This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
While I'm eagerly awaiting one of my favorite holidays of the entire year -- the NFL Draft -- there's still plenty of NBA action taking place in the meantime. Wednesday's slate boasts a total of 10 games, but just seven were available for prop-bet purposes as of this writing, so the pickings were once again pretty slim.
Points Props
It's cheating a bit, but with so much uncertainty at this point in the NBA season, targeting certain games as opposed to spreading out the respective props feels like the prudent approach. As as a result, I'm sticking with two games -- CLE/ORL and SA/MIA.
I wasn't really thrilled with the total PRA total, but I think as a standalone Isaac Okoro over 10.5 points (-117) is definitely in the realm of possibility. The most recent No. 5 overall pick has approached this point total in each of the last two games with Collin Sexton (concussion) sidelined, and I suspect it'll continue against an Orlando defense that allows the sixth-most points to opposing shooting guards. The Magic also allow a ton of rebounds to opposing backcourts hence the PRA consideration, but DraftKings had the rebound/assist total priced up to a point where there's little value.
On the flip side, Chuma Okeke over 1.5 made threes (+146) is really a solid deal considering the odds. Long-time readers know I have a love-hate relationship with three-point props, but we've been more in the love range recently. Okeke is shooting 34 percent from deep this season, and more recently is averaging five three-ball attempts per game over the last five contests. The Cavs allow the second-highest three percentage to opposing power forwards in the league, so while this figures to be a low-scoring affair, I think Okeke will get just enough opportunities for the over to be in play.
Moving over to MIA/SA, it's become a near automatic to target the under point total for the opposing point guard going against the Heat, much in the same way my colleague Alex Barutha exclusively corners the market on the under for opposing centers' rebound totals against Steven Adams. Dejounte Murray scored just 11 points when these two teams battled last week, so yeah, I think under 15.5 points (-117) makes plenty of sense. That game was basically over by halftime so it's possible the Spurs will keep things more competitive against a reeling Miami squad this time around, but prior to Monday, Murray had six straight games with 14 or fewer points. All that's to say, I feel confident enough taking the under.
Along the same lines, look at Trevor Ariza under 9.5 points (-113). Ariza had just three points in last week's aforementioned game and attempted just five shots. Remember, the game got out of hand early, but despite San Antonio's struggles, their defense actually allows the fewest three-point attempts to opposing power forwards in the entire league, and that's something Ariza does exclusively. There should be no reason the Spurs' defensive philosophy changes if the game does stay competitive.
Rebounds/Assists Props
I mentioned this in Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday Edition, so I won't spend too much additional time on it. Under 19.5 PRA Daniel Theis (-127) is well in play, mainly because of the Knicks' shockingly stout defense. Unless the veteran big man can suddenly capitalize off his breakout against the Heat on Monday, I think this is a safe bet to hit.
Best Bets
- Dejounte Murray under 15.5 points (-117)
- Daniel Theis under 19.5 points+rebounds+assists (-127)
- Chuma Okeke over 1.5 made threes (+145)
