With a wild offseason reshaping the NBA landscape, fantasy basketball draft season is officially here. Navigating the draft board effectively means knowing which big-name stars are overvalued busts and which undervalued sleepers to target in the later rounds. Whether you are evaluating nine-category leagues, head-to-head points formats, or dynasty setups, finding the right return on Yahoo ADP is the ultimate cheat sheet to dominating your league. Below, we break down key fantasy basketball player projections, highlighting veterans like LeBron James and Joel Embiid to fade, while uncovering high-upside waiver and draft targets like Josh Hart to anchor your roster.

Fantasy Basketball Sleepers & Busts for 9-Cat Drafts

Overvalued Busts

Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic

The Magic made moves around the edges this offseason, so Banchero's role should remain the same. After the addition of Desmond Bane prior to last season, Banchero saw his usage fall to 27.6%, which was six percentage points lower than the season prior. It was still a hefty mark, though, and it enabled him to average 22.2 points per game. That was in addition to his averages of 8.4 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.2 three-pointers.

The problem with Banchero for category leagues is his lack of efficiency and his propensity for turning the ball over. He has averaged at least 3.0 turnovers in each of the last three seasons. For his career, he has only shot 44.9% from the field and 74.3% from the free-throw line. He also doesn't provide much defensively, putting up 0.8 steals and 0.6 blocks a night for his career. His role as the leader of the Magic and the notoriety that comes with being a former top pick in the draft has contributed to him having an ADP of 34, but it will be difficult for him to justify that in category leagues.

LeBron James, Philadelphia 76ers

James was one of the big names to change teams during the offseason, leaving the Lakers to return to the Eastern Conference with the 76ers. The team now has championship aspirations with James and Jaylen Brown joining Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe. Despite turning 41 years old during last season, the seemingly ageless wonder averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 1.2 steals. On the downside, that scoring mark was the lowest average of his career. He shot just 73.7% from the free-throw line and was limited to 60 games because of injuries.

The 76ers don't need James to do the heavy lifting for them to be successful during the regular season. That can be handled by Brown and Maxey. The 21-year-old Edgecombe was also a workhorse last season, averaging 35 minutes over 75 games. James turns 42 years old in December and is now on a team that won't need to rely on him as much as the Lakers did. In addition to a lower usage rate and fewer minutes, the 76ers could be very cautious with James, giving him rest days or sitting him out with any kind of nagging injury. There's just too much risk that comes with selecting him at his current ADP of 38.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

It was another injury-plagued season for Embiid, who only appeared in 38 games. He was dominant offensively when he was on the floor, averaging 26.9 points and shooting 48.9% from the field. However, he averaged a career-low 7.7 rebounds despite still playing 32 minutes a game. His defensive production also continued to slip, posting a modest 1.2 blocks a game. Prior to the 2024-25 campaign, Embiid had three straight seasons in which he averaged at least 1.5 blocks.

Embiid has played fewer than 40 games in each of the last three seasons. He has never appeared in more than 68 games in a season during his career. Given his injury history and him turning 32 years old in March, there's no reason to believe that the 76ers will push him to play lot. Like with James, their goal is to have Embiid healthy when the playoffs roll around. Embiid's ADP is 51, which is too high for a player who it wouldn't be a surprise to see play fewer than 50 games.

Undervalued Sleepers

Josh Hart, New York Knicks

Hart began last season coming off the bench for the Knicks. They tried using a bigger starting lineup at times, playing Mitchell Robinson alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. Hart eventually regained his starting role and provided valuable production for fantasy managers. Over his 52 starts, he averaged 12.6 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.6 three-pointers, while shooting 51.5% from the field.

Robinson is now a member of the Celtics. The Knicks brought in Andre Drummond to replace him, but he's not a threat to start games alongside Towns. Outside of Drummond replacing Robinson, the Knicks return mostly the same team that won the championship last year. Hart should start and play a lot, making him a potential value at his current ADP of 96.

Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves will look very different this season. Gone are Naz Reid and Julius Randle. New additions include LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga. Ball is a proven point guard who could help them push the pace more, but it's fair to question what Kuminga actually brings to the team. He signed a two-year, $13 million contract with the team after splitting last season between the Warriors and Hawks. He failed to establish himself with Golden State, never really contributing much outside of the scoring column. Asking him to replace a reliable player like Reid might be a tall order.

McDaniels is already coming off the best season of his career, averaging 14.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.4 three-pointers. He made 41.2% of his attempts from behind the arc, which helped him shoot 51.5% from the field. He is a versatile defender who should be key for Minnesota as they deploy more small lineups. Look for him to have a high floor for a player who has a current ADP of 89.

Cason Wallace, Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder made some changes around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe are no longer in the fold, leaving more opportunities for players like Ajay Mitchell, Jared McCain and Wallace. In 27 minutes per game last season, Wallace averaged 8.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.3 three-pointers. It's the steals that stand out with him, considering Wallace also averaged 1.8 steals during the 2024-25 season.

Wallace only had a 14.5% usage rate last year, and even if he plays more, that number likely won't increase significantly. However, the extra minutes could lead him to helping fantasy managers dominate their leagues in steals. He is also a good three-point shooter, making 37.4% of his attempts from behind the arc for his career. If more minutes can help him provide 1.5 three-pointers and 2.0 steals per game at his current ADP of 118, he could end up being a significant bargain.