Hoops Lab: Who's Up Next?

Last week I wrote about the importance of knowing the game, and how it might be possible to use advanced stats to try to predict which players might be ready for a fantasy breakout. I used Draymond Green as an example who scored well among forwards in Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM) last season, better than he did in the Yahoo Rankings as an actual player since he only played about 22 minutes per game. My hypothesis was that, since NBA teams are paying more and more attention to analytics, they might note that the team plays better when certain players are on the court and therefore give them bigger minutes/larger roles.

As a follow-up to that article, as usual, I went on the Rotowire Fantasy Sports show on Sirius/XM radio as a guest on Thursday. Host Chris Liss talked with me about the article, then came with the natural follow-up…who's next? The question caught me a little bit off guard because I hadn't really looked at this year's numbers yet. In fact, it is difficult to get RAPM numbers for a season until it is close to the end because the stat needs quite a bit of data for any kind of accuracy.

But this morning, as I was going through one of the basketball message boards that I hang out on, I saw a message from Lorak (a poster on RealGM) who pointed out that EvanZ (a poster on the APBRmetrics stats board) had just released his most recent updates on his RAPM calculation. The timing was perfect, so I decided to take a look at those numbers and see if I could predict some fantasy breakout candidates for next season.

Here are a list of players that were not drafted among the top 85 players (by average) in Yahoo drafts this season that all measure in the top-50 overall in this particular RAPM study that I thought might be worth further discussion:

Khris Middleton (6th overall)
Anthony Morrow (14th)
C.J. Miles (15th)
Lou Williams (19th)
Markieff Morris (20th)
J.J. Redick (25th)
Patty Mills (30th)
Ben McLemore (31st)
Robert Covington (36th)
Terrence Jones (37th)
Aron Baynes (38th)
Jusuf Nurkic (39th)
Cody Zeller (40th)
Cory Jefferson (42nd)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (45th)
James Johnson (47th)
Timofey Mozgov (48th)

There are some interesting names on the list. Middleton is currently ranked No. 41 by Yahoo based on his production this season, so you could argue that he has already started breaking out. But he's hardly a household name, he is unlikely, in my opinion, to go in the mid-4th round next season (which is where that No. 41 ranking would argue his value is), and he's been even better than that over the last month (ranked No. 30 by Yahoo) as his role has started to increase for the Bucks.

McLemore is one that catches my eye because he is so young, and I'm actually surprised that his current impact appears to be so large. He's been a streaky shooter with not-that-impressive volume, but he's also only a second-year player, so he should have upside. He also has had a higher percentage of good games since new head coach George Karl took over, which could bode well for him in magical season three next year.

Jones was a sleeper candidate this season, as he's a known talent that had just been a little slow to develop before having his best season last year. Injuries derailed most of his season, but he's been a machine since he returned (ranked No. 27 by Yahoo over the last month) and could be a monster next season.

I thought that Nurkic would break out this season after Mozgov was traded to Cleveland, but instead the young center has just been treading water. But he's still been having a very positive impact on the Nuggets, and if they give him the job next season then he looks intriguing.

The final name I'll discuss further here is Kidd-Gilchrist, who was the No. 2 overall pick a few years ago and seems to be coming into his own this year. He was drafted as a mega-athlete that could already play NBA defense, and it seems like he is now adding a bit of offensive skill to his outstanding athleticism.

Just a few names to look at. It'll be interesting to look back at this article next season and see if any of the names above match up with the Draymond Green of the 2016 season. By the way, Green is third overall on that RAPM list for this season, so his impact stats agree that his fantasy explosion this season, and it's paying big dividends for his real squad as well.

Around the League:

LeBron's knee:LeBron James fell awkwardly on Sunday night and tweaked his knee, though he was able to remain in the game. He is undergoing further tests on the knee Monday, and is a game-time decision for Monday's game against the Heat.

Increase in the DNP – Rest among vets: On Sunday, Kevin Love sat out to rest. So did Jeff Teague. Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler did as well. Joakim Noah played, but he's still on a minutes restriction. Kevin Garnett has missed the last several games in a distinction that many believe to be DNP – road game. The Warriors sat pretty much their whole starting lineup Friday, and the Hawks did the same a few days earlier.

