Hoops Lab: Know the Game

One of my Twitter followers, Ian Zimmerman, sent a tweet the other day that caught my attention:

@RotoWireKyleNBA hey listen to show every day. I like it because you, @MarcFRoberts@ProfessorDrz@RotowireATC@RotoShannon 1/1

— Ian Zimmerman (@mahler3) March 7, 2015

@RotoWireKyleNBA,@MarcFRoberts, @ProfessorDrz and @RotoShannon 2/2 actually like basketball - know the game instead playing fantasy to win $

— Ian Zimmerman (@mahler3) March 7, 2015

Some of the context is readily obvious at a surface glance. Alexis Ajinca put up big numbers last week, why? Because Anthony Davis was injured, creating more playing time for him. Nikola Mirotic is suddenly putting up big scoring numbers even though he's still coming off the bench. Why? Because starting backcourt Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler are out, along with Taj Gibson, and someone needs to help pick up the scoring slack (more on this below, in New Additions). Makes sense.

But in this day and age, with the rise of the analytics approach to basketball analysis, we can go further. For example, I've always been a big proponent of the "impact stats." These stats don't use the boxscore at all, but instead use approaches like +/- or in/out to examine how a team performs when a certain player is on the court with the purpose of correlating the team's success to that player's presence. I'm REALLY into this approach, but I often don't write about it in too much detail because there's no direct tie between +/- stats and fantasy production.

But the other day, after reading Ian's tweet above, I happened to be checking out the 2014 RAPM results over on gotbuckets.com. I was thinking about Draymond Green when I went to the site, because to many his ascension into a fantasy impact player this season came as a complete surprise. So I looked through the top small forwards from last season, according to RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus, one of the best +/- measures available), and this was the top 20:

LeBron James
Andre Iguodala
Kevin Durant
Luol Deng
Kawhi Leonard
Paul George
Jae Crowder
DeMarre Carroll
Kyle Korver
Shane Battier
Matt Barnes
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Jared Dudley
Carmelo Anthony
C.J. Miles
Trevor Ariza
Paul Pierce
Draymond Green
Chandler Parsons
P.J. Tucker

This was a really interesting list to me because all nine of the names in bold have been considered surprise, pick-up worthy forwards this season when their roles give them the opportunity, and some (like Green) have blossomed into full-on fantasy superstars. Considering that Paul George is injured, Shane Battier has retired and that everyone already knew names like LeBron, Durant and Carmelo to be superstars, this outcome is even more surprising and impressive. It tells me that this RAPM list, which is only about how a player impacts his team, made a pretty solid predictor for players of interest this season.

Draymond Green only played about 22 minutes per game last season, and his ranking on the Yahoo Player list was 132nd. But he was having a positive impact on the game, the coaches realized it and gave him a bigger role, and voila. Instant fantasy star.

Now of course, this isn't a fail-safe predictor for fantasy success. But when more and more teams are paying more and more money for advanced analytics -- when Kevin Durant is securing the services of a 1-on-1 personal statistician and partially credits that with his MVP from last season ...

Meet The Personal Stats Analyst Who Helped Kevin Durant Win The MVP | I don't even watch basketball and this was a… http://t.co/yL5f8YNA8C

— Brian Kung (@briankung) March 8, 2015

• Durant evaluation coming soon:Kevin Durant is scheduled to have his injured foot evaluated early this week. The Thunder said he is progressing as expected in his recovery from his second foot procedure and that this evaluation will be key in determining whether he can return to the court soon.

There's the obvious interest in the health of arguably the best player in fantasy, but with the absurd fantasmigorical rise of Russell Westbrook in Durant's absence the intrigue of his return just increases. Westbrook's streak of triple-doubles and huge scoring outputs has his performance mentioned in the same sentence with Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, Oscar Robertson and Larry Bird. So, what will Durant's return do to Westbrook's brilliant season?

Plus, Westbrook's play has raised the question in the media of whether he might actually be better than Durant. And in the age of the new, non-politically correct Durant, this can spark reactions like Durant calling an internet troll a ... Richard-head ...

Kevin Durant to a kid who said Westbrook is better than him. "We play on the same team, Dickhead. Who cares."

— Only The NBA (@OnlyTheNBA) March 1, 2015

• Griffin on the verge of return:Blake Griffin is getting close to return as well. There was some speculation that Griffin's elbow might be recovered in time for him to play Sunday, which wasn't the case, but either way it is anticipated that he is back sometime in the next week. Like Durant and Westbrook, Griffin's absence allowed Chris Paul to explode. Paul likely will take a step back when Griffin returns, as will DeAndre Jordan who has dominated the middle.

