LeBron James is going to Philadelphia. Say it out loud, and it still sounds like something assembled in NBA 2K: Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, VJ Edgecombe, and now the most decorated player of his generation, all in one building. For the league, it's the kind of superteam that sells League Pass subscriptions and reorders the Eastern Conference. For anyone drafting a fantasy team this fall, it's something closer to a nightmare.
One basketball, five mouths to feed. Nearly everything we learned about these players last season — the usage, the minutes, the counting stats that made them draftable — is now suspect. So let's work the case one suspect at a time.
(Follow me on X at @BaruthaAlex if you're drafting this fall — I cover all the sleepers, busts and breakouts you need to win your league.)
Tyrese Maxey
Maxey is coming off the best season of his career: fifth in per-game eight-cat value, 28/4/7 with 1.9 steals across 38 minutes a night. That's a first-round line. But he produced it as Philadelphia's unquestioned first option, and that role — along with, quite possibly, those minutes — just walked out the door.
We don't have to guess at what happens next, because we already have the receipts. In 357 minutes last season with Edgecombe, Embiid and Paul George sharing the floor, Maxey's usage rate fell seven percent. Prorated to 36 minutes, that grouping produced a 19/4/6 line with 0.8 steals — long way from first-round value. Layer in the fact that 38 minutes a night for three straight years was never sustainable, and that a suddenly loaded roster gives Philadelphia no reason to keep pushing it, and the direction is obvious: minutes down, usage down.
The strides he's made defensively still matter — they give him a great floor. But a slide back toward third-round value is very much in play, and I'm more frightened of that downside than I am seduced by the upside.
LeBron James
James finished 38th in eight-cat last year, a 21/6/7 line with 1.2 steals. But it also marked a fourth consecutive season of declining minutes, and he'll play this year at 41 years old.
We've already watched the shared-usage version of him. Alongside Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, LeBron's usage dropped eight percent, good for a per-36 line of 20/6/6 with 1.6 steals. In Philadelphia, on plenty of nights, he'll be a glorified fourth option. Factor in the near-certainty of maintenance rest at his age, and the picture only dims further. I'm not spending a pick on him before the fifth round, and even that may prove optimistic.
Jaylen Brown
Brown is fresh off a career year of his own: 29th in eight-cat at 29/7/5. Don't anchor to it. Since his 2019-20 breakout, Brown's median eight-cat finish is 49th. Last season was the ceiling, not the baseline.
Here's the encouraging part. Brown's minutes have been remarkably stable — never below 33.5, never above 35.9 since that breakout — and we have years of film on him thriving as a secondary option rather than a primary one. His usage will take a hit in this configuration, but the floor of his role is firmer than almost anyone else's on the roster. I have him in the 50s-to-60s range, and I'm comfortable there.
Joel Embiid
When Embiid plays, he is still elite: 18th in per-game value last season at 27/8/4 with 1.2 blocks, and he has never once ranked below 23rd per game in his career. But "when he plays" has become the entire question. Embiid hasn't cleared 39 games in three straight seasons. His rebounding and rim protection have quietly slipped. And now, for the first time, he's surrounded by enough scoring that Philadelphia can afford to load-manage him in earnest.
Add it up, and this could be his lowest-minutes, lowest-usage season in recent memory. He went in the 40s a year ago; I have him in the 50s-60s now — a touch higher in two-center or shallow formats, where his per-game ceiling still carries more weight.
VJ Edgecombe
Edgecombe was the rare bright spot, turning in a terrific rookie season: 64th in eight-cat at 16/6/4 with 1.4 steals across 35 minutes. But he's another victim of the one-ball problem. With Embiid, Maxey and George on the floor, his usage dropped seven percent, and his per-36 line in that group — 13/5/4, albeit with a juicy 2.3 steals — tells the story of a young player asked to do less on offense.
His path to holding value runs through defense and spacing. We know he's a disruptive defender and a capable three-point shooter; if he settles into a three-and-D role with some secondary creation, he can survive as a mid-round pick. The steals-and-threes combination is the whole ballgame for him. I'll be targeting him after pick 75 and hoping the role crystallizes.