While teams have been more conscious of resting their vets all season, we have entered the part of the season where it really doesn't behoove teams to push their veterans to the wire. If they're playoff contenders, they want their vets to be fresh. If not, then there's no point in burning the vet out for a team going nowhere. Either way, it's incumbent on you to be even more vigilant about your teams because the vets might sit at any given time.

Griffin's return:Blake Griffin returned Sunday from a staph infection in his elbow that had caused him to miss the last six weeks. He did not seem to be on any particular minutes restrictions, as he played a team-high 41 minutes in his first outing. Deploy him as usual.

Drummond's concussion:Andre Drummond suffered a concussion on Saturday that caused him to have to leave the game. There is no projection yet as to how much time he might miss, and concussions are difficult to predict. If he has to miss time, it would seem likely that Greg Monroe will move into the center role more often in a small-ball look.

MCW's ankle:Michael Carter-Williams was a late scratch Saturday night because of an ankle issue. Presumably the injury was fairly minor because there wasn't much word of it before game-time, but consider him day-to-day.

Gay's knee:Rudy Gay didn't play Saturday night due to a strained left patellar tendon. There is no timetable for his return, but he is considered highly questionable to play Monday. Omri Casspi got the start in his place Saturday, but only played 15 minutes while Derrick Williams (34 minutes) and Nik Stauskas (23 minutes) both played more off the bench.

Knight's ankle:Brandon Knight missed his third consecutive game Sunday due to a sprained ankle. The current expectation is that Knight will be back for the Suns' next game Thursday against the Pelicans, so Sunday may have been P.J. Tucker's last start at the shooting guard slot.

Conley's body:Mike Conley had to sit out Saturday with an ankle issue, one of many maladies that has slowed him down. He has injuries to his ankle, neck and back which have caused him to miss several games and has opened it up for Beno Udrih to get some starts.

Korver's shnoz:Kyle Korver broke his nose Sunday against the Lakers. He was already scheduled to be rested Monday, and it is possible that he will be ready to return, likely with a mask, on Wednesday.

Ginobili's ankle:Manu Ginobili is expected to miss the next 7-to-10 days with a sprained right ankle. Ginobili has had a few ouchy injuries of late, and with his extreme veteran status on the Spurs, it is likely that they will err on the side of over-resting him if it comes to that.

Evans back on Sunday:Tyreke Evans returned Sunday from the ankle injury that had sidelined him for the past week. He came up one rebound shy of a triple-double with 25 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds in 43 minutes. You can deploy him as usual.

New Additions

Matt Barnes (44 percent owned in Yahoo leagues): Barnes is a shooter that can also contribute mildly in steals and points. He's averaging 14.5 points with three treys and 2.3 combined steals and blocks over the last week.

Aaron Brooks (39 percent owned): Brooks was the logical perimeter player to step up in the absence of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler. He started slowly, and he's very inconsistent, but when he's on his production is brilliant. He's scored at least 22 points in three of his last five games and has eight treys and 19 assists over that span as well.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (34 percent owned): I mentioned Kidd-Gilchrist in the lead, and he is in the midst of making himself into an excellent defender (he came out this week and said that he wants to be the best defensive player ever, so he's certainly ambitious). But even this season he has proven to be fantasy relevant. Over the last month he's averaging 13.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.8 blocks per game while shooting 50.8 percent from the field, 74.4 percent from the line and only losing 0.3 turnovers per game.

Randy Foye (34 percent owned): Foye has been starting the last five games or so, and he's been intermittent with his production. But he can get hot and light it up in a hurry. He has three games with at least three treys, two games with 20 points, and two games with at least seven assists in his last four outings.

Alexey Shved (31 percent owned): Shved moved into the starting lineup when Tim Hardaway Jr. got hurt, and even with Hardaway back, Shved is holding onto his minutes and putting up big numbers. Over the last week he's averaging 17 points, 6.5 boards, 4.8 assists, 2.5 treys and one steal per game.

Ray McCallum (9 percent owned): I got this Tweet (@ProfessorDrz) today from Thomas Dy:

@ProfessorDrz drop jack for mcallum?

— Thomas Dy (@tjdy05) March 15, 2015

Keeping up with the Professor

If you're interested in my takes throughout the week, you can follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210. I also co-host the Rotowire fantasy basketball podcast with Kyle McKeown once a week and co-host the Celtics Beat podcast on CLNS Radio about once a month.