This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Monday's eight-game slate favors a spend-down approach at small forward and an elite strategy for our backcourt positions. We'll move forward with those ideas in mind as we highlight our Monday endorsements.
SLATE OVERVIEW
HOU @ CHA (+1.5) O/U: 220.5
TOR @ MEM (+ 2.5) O/U: 224.5
WAS @ CHI (-2.5) O/U: 237.5
GSW @ SAS (+1.5) O/U: 232.5
MIN @ DAL (-8.5) O/U: 222.5
CLE @ PHO (-6.5) O/U: 216.5
MIL @ DEN (+3.5) O/U: 229.5
OKC @ LAL (-12.5) O/U: 216.5
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC
Back-to-Back Teams: Wizards, Hornets, Suns
INJURIES
HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - OUT
DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) performed well as expected in Wood's stead with a 12/11 double-double. Get on the train now, because his salary will continue to climb.
CHA Devonte' Graham (groin) - QUESTIONABLE
While a pivot to LaMelo Ball ($7,800) is obvious (and expensive), Terry Rozier ($6,300) and Malik Monk ($4,700) would be cheaper contrarian value plays if Graham cannot go today.
WAS Russell Westbrook (possible rest) - QUESTIONABLE
Westbrook's services would be welcome in a winnable game for the Wizards, but he's yet to see the floor on the tail end of a back-to-back. This situation must be monitored closely. Production would flow to Ish Smith ($4,800) and Bradley Beal ($10,800) if Westbrook is a scratch. Raul Neto ($3,800) can also be considered with a Westbrook absence.
CHI Lauri Markkanen (shoulder) - DOUBTFUL
CHI Wendell Carter (quad) - OUT
CHI Otto Porter (back) - OUT
Frontcourt woes continue for the Bulls. While the starting lineup will absorb the blows here, Patrick Williams ($4.500) emerges as the value pivot while Thaddeus Young ($7,200) sees his salary climb.
TOR OG Anunoby (calf) - OUT
Norman Powell ($6,500) remains the key pivot for Anunoby until further notice.
MEM Brandon Clarke (calf) - OUT
The potential pivots here are muddy at best. The Grizzlies are another starting lineup worth checking to see who starts in Clarke's place tonight.
GSW James Wiseman (wrist) - OUT
GSW Eric Paschall (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
Unless you've been living under a DFS rock, you know that tons of value has opened up on this squad. We will look at some favorite calls later in the article.
SAS LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) - OUT
SAS Lonnie Walker (illness) - OUT
Interestingly, the value hunt in this spot lands on Rudy Gay ($4,000), who beat value easily across 25 minutes in the Spurs' last game. For maximum output, I will cautiously put some faith back into DeMar DeRozan ($8,100), but the remainder of the lineup has exceptional value as well.
Kevin Love (calf) - OUT
Larry Nance (finger) - OUT
I like Andre Drummond ($7,200) against the Suns, and his FanDuel salary is appealingly low. Although his minutes took a hit in the last game, Taurean Prince ($5,000) still works as a budget option.
DEN Jamal Murray (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
We may see Murray back tonight, but if not, Monte Morris ($4,200) will once again garner the start for the Nuggets.
ELITE PLAYERS
For the elites, there are several different ways we can go, but one of my favorite combos occurs in the high-paced Bulls-Wizards game. I really like pairing up Bradley Beal ($10,800) with Zach LaVine ($8,800) to fill up the two SG slots and just roll with the high point total. Two other guys to mix and match are Luka Doncic ($11,400) in a plum matchup against the Timberwolves, and Stephen Curry ($10,100) against the Spurs. There's going to be some blowout risk for Luka and that makes him a little cost-prohibitive, but I'll give him exposure in my builds nonetheless. Nikola Jokic ($11,600) sits atop the pile tonight, but there are other players I want in the valuable center spots that can help me afford my spend-up guard options.
