FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Friday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

It's Friday, which means we're set for a robust menu of hardwood action with 10 games. There should be multiple appealing DFS environments to pluck players from for our tournament and cash game lineups, as three matchups already have projected totals north of 230 points (detailed below) while another two as of early Friday morning are in the high 220s. There's also a large contingent of elite players taking the floor, giving the pool plenty of depth despite some big names populating the injury report. This could well be a multiple-lineup night, as there are a number of very affordable salaries on productive players that allow you to comfortably fit in a couple top-shelf options.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals: 

Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics (Projected total: 234.5 points)

The Kings are allowing a Western Conference-high 120.0 points per game and NBA-high 49.1 percent shooting while playing at a top-10 pace (103.8 possessions per contest), which is the ideal recipe for the opposition to feast. The Celtics have actually had their share of defensive issues at times as well this season, although the recent return of Marcus Smart is very likely to help shore that up over time. Boston is allowing 111.3 points per game and ranks in the bottom half of the league with 46.8 percent shooting allowed overall, but the 113.9 points per game they're scoring at TD Garden is a formidable figure that's nearly matched by the 113.7 points per road contest for Sacramento. 

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (Projected total: 234.0 points) 

The Trail Blazers will be playing their third game in four nights, so it remains to be seen how much spring they have in their collective step. Nevertheless, this matchup rightfully promises high offensive expectations considering the elite scorers on either side and the fact these squads combined for 239 points the first time they met this season. Portland also comes in allowing 115.0 points per game and scoring nearly as much (114.8 PPG), while the Mavs are at 111.3 points per game surrendered and 111.4 for. Each side ranks in the bottom-half of the league in pace, but that may not be much of a hindrance to points being scored with the likes of Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard. 

Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns (Projected total: 231.0 points) 

This could be one of the more intriguing games of the night considering the Timberwolves have been playing like a completely different team since the All-Star break and just pulled off a 123-119 upset of the Suns Thursday night. Minnesota is averaging an impressive 122.8 points per game in its first five second-half games, a span that also includes wins over the Pelicans and Trail Blazers. The T-Wolves are also yielding 119.9 points per road game and the Suns are scoring 115.6 per home game, so the scoreboard could be busy again after the clubs combined for 242 points Thursday. Key to Minnesota's surge has been the play of first overall pick Anthony Edwards, who Phoenix had no answer for in Thursday's contest as he posted a career-high 42 points.   

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Kyrie Irving, BKN (groin)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Irving is expected to be back in action without restrictions after missing Wednesday's game versus the Pacers.

Kevin Durant, BKN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Durant's ongoing absence should continue affording Jeff Green plenty of minutes and will continue to significantly boost the usage of James Harden and Kyrie Irving.

Stephen Curry, GSW (back)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Curry's expected absence Friday - coupled with that of Kelly Oubre - will leave plenty on the plates of Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, while Brad Wanamaker and Jordan Poole are both candidates to see extra time at point guard.  

John Wall, HOU (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If Wall is able to play for the first time in the second half of the season, Kevin Porter would presumably head back to the bench. 

DeMar DeRozan, SA (personal)/ Status: OUT 

DeRozan's ongoing absence Friday should continue to give the likes of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl plenty of extra opportunities. 

Kelly Oubre, GSW (foot)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Oubre's projected absence sets up the likelihood Kent Bazemore or Damion Lee receive a spot start at small forward. 

Other notable injuries: 

D'Angelo Russell, MIN (quadriceps)/ Status: OUT 

Malik Beasley, MIN (suspension)/ Status: OUT 

Michael Carter-Williams, ORL (illness)/ Status: GTD 

Terrence Ross, ORL (knee)/ Status: GTD 

Marvin Bagley, SAC (hand)/ Status: OUT 

Tristan Thompson, BOS (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Hamidou Diallo, DET (groin)/ Status: OUT 

Eric Gordon, HOU (groin)/ Status: OUT 

David Nwaba, HOU (wrist)/ Status: OUT 

Cole Anthony, ORL (ribs)/ Status: OUT 

LaMarcus Aldridge, SA (team decision)/ Status: OUT 

Blake Griffin, BKN (team decision)/ Status: OUT 

Kevin Love, CLE (calf)/ Status: DOUBTFUL 

Ben McLemore, HOU (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Andre Drummond, CLE (team decision)/ Status: OUT 

Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL (personal)/ Status: OUT 

James Ennis, ORL (calf)/ Status: GTD 

James Wiseman, GSW (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT

Elite Players

Despite there being 20 teams in action, we have a relatively modest five players with five-figure salaries on the slate: James Harden ($11,300), Nikola Jokic ($11,000), Jimmy Butler ($10,600), Luka Doncic ($10,400) and Damian Lillard ($10.300). 

