FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Sunday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

Although it's a busy day Sunday in the NBA, the main slate on FanDuel covers six night games beginning at 7 p.m. ET. Despite the modestly-sized schedule, there are a pair of intriguing games that could generate fruitful DFS environments. There is also one extremely prominent addition to the injury report, as LeBron James suffered a high-ankle sprain Saturday against the Hawks and is now out indefinitely. That absence, coupled with Anthony Davis' issue, has significantly dampened the offensive prospects for a Lakers-Suns matchup that otherwise would have likely projected a total in the high 220s.

Slate Overview

Here's a closer look at the three games with the highest projected totals: 

Washington Wizards at Brooklyn Nets (Projected total: 245.5 points)

These two squads have combined for 245 and 295 points in their first two meetings this season, which both were surprisingly Washington wins. The Wizards clearly have cracked the code of the Nets' defensive schemes to an extent, and there's every reason to believe another offensive fireworks display could develop Sunday. Washington is allowing an NBA-high 120.2 points per game and is playing at an NBA-high 108.0 possessions per contest. Meanwhile, no team is scoring more than Brooklyn's 120.4 points per game and Washington isn't too far behind at 115.2. Finally, consider the Nets aren't that much better defensively on paper than their Sunday opponent with Steve Nash's squad allowing an elevated 115.4 points per game. 

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (Projected total: 228.5 points) 

Both squads producing a combined 239 and 244 points in their first two meetings this season, so this total implies there will be a bit more effective defense on either side. However, neither Luka Doncic nor Damian Lillard has had any trouble putting up points against each other's teams, with the two combining for 69 points in Friday's first installment of this two-game set in Portland. The Mavericks are allowing 111.5 points per road contest while the Trail Blazers are yielding 114.4 per home game. Portland also gives up the fourth-highest shooting percentage (47.8) and saw CJ McCollum rediscover his stroke against Dallas with 32 points on 11-for-23 shooting on Friday after scuffling his first two appearances following an extended injury absence. 

Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons (Projected total: 217.5 points) 

This is a big drop in projected total from the Mavs-Blazers game, but that's the way the Sunday night slate shapes up. The Bulls are allowing the seventh-most points per game (114.5), including the sixth most (116.4) per road contest. The Pistons sports a respectable 111.1 points against per game overall, but they also surrender the fifth-highest shooting percentage (47.8). It's also worth noting Chicago is playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the league (104.9 possessions per contest), which should speed things up for a more deliberate Detroit side (101.5 possessions per home game).

Injury Situations to Monitor  

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Joel Embiid, PHI (knee)/ Status: OUT 

Embiid's ongoing absence will continue to afford Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard the playing time at center while keeping the usage rates of the remaining healthy members of the starting five elevated.

LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

James' absence naturally exacerbates a difficult situation for a Lakers squad already missing Anthony Davis, with the two absent superstars leaving the likes of Dennis Schroder, Markieff Morris, Montrezl Harrell and Kyle Kuzma as the likeliest beneficiaries in terms of extra usage.

Kevin Durant, BKN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Durant's ongoing absence is partly mitigated by the expected team debut of Blake Griffin, who figures to split up Durant's power forward minutes with Jeff Green on Sunday. The usage rates of both James Harden and Kyrie Irving should also remain spiked with Durant out. 

Ben Simmons, PHI (knee)/ Status: GTD 

Simmons was a late scratch with knee soreness Saturday against the Kings, which led to a spot start for Shake Milton who responded with a 28-point performance. Milton would be line for another start should Simmons sit out again Sunday, while Tobias Harris - who posted a 29-point, 11-rebound double-double Saturday - would once again be in for extremely elevated usage. 

Blake Griffin, BKN (knee)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Griffin is expected to make his team debut Sunday and will likely be on some sort of minutes restriction. The veteran will split time at power forward with Jeff Green, who's probable with a shoulder injury.

Seth Curry, PHI (ankle)/ Status: OUT 

With Curry out, Matisse Thybulle could be in line for another spot start as was the case against the Kings on Saturday.   

Other notable injuries: 

Anthony Davis, LAL (calf)/ Status: OUT 

Derrick Rose, NYK (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Kevin Love, CLE (calf)/ Status: OUT 

Immanuel Quickley NYK (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Elfrid Payton, NYK (hamstring)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Mitchell Robinson, NYK (hand)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Hamidou Diallo, DET (groin)/ Status: OUT 

Marc Gasol, LAL (conditioning)/ Status: GTD 

Andre Drummond, CLE (team decision)/ Status: OUT 

Jeff Green, BKN (shoulder)/ Status: PROBABLE 

Davis Bertans, WAS (calf)/ Status: OUT 

JaVale McGee, CLE (illness)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE

Elite Players

There are a total of six players with five-figure salaries Sunday evening, but two - Joel Embiid and LeBron James - are out. The remaining healthy quartet consists of James Harden ($11,300), Russell Westbrook ($11,100), Luka Doncic ($10,800) and Damian Lillard ($10,000).   

