FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

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Published on February 11, 2021

We slow down to a five-game slate that kicks off at 4:30 p,m on Thursday. Let's begin with the Vegas numbers as per usual.

SLATE OVERVIEW

TOR @ BOS (-3.5) O/U: 222.5

MIA @ HOU (+3.5) O/U: 219.5

IND @ DET (+3.5) O/U: 218.5

PHI @ POR (+5.5) O/U: 229.5

ORL @ GSW (-5.5) O/U: 224.5

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Games/Teams to Target in BOLD

Games/Teams to Fade in ITALICS

Back-to-back teams: Pacers, Raptors

INJURIES

Toronto: OG Anunoby (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

Anunoby was upgraded to questionable yesterday but still did not play. He may return to action tonight, but Norman Powell ($6,800) will start in his place if he can't go.

Boston: Marcus Smart (calf) - OUT

The Celtics have been dealing with this absence for a while now. Depending on the matchup, the team has either started Carsen Edwards or chosen a two-tower approach with Tristan Thompson ($4,800) and Daniel Theis ($4,900) in Smart's absence. Edwards is an unwise call and the two big men aren't a great way to go either, so if you want to go with Boston, stick to the usual high-production targets.

Miami: Goran Dragic (ankle) - OUT

Kendrick Nunn ($5,000) should continue to start at point guard, but Tyler Herro ($5,800) will still see plenty of minutes and has an outside shot at starting, as well.

Houston: Christian Wood (ankle) - OUT

DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) hasn't been the value-buster we expected over the past couple of games, as his shooting stroke has escaped him. He'll still see a lot of minutes, however.

Orlando: Aaron Gordon (ankle) - OUT

Orlando: Evan Fournier (back) - QUESTIONABLE

Orlando: Cole Anthony (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE

Although there is some value to be had with these absences, Nikola Vucevic ($9,800) is the only Magic player I have a serious interest in. Of the remaining players, Frank Mason ($4,200) stands out as someone who could benefit the most with an Anthony absence, and James Ennis ($4,200) would also be worthwhile.

Philadelphia: Shake Milton (ankle) - DOUBTFUL

Seth Curry ($4,100) will likely be the best value in Milton's absence.

ELITE PLAYERS

The slate is a little slim with elites tonight, but there are still some spend-up decisions to make. We have only three guys above $10K, beginning with Joel Embiid ($10,800). Surprisingly, there's a lot of really cheap value on the slate tonight, so I think the potential for catching three elites is a real possibility.

This is an excellent spot for Embiid against Portland, as we want opposing players against the Trail Blazers whenever they are on the slate. Embiid's usage is monstrous, and if you wish to build your core around this guaranteed value, you won't get any complaints from me. As I said previously, Nikola Vucevic ($9,800) is right underneath him at center and could save you $1K, but I don't think Vucevic can make the price difference worth your while. Embiid is a pure cash elite, and I would lean more to Vucevic in tournaments.

Also, in the $10K range, we have Damian Lillard ($10,000) and Stephen Curry ($10,500). Stacking these two at point guard will also be a massively popular play, although it is laden with more variance. Both guys are shot-dependent, and while they can reward you with 70 FP upside, they can also grossly underperform. Regarding positional scarcity, point guard is probably the second-best pool tonight, so it could be worthwhile to go with one, but my optimal lineup won't involve a stack of these two guards. Of the two, I favor Lillard.

Moving down, arguments can be made for Pascal Siakam ($9,600) on a back-to-back, but there's also credence to going back with Domantas Sabonis ($9,300) after a night where we thought he would top the slate. Jayson Tatum ($9,500) might very well be the best PF performer at this level, however. Bam Adebayo rounds out the high-priced-power-forwards pool at $9,000. All of these guys are reasonable, but I think Tatum stands above the rest.

On such a slim slate, I can see locking in a high-priced shooting guard with Fred VanVleet ($9,300), although I think that price is a little over-inflated. That's it for the guys above $9K.

EXPECTED CHALK

Ben Simmons, PHI ($8,800) @ POR

Simmons comes in as the No. 2 performer for the Sixers tonight, and those who fade Embiid could find themselves here to get a piece of this game. You always miss Simmons' multi-positional eligibility on FanDuel, but I like him more as a point guard option because most FanDuel builds are profitable with a small forward spend-down approach (although that may not be the case tonight). His numbers have bounced around a bit, but I expect a nice stat line against a weak Portland defense.

Jimmy Butler, MIA ($8,400) @ HOU

Butler's numbers are brilliant since emerging from COVID-19 protocols. He's averaging 21 points, eight assists and eight rebounds over the past six games, and you can't ask for a more reliable floor at small forward. Houston's defense leaves a lot to be desired, and they are remarkably soft against wing players, although Jae'Sean Tate has added some strong defensive play in recent games.

Jerami Grant, DET ($8,200) vs. IND

For the Pistons, it's basically Jerami Grant and everybody else. I approve of going to the well with Grant against the Pacers, who are on a back-to-back. He's coming off two straight 32-point performances, and all signs point towards more high-floor evenings.

Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,800) @ POR

I'm obviously hammering this matchup, and while Harris isn't the least-expensive way to go for Philly, he has a very stable floor and can also reward you with big upside games on occasion. Again, this is an ideal situation for the Sixers, and I expect 35 FDFP at the bare minimum for Harris tonight.

Also consider: Mason Plumlee, DET ($7,000) @ IND, John Wall, HOU (if he plays, $7,700) vs. MIA

VALUE PLAYS

Chris Boucher, TOR ($6,400) @ BOS

The great thing about Boucher in back-to-backs is that we rarely see him play north of 30 minutes. He shows up fresh more often than his elite counterparts, but he inflicts severe damage when he's on the floor. He averages 1.24 FDFP per minute so far this season and can often get you more than that. As usual, he'll be extremely popular, so if you want to be unique, I like a pivot to Kelly Oubre ($6,500) at a very similar salary level.

Terrence Ross, ORL ($5,200) @ GSW

With so much uncertainty on the Magic roster, Ross has a good chance of beating value at this price. I still like James Ennis ($4,200) more for far less, but Ross will work his way into the rotation tonight and hopefully get his shot humming.

Doug McDermott, IND ($4,900) @ DET

McDermott seems like he's coming out of left field, but he saw only 20 minutes with the second unit, which is his lowest minutes total in two weeks. As a result, he should be one of the freshest performers available for Indiana, and with a chance for a runaway game, I also like his garbage-time potential.

Dennis Smith, DET ($3,500) vs. IND

Smith debuts with the Pistons tonight, and we should view this as an audition for work in the second unit. This pick is chock-full of variance, but it's one of the better punt plays we've seen in weeks. Obviously, we need to make sure that he'll be in the rotation, but he only needs 16 FDFP to break 5x value. He is tough to late-swap because of the low price, but he can really open up some possibilities for the rest of your roster.

Also consider: T.J. McConnell, IND ($5,200), @ DET

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.