This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
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TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
New Orleans Pelicans at Detroit Pistons: In their 10 games since waiving Josh Smith, the Pistons are second in the league in points allowed per possession. The Pistons are 9-1, held six of those opponents below 100 points, and three below 90. They are grabbing well over half the available rebounds, and they are defending beyond the arc at a rate much better than league average. One last factoid: they are allowing the fewest steals per game in the league.
Offenses to Use
Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors: The Raptors are in a slump. Losing three straight away games to Western Conference contenders (Trail Blazers, Warriors, Suns) is forgiveable. Losing to the Hornets without Al Jefferson nor Lance Stephenson – nor even Cody Zeller – is not. They have only held two of their past 11 opponents below 100 points, and they are allowing opponents to score at a per-possession rate that is rivaled only by the Knicks and the Timberwolves. The Raptors are still loads better than the 76ers overall, but the former's stumbling defense makes fantasy opportunity for the latter.
One extra note: for either team, the only players in action Wednesday who will face a tougher-than-average fantasy defense are the 76ers power forwards. The Raptors rank 14th against opposing power forwards. Every other positional matchup is advantageous.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Houston Rockets
Second game of a back-to-back: Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Stephen Curry, GS (vs MIA), PG, ($10,200): I rarely recommend players with a five-figure salary. Even more rare is advocating a player with a tougher-than-average matchup, which Curry faces in the Heat. But Curry is cheaper than usual Wednesday, and there are a ton of discounts available to fill in the roster around him. Over the past four games, Curry has produced an absurdly high 1.56 fantasy points for every minute he spent on the floor – by far the highest such mark for any player averaging more than 20 minutes per game.
Other suggestions: Mike Conley, MEM (at BKN), PG, ($8,200); Patty Mills, SA (at CHA), PG, ($3,500)
Shooting Guard
Wesley Matthews, POR (vs LAC), SG, ($5,700): In three games since hyperextending his knee, Matthews posted 33, 41.5, and 27.5 fantasy points. But it was only Tuesday, after all three, that he went back to practicing without a knee brace. If that's what he can do when hobbled, imagine what he might do now that he is feeling better.
Other suggestions: Lou Williams*, TOR (vs PHI), SG, ($4,700); Klay Thompson, GS (vs MIA), SG, ($7,300); Devyn Marble**, ORL (vs HOU), SG, ($3,600)
* Only if DeMar DeRozan does not play.
** Only if Tobias Harris does not play.
Small Forward
Justin Holiday, GS (vs MIA), SF, ($3,000): Clearly I'm not bothered by loading up on a single team – as long as the players are acquired at a fair-or-better value, I'm interested in them. Holiday has worked his way into a relatively steady role in the Warriors rotation. He has appeared in 11 straight games, and played double-digit minutes in nine of the last 10. He carries significant offensive responsibilities for bench units, which allows him the opportunity to compile fantasy points quickly in limited court time. Because of the inconsistencies in his night-to-night workload, there is a bit of risk in using Holiday. But if Holiday reaches his recent average of nearly 18 minutes per game, then there is a very good chance he'll net daily players a profit.
Other suggestions: Jerami Grant, PHI (at TOR), SF, ($3,000); Draymond Green, GS (vs MIA), SF, ($8,300)
Power Forward
Donatas Motiejunas, HOU (at ORL), PF, ($5,200): Motiejunas has come into his own this season. Adjusting for minutes played each night, Motiejunas is very consistent – across his last 15 games, he ranks more consistent than roughly 80 percent of the league. On top of his per-minute consistency is bargain pricing. He's scored more than 30 fantasy points per game over his last three, which would represent a hefty profit at this price point.
Other suggestions: Zach Randolph, MEM (at BKN), PF, ($7,300)
Center
Meyers Leonard, POR (vs LAC), C, ($3,000): It took injuries to both Robin Lopez and Joel Freeland, but Leonard is finally getting some opportunities in Portland. He's played between 19-21 minutes in each of their last four games, and broken 17 fantasy points in all of them. His production isn't overwhelming, but at minimum salary, he poses almost no risk, and carries a high likelihood of reward.
Other suggestions: JJ Hickson***, DEN (vs DAL), C, ($4,500); Tyson Chandler, DAL (at DEN), C, ($6,400)
*** Only if JaVale McGee does not play.
Other Players Of Note
Kelly Olynyk, BOS (vs ATL), C, ($3,000): I can't "recommend" a player who has scored 11 fantasy points or fewer in five of his last seven games. Olynyk is a risk some people are not going to be willing to take – probably myself included. But take note: Olynyk has spent most of the season with a salary in the $4,500-5,500 range, but that dropped over one and a half grand for Wednesday. The Celtics are balancing more big men than they need, so they often ride the hot hand (and bench the cold one). When Olynyk is playing well, he plays nearly 30 minutes, scores in the mid-teens, and adds some combination of rebounds, assists, and threes. When he plays poorly, he sits. Over his last 10 games, he scored more than 24 fantasy points four times, in addition to those five games below 11. High risk, very high reward potential.
JaKarr Sampson, PHI (at TOR), PF, ($3,000): With Tony Wroten (knee) out, Sampson is expected to take over the backup PG responsibilities Wednesday. It's hard to say with any kind of certainty how much Sampson will benefit from the move, statistically speaking. The role is worth noting, especially because of Sampson's PF eligibility. Like Olynyk, I don't "recommend" Sampson, per se, I just call attention to his unique situation.
INJURY REPORT
Out
Markel Brown (knee)
Deron Williams (ribs)
Mike Dunleavy (ankle)
Doug McDermott (knee)
Al Jefferson (groin)
Randy Foye (quad)
Danilo Gallinari (knee)
Festus Ezeli (ankle)
Terrence Jones (leg)
Josh McRoberts (knee)
Kevin Martin (wrist)
Nikola Pekovic (ankle)
Shabazz Muhammad (abdomen)
Ricky Rubio (ankle)
Aaron Gordon (foot)
Joel Embiid (foot)
Andrei Kirilenko (personal)
Jason Richardson (foot)
Tony Wroten (knee)
Robin Lopez (hand)
Joel Freeland (shoulder)
Kawhi Leonard (hand)
Game-Time Decision
Lance Stephenson (pelvis) is expected to play Wednesday.
Janero Pargo (back) is a game-time decision.
Wilson Chandler (knee) is expected to play Wednesday.
JaVale McGee (leg) gave a best-case timetable for return that would have him play Wednesday, and no update has yet been made.
Dwyane Wade (hamstring) is doubtful after leaving Tuesday's game.
Mike Conley (ankle) is probable.
Tony Allen (hamstring) is probable.
Evan Fournier (knee) is a game-time decision.
Tobias Harris (ankle) is questionable.
Jrue Holiday (ankle) is questionable after leaving Tuesday's game.
Allen Crabbe (knee) is questionable.
DeMar DeRozan (groin) is a game-time decision; he is expected to return either Wednesday or Friday.
Marco Belinelli (groin)
