision Tuesday, and if he sits, Paul George and the remaining members of the first unit should naturally benefit with increased usage rates. 

Kevin Love, CLE (calf) Status: OUT 

Love's absence should afford Larry Nance a start at power forward and boost the opportunities for the likes of Andre Drummond, Darius Garland and Collin Sexton. 

Draymond Green, GSW (foot) Status: OUT 

Green's ongoing absence will afford Eric Paschall another start at power forward Tuesday.

Jimmy Butler, MIA (ankle) Status: Doubtful

Butler's likely absence could afford Maurice Harkless or Andre Iguodala a start at small forward and will certainly lead to increased usage for the remainder of Miami's first unit. 

Lauri Markkanen, CHI (calf) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Markkanen sits with his calf bruise, it would likely clear the way for Thaddeus Young to make his 2020-21 debut as the starting power forward.

Marcus Morris, LAC (knee) Status: OUT 

Morris' ongoing absence will continue to afford Nicolas Batum a starting opportunity.

Thaddeus Young, CHI (lower leg) Status: PROBABLE 

If Young is available as expected, he could draw a start at power forward in place of Markkanen. 

Alec Burks, NYK (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

An absence by Burks would significantly depress the Knicks' second-unit scoring upside and potentially lead to increased minutes for starting two-guard Reggie Bullock. 

Isaac Okoro, CLE (foot) Status: OUT 

Okoro's absence, combined with the ongoing one for Kevin Porter (personal), projects to afford Cedi Osman a start at small forward. 

Josh Okogie, MIN (hamstring) Status: DOUBTFUL 

Okogie's projected absence would likely give Jarrett Culver a chance to start at small forward. 

Slated to return from load management days: Blake Griffin (DET); Derrick Rose (DET)

Other injuries of note:

James Ennis, ORL (hamstring) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Kevin Porter, CLE (personal) Status: OUT 

JaMychal Green, DEN (calf) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Kevin Knox, NYK (knee) Status: PROBABLE 

Jahlil Okafor, DET (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Torrey Craig, MIL (nose) Status: OUT 

Matthew Dellavedova, CLE (back) Status: OUT 

Al-Farouq Aminu, ORL (knee) Status: OUT 

Immanuel Quickley, NYK (hip) Status: OUT 

Obi Toppin, NYK (calf) Status: OUT 

Omari Spellman, NYK (knee) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Edmond Sumner, IND (illness) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Ty Jerome, OKC (ankle) Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Jalen Smith, PHO (ankle) Status: OUT

NOTABLE LONGER-TERM INJURIES: Kemba Walker, BOS (knee); Rui Hachimura, WAS (eye); Jeremy Lamb, IND (knee); Marquese Chriss (ankle); Patrick McCaw, TOR (knee); Furkan Korkmaz, PHI (thigh); Trevor Ariza, OKC (personal); Dario Saric, PHO (quadriceps); Austin Rivers, NYK (groin); Dylan Windler, CLE (hand); Romeo Langford, BOS (wrist); Goga Bitadze, IND (ankle); Abdel Nader, PHO (concussion) 

Elite Players

There are four players sporting five-figure salaries on the slate: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), Russell Westbrook ($10,600), Nikola Jokic ($10,300) and Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,200). However, as already discussed, only three of those players will take the floor with Towns already ruled out. Of the healthy trio, Westbrook particularly stands out when considering he's part of the game with the highest projected total of the night, while Jokic is coming off a massive triple-double against the Rockets on Monday that netted 69.8 FD points.

There is also plenty of potential for elite production from a number of four-figure-salaried players, such as Kawhi Leonard ($9,900) -- who comes with his injury caveat, Bradley Beal ($9,600), Joel Embiid ($9,600), Andre Drummond ($9,400), Stephen Curry ($9,400), Jayson Tatum ($9,200) and Ben Simmons ($8,900). Beal, Drummond and Simmons are of particular note in that group, considering the former is also part of the game with the highest projected total and faces a vulnerable Pistons team, while Drummond should see increased usage without Kevin Love on the court, and Simmons could potentially play without Embiid.

Expected Chalk

All of the names mentioned in the Elite Players section are naturally going to be very popular Tuesday, although with 20 teams taking the floor, there should be a good amount of variety in lineups. There could also certainly be some injury-related chalk with big names like Love and Towns already confirmed out, and others like Kawhi and Butler very iffy to play. If the latter two absences come to fruition, for example, the respective first-unit mates of both Leonard and Butler could increase in popularity.

Key Values

Luguentz Dort, OKC vs. ORL ($5,100) 

Dort has taken full advantage of the opportunity afforded him on a rebuilding Thunder squad, and he's embraced his expanded role to the tune of 20.5 points on 11.5 shot attempts over his first two games. The second-year wing's efficiency has been off the charts, with Dort shooting 60.9 percent, including 54.5 percent from three-point range on a robust average of 5.5 shots from distance. Naturally, the caveat about small sample size applies here so early in the season, but Dort, who's seen over 30 minutes in each of those two contests, is going to see his salary rise significantly in the coming days if he continues to produce at anywhere near the same clip. For Tuesday's purposes, he makes for an excellent value option against a Magic team that's surprisingly played at the league's ninth-fastest pace (108.1 possessions per game) through the first week, surrendering 113.3 points per contest and 49.1 percent shooting in the process.

Naz Reid, MIN at LAC ($4,500) 

As mentioned earlier, Karl-Anthony Towns will miss another game Tuesday, thrusting Reid back into the expanded role down low that he's performed admirably in thus far. The young big produced 28 FD points in his start against the Lakers on Sunday and also posted 24.5 FD points in the opener against the Pistons three games ago across just 17 minutes in a backup role. Reid should continue with the first unit Tuesday against a Clippers team that's given up the third-highest shooting percentage (62.9) to centers over its first three games and that's also ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency rating (56.7) allowed in the paint.

Cedi Osman, CLE vs. NYK ($4,200)

Osman's salary is nowhere near reflective of the expanded role he should enjoy Tuesday, as both Isaac Okoro (foot) and Kevin Porter (personal) are slated to remain out, while Kevin Love (calf) will also miss the game for the Cavaliers. The first two absences project to afford Osman a start at small forward, where he'll have a chance to build on the 24.0 FD points per game he's averaged over his first three contests despite playing no more than 25 minutes in any of them. Osman should be in for a 30-minute workload at minimum, making it very feasible for him to deliver a solid return, especially if he can keep up his red-hot early shooting pace (55.2 percent overall, including 52.9 percent from three-point range).  

Other value plays to consider: Chris Boucher, TOR at PHI ($5,900); Coby White, CHI at WAS ($5,900); Mikal Bridges, PHO vs. NO ($5,800); Larry Nance, CLE vs. NYK ($5,500); James Wiseman, GS at DET ($5,200); Duncan Robinson, MIA vs. MIL ($4,600); Cameron Johnson, PHO vs. NO ($4,400)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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