This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
None: There aren't enough teams in action Thursday to suggest avoiding any of them. The Bulls might have been worth avoiding if they were healthy, but they are missing too many important pieces of their rotation. And those injuries mean opportunities for backups, which outweighs any intimidation factor the Thunder defense may have posed.
Offenses to Use
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers: One stat I track is a player's average salary over their last four games. It provides a quick snapshot of someone's "normal" cost point. Seventeen players in action Thursday have salaries cheaper than the average or their last four games, and eight of those players are on the Mavericks. I've been tracking this data all season, and I don't remember a single time so many players from one team were discounted. Not only are most Mavericks going for cheaper than they've recently been available for, but they also face the easiest of the four defenses playing Thursday. Since the All-Star break, the Trail Blazers have been a bottom-10 defense in opponent points per possession. The Mavericks, Thunder, and Bulls, on the other hand, are all flirting with the top 10 in that category.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Chicago Bulls, Dallas Mavericks
Second game of a back-to-back: Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC (at CHI), PG, ($11,300): The Masked Maniac has recorded four straight triple-doubles, and he did this on Wednesday:
Aaron Brooks, CHI (vs OKC), PG, ($5,400): You know that feeling when you just spent $25 on a product, only to find it available for $15 a few days later? That's how I feel about spending this much money on Brooks on Thursday. Three games ago, Brooks cost a mere $3,400. Thursday's price seems like an unfair overreaction to his 22 points, 38.5 fantasy points outpouring on Tuesday. Unfortunately, however, there just isn't much available by way of better options. Other than the max value players, what other point guard has a real chance at 30 fantasy points? With Derrick Rose (knee) out, Brooks is the starting point guard for the Bulls, and that role can carry significant fantasy value.
Other suggestions: Damian Lillard, POR (at DAL), PG, ($8,100)
Shooting Guard
Wesley Matthews, POR (vs DAL), SG, ($5,600): In six games since the All-Star break, Matthews has posted profitable DraftKings lines five times. The sixth game was against the Grizzlies. The Mavericks' defense may be playing well lately, but they are not the Grizzlies. Matthews could cost $500 more, and I'd still recommend him Thursday, based on his recent production.
Other suggestions: Monta Ellis, DAL (at POR), SG, ($6,800)
Small Forward
Tony Snell, CHI (vs OKC), SF, ($4,000): The other major beneficiary of all of the Bulls' injuries is Snell. In 2015, he has been very good when given extended opportunity filling in for injured stars. There are not many other appealing options at small forward, but even if there were, I would still be honing in on Snell. This price is a bargain.
Other suggestions: None.
Power Forward
Serge Ibaka, OKC (at CHI), PF, ($8,000): Ibaka is a strong, consistent player taking on an injured Bulls frontcourt. He may not be the best bargain available at the position Thursday, but he has the most favorable matchup.
Other suggestions: Nikola Mirotic, CHI (vs OKC), PF, ($5,700)
Center
Joakim Noah, CHI (vs OKC), C, ($7,400): The healthiest man left standing in the Bulls frontcourt has tended to produce in large quantities this season. Right now, that title belongs to Noah, who has totalled 30 or more fantasy points in every game since the All-Star break.
Other suggestions: Enes Kanter, OKC (at CHI), C, ($5,900)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Jimmy Butler (elbow)
Taj Gibson (ankle)
Derrick Rose (knee)
Chandler Parsons (ankle)
Kevin Durant (foot)
Steve Novak (appendix)
Game-Time Decision
Nikola Mirotic (shoulder) is expected to play Thursday.
Tyson Chandler (hip) is probable.
Steven Adams (hand) is day-to-day.