From that group, Harden continues to be a premium play each time he's on the floor without Kevin Durant and he's now delivered four tallies over 60 - including two over 70 - over the last seven games while the positional matchup against the Magic on Friday is excellent. Jokic could be worth every penny of his salary versus a Bulls' team destroyed by centers all season, while Doncic is also in a favorable spot against what could be a tired Trail Blazers' team playing its third game in four nights - one Luka already put up 60.9 FD points against back on Feb. 14. Butler and Lillard are always under consideration, but each may find it difficult outpacing their lofty salaries.  

There are also several players with salaries in the high four-figures that have the ability to deliver elite scores, including Nikola Vucevic ($9,700), Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600), Domantas Sabonis ($9,300), De'Aaron Fox ($9,200), Kyrie Irving ($9,100) and Jayson Tatum ($8,900). 

From that group, Vucevic and Towns have been incredibly reliable all season when healthy despite the generally poor state of their squads, and each should carry a major role again Friday. Vucevic's salary has also notably gone down $300, while KAT's has also ticked down $100 despite his tally of 64 FD points against the same Suns squad he'll face tonight. Sabonis has seen some fluctuation in his production recently, but has recorded 62.6 and 58.7 FD points in two of his last three, and all three of Fox, Irving and Tatum could well deliver strong returns on their respective salaries given their matchups and/or expected game environments.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the names detailed in the Elite Players section, other likely chalk plays include Anthony Edwards and his very reasonable $7,100 salary despite his excellent second-half play thus far and 58.9 FD points versus Phoenix on Thursday. The Bulls' Zach LaVine and both the Rockets' Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo should also be popular, especially if John Wall misses another contest. The Suns' Devin Booker should see plenty of clicks on his name as well after lighting up the Timberwolves for the second time this season Thursday and getting another crack at them Friday. The remaining healthy members of the Spurs cited earlier in DeRozan's injury entry should also find themselves on plenty of rosters as strong mid-tier and value plays. Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker could also draw lots of clicks considering their highly favorable matchup against a Kings' team that's been a defensive sieve all season. The Raptors' Norman Powell also sets up very well after going off for a career-high 43 points Wednesday against the Pistons and scoring over 40 FD points in three of his last four.

Key Values  

Chris Paul, PHO vs. MIN ($6,900) 

Paul has scored 40.1 and 42.9 FD points in his last two, the latter total coming Thursday against the same Timberwolves he'll face tonight. Minnesota has allowed the ninth-most FD points per game to point guards (47.0) on the season, including the eighth most over the last five contests  (53.5) . Paul and his teammates will naturally be out to avenge their rare home loss, and it's worth noting the veteran guard also amassed 39.7 FD points against the T-Wolves the first time he saw them on Feb. 28. Minnesota is also allowing the third-highest offensive efficiency to PGs (29.3 percent), strengthening Paul's case even further and his sub-$7K salary.

Evan Fournier, ORL vs. BKN ($6,400)

Fournier is another guard sporting a very affordable salary relative to upside, as the veteran sharpshooter just racked up 38.2 FD points against a tough Knicks defense in his return from a four-game absence Thursday. Fournier has already delivered over 5x his current salary in 12 of 22 games this season and should see a few extra possessions against the fast-paced Nets, which are allowing the third-most FD points per game to players with shooting guard designations over the last 10 games  (59.2) and which have surrendered 48.5 percent shooting - including 37.4 percent from distance - on the road.

Jakob Poeltl, SA at CLE ($5,600)

Poeltl is one of several Spurs who should continue benefiting from the absence of DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, especially considering the big man is averaging 37.4 FD points per 36 minutes without his two teammates on the floor. That figure is partly comprised of the 42.4 and 38.7 FD points Poeltl has managed in favorable matchups against the Pistons and Bulls in his last two games, and he'll be in a similarly advantageous position Friday. The Cavaliers are ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency allowed to centers (31.6 percent), as well as in the paint (57.1 percent). The latter figure is particularly relevant when considering Poeltl is scoring 87.8 percent of his points in that area of the floor. It's also worth noting Cleveland has given up the second-most FD points per game to centers in the last five contests (49.0), while 10 of the 12 instances in which Poeltl has delivered over a 5x return on his current salary have come within the last 16 games.

Other value plays to consider: Draymond Green, GSW at MEM ($6,600); Jamal Murray, DEN vs. CHI ($6,500); Michael Porter, DEN vs. CHI ($6,500); Kemba Walker, BOS vs. SAC ($6,400); Caris LeVert, IND at MIA ($5,600); Will Barton, DEN vs. CHI ($5,600); Kelly Olynyk, MIA vs. IND ($5,500); Darius Garland, CLE vs. SA ($5,500); Larry Nance, CLE vs. SA ($5,300); Jordan Clarkson, UTA at TOR ($5,200); Andrew Wiggins, GS at MEM ($5,200); Derrick White, SA at CLE ($4,800); Rudy Gay, SA at CLE ($4,800) 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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