Small forward is traditionally a spot where you need to take budget shots, but if LeBron James ($10,800) has eligibility, that usually determines a lot about the fate of your lineup if you spend up there. I don't mind his matchup against the Thunder at all, but he and Anthony Davis ($9,800) could pull a disappearing act if this game gets out of hand. As a result, I'm not too enthusiastic about either player. Another way to spend up a bit at power forward if you really can't resist splurging is by going with Pascal Siakam ($9,300) against a struggling Memphis team.
Finally, we'll touch on Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200), who is priced moderately well against the Nuggets in what should be a hotly contested brawl inside. Thirty-two percent usage and over 1.5 FPPM is hard to turn away from, and I think he's a perfectly reasonable option tonight.
EXPECTED CHALK
I already mentioned DeMar DeRozan ($8,100), but he deserves another call as I look through the 7-8k options this evening.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL ($8,100) vs. MIN
Just like Luka, Porzingis couldn't be in a better spot versus Minnesota at home. Karl-Anthony Towns is still a couple of games away, so rostering the opposing center against the T-Wolves has been a sound investment all year long. As I've said many times before, the PF designation allows you to essentially get two centers into your FanDuel lineup despite the single-center opening.
John Wall, HOU ($7,400) @ CHA
Wall is a more prudent option than Victor Oladipo against Charlotte, as I think Oladipo will get a lot of interference from Gordon Hayward ($7,600, and also not a bad call). Wall's minutes are now above 30 minutes regularly.
Andre Drummond, CLE ($7,200) @ PHO
DeMarcus Cousins will be very popular tonight, but Drummond is in an intriguing spot. Right off the bat, I'll admit that I don't have the proper metric handy to justify the endorsement, but I distinctly remember a game last season where Drummond picked Deandre Ayton apart and absolutely crushed with a huge total. Drummond was a Piston then, but the memory compels me to take a chance on him in the valuable center position.
Kelly Oubre, GSW ($6,700) @ SAS
With LaMarcus Aldridge out, the Warriors find themselves in a spot where their small-ball lineup will work perfectly. Despite a regression in their second game against Dallas, I still think the Warriors will continue to lean on Oubre, which is something they should have been doing all along. I think it will be tough to differentiate potential between Andrew Wiggins ($6,600) and Oubre, and while I like them both, the two Kansas products should not be stacked.
Also consider: Dejounte Murray, SAS ($7,100) vs. GSW
VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and under)
As usual, refer to the injury section for other ideal value plays. DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) doesn't need his own paragraph. Until his price rises above $7,500 or Wood returns, he is one of the chalkiest players you'll find.
Hamidou Diallo, OKC ($6,200) @ LAL
With Theo Maledon likely out tonight, Diallo should see a lot of run, and he may even creep into the starting lineup again. If not, he'll still register around 30 minutes with the second unit. With the potential to eclipse 30 FDFP on a nightly basis, his salary is ideally placed to beat 5x value.
Chris Boucher, TOR ($5,900) @ MEM
Boucher is often at the mercy of Nick Nurse's whims, but I expect him to see anywhere from 28-33 minutes against the Grizzlies despite the blowout potential. Boucher sticks around during lopsided games in either direction, and his tremendous upside makes him a nightly consideration.
Anthony Edwards, MIN ($5,800) @ DAL
As a newly minted member of the starting lineup, Edwards is on the brink of breaking out in a big way. Right about now, his push is going to begin in the hunt for Rookie of the Year honors, and I want to get in on the value when it happens. This game could get out of hand, but that only enhances an endorsement for the Georgia standout, as the T-Wolves will give him all the minutes he can handle.
Coby White, CHI ($5,600) vs. WAS
I want multiple pieces of this fast-paced game, and White becomes a chalky value play if Westbrook sits. He sees 27-32 minutes on a regular basis, and although his floor rests around 25 FDFP, a few assists or steals can get him above 30 FDFP, which is a much better projection for him tonight.
We'll need a little more value help to get our spend-up options. Here are a few more plays from the bargain bin:
SF Juan Toscano-Anderson, GS ($5,300)
SF Jae'Sean Tate, HOU ($5,200)
SF Kenrich Williams, OKC ($4,400)
SG Tomas Satoransky, CHI ($3,900)