All four face excellent matchups and game environments, arguably making each worthy of the investment required to roster them. Harden has actually yet to face Washington this season, but Westbrook has posted 49.0 and 71.0 FD points in his two previous meetings with Brooklyn. Meanwhile, Doncic and Lillard have both thrived in the first two Mavericks-Trail Blazers battles, and Sunday shapes up as another narrow, high-scoring game between the clubs.

There are also several players with salaries in the high four-figures that have the ability to deliver elite scores, including Julius Randle ($9,800), Bradley Beal ($9,600), Kyrie Irving ($9,100), Zach LaVine ($8,700) and Tobias Harris ($8,300). 

Randle does draw a tough matchup on paper, but the Sixers are a bit of a more penetrable frontcourt without Embiid and Randle managed a solid 47.0 FD points against Philly two games ago. Beal, like Westbrook, is in an excellent position against the fast-paced and defensively challenged Nets while the same is true for Irving at $500 less in salary against Beal's Wizards. LaVine lit up the Pistons for 54.5 FD points last time he faced them, while Harris, who already posted 49.2 FD points against New York two games ago, could be in for another massive usage night if Simmons joins Embiid on the list of unavailable players.

Expected Chalk

In addition to the names just detailed in the Elite Players section, other likely chalk plays include the Raptors' backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet, as well as Pascal Siakam and Norman Powell in a strong matchup against the Cavaliers; CJ McCollum facing a Mavericks team he lit up on Friday; the Sixers' Shake Milton, Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard, after all three performed well against the Kings on Saturday in the absences of Simmons and Embiid; and Dennis Schroder, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris and Montrezl Harrell - along with other complementary Lakers to a lesser extent - without James and Davis.

Key Values  

Dennis Schroder, LAL at PHO ($6,100) 

As just alluded to, Schroder is one of the remaining healthy members of the Lakers' starting five who is going to have no choice but step up with both of the team's superstars out. He checks into Sunday's contest with some momentum, having scored 30.4 to 45.7 FD points in four of his last six games while averaging 31.7 over his last 10 overall. Schroder is also boasting a 26.5 percent usage rate and averaging 38.6 FD points per 36 minutes with both his teammates off the floor this season, and he produced 29.6 FD points against the Suns on Mar. 2. While Schroder's efficiency is always a concern, it takes more of a back seat when considering he should be putting up more than enough shots and also remain involved in other ways to help deliver a strong return on salary.

Larry Nance, CLE vs. TOR ($5,300)

Nance has begun ramping it up after a quiet first two games back from a broken finger, averaging 34.0 FD points in his last three contests - all of them starts. Kevin Love will remain out with his calf injury Sunday, affording Nance a run with the first unit against a Raptors squad that allows the eight-highest offensive efficiency to power forwards (26.3 percent) and the eighth-most FD points per game to the position on the campaign (46.0). Toronto also checks in ranked in the bottom 10 in shooting allowed to power forwards (48.0 percent) while Nance is shooting an impressive 48.9 percent, including a career-best 36.7 percent from downtown on a career-high 3.3 three-point attempts per contest.

Alec Burks, NY vs. PHI ($4,900)

Burks may have taken hold of the starting shooting guard role for the time being after posting 38.0 FD points across 33 minutes in Thursday's win over the Magic, a game in which the displaced Reggie Bullock also performed well off the bench with 20 points. That type of production is likely to encourage coach Tom Thibodeau to maintain the same arrangement Sunday, but Burks is a solid play at his current salary even if he were to revert back to his high-volume second-unit role. The veteran has already delivered over 5x his current salary in 13 games this season, with only two of those starting assignments. What's more, one of those contests came against the same Sixers squad he'll see Sunday, with Burks achieving his second-best fantasy point tally of the season (36.5) on Dec. 26.

Other value plays to consider: Thaddeus Young, CHI at DET ($6,600); Jarrett Allen, CLE vs. TOR ($6,300); Mason Plumlee, DET at CHI ($6,000); Kyle Kuzma, LAL at PHO ($5,900); Lauri Markkanen, CHI at DET ($5,600); Darius Garland, CLE vs. TOR ($5,500); Dwight Howard, PHI at NY ($5,400); Tim Hardaway, DAL at POR ($4,200); Tony Bradley, PHI at NY ($3,700)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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