•Walker return impending but Mo is safe: Another star on the verge of returning is Kemba Walker, whose knee has recovered enough that he has been cleared to resume practice. Initial estimates have Walker returning some time during the Hornets' West Coast road trip, which would put his return in about two weeks, though this is not set in stone. One thing that has been set is that Mo Williams, who has played so brilliantly in Walker's absence, will not be moved out of the starting lineup once Walker returns. Instead, coach Steve Clifford said he plans to start Williams and Walker together.

•Vucevic's ankle and Oladipo's ascension:Nikola Vucevic is day-to-day with a sore left ankle. He missed Friday's game and Sunday's, as well. Vucevic has turned in a front-line effort as a fantasy center this season. Dewayne Dedmon replaced Vucevic in the starting lineup, but this is expected to be temporary, so Dedmon doesn't require much attention at the moment. Vucevic's absence has corresponded with the rise of Victor Oladipo, who exploded for 92 points in his last three games -- he had 32 points with 10 assists, five steals and three rebounds Friday.

•Wade playing better but still unreliable:Dwyane Wade has played very well lately, averaging 22.8 points, 4.3 boards, 5.8 assists and 2.8 steals in the last four games he was able to play. But therein lies the rub, as Wade sat Friday with a sore hip and was questionable for Saturday's game, as well. Wade ended up playing in that one, and had a great game (28 points, 10-for-18 FG, 7-for-7 FT, four boards, four assists, two steals in 35 minutes), but the uncertainty of when he'll play makes it difficult to rely on him. If you have him this season, ride it out as best you can, but as was addressed Thursday on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius/XM radio, it is difficult to see Wade as a player I will pick again on any future team.

•Ailing Heat: Speaking of the Heat, they are beset by injury. In addition to Wade's hip, they are also dealing with injuries to Luol Deng, Goran Dragic and Zoran Dragic (plus the long-term issues with Chris Bosh and Josh McRoberts).

The most fantasy-worthy of those Heat injuries is to starting point guard Goran Dragic, who took a hard fall Friday against the Wizards and was forced to sit Saturday. In Dragic's words, "When I move laterally, it's like someone put a knife in it." There is no prediction for how long Dragic might be out, but in the meantime Shabazz Napier started in his absence Saturday while Mario Chalmers got 34 minutes off the bench and responded with 12 points, seven assists, five boards and four steals.

The other major Heat injury is Deng, who has missed two games in a row with a thigh bruise. The injury is not considered serious, and Deng is questionable to play on Monday.

•Matthews done with Achilles' tear:Wesley Matthews is done for the year with a torn Achilles' tendon. His absence is a blow to both the Trail Blazers and to his fantasy owners. The Blazers are in a better position, though, since they traded for Arron Afflalo, who moved directly into Matthews' spot in the lineup. Afflalo didn't do a whole lot in his debut as the starter Saturday, but he should be worth some solid production. As I tweeted immediately after the injury,

Wesley Matthews being out for the season with torn Achilles means run, don't walk to go pick up Arron Afflalo#fantasybasketball#DFS

— Andre Snellings (@ProfessorDrz) March 6, 2015

Nicolas Batum has also played well lately and could take on a larger offensive role.

New Additions

•Ersan Ilyasova (51 percent owned in Yahoo Leagues): Ilyasova has played well lately, though his moves into and out of the starting lineup are somewhat difficult because they make his production harder to predict. Nevertheless, in the last five games he has averaged a solid 14.6 points, 7.0 boards and 2.0 treys.

•Nikola Mirotic (44 percent owned): Mirotic has taken advantage of injuries to the other Bulls (e.g. Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson) to move into one of the primary offensive roles for the team. Mirotic has averaged 21.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.4 treys and 1.2 blocks in his last five games.

•Isaiah Canaan (27 percent owned): Canaan has emerged, as expected, as the starting point guard for the 76ers. While the team is going nowhere but the lottery, Canaan is now in the role that provided great fantasy numbers to Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten before him. Canaan has averaged 18.3 points, 5.3 assists, 3.8 boards and a whopping 4.5 treys in his last four games.

Keeping up with the Professor

If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the RotoWire Fantasy Basketball Podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on CLNS Radio about once a month.