The Prospect Post: Does Winning In The Tournament Matter?

This article aims to provide an ongoing evaluation of the NBA's rookie class from a fantasy standpoint while also offering deep dives on college players with bright futures. Projecting young talent is very subjective, so an open dialogue is encouraged, both in the comments section and on Twitter: @RealJRAnderson

With the Final Four coming this weekend, fantasy basketball owners will get a glimpse of nine potential top-20 picks in this year's draft. Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor are the consensus top-two picks. Justise Winslow could go as high as No. 3 and could get his name in the discussion for the top-two if he continues his torrid play over the next two games. Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Devin Booker would all be top-20 picks if they choose to leave Kentucky. Frank Kaminsky is the likely national player of the year and should be a lottery pick. Sam Dekker and Tyus Jones can also push their names into the lottery with a strong showing this weekend.

So how much weight should be given to the performances of these nine players in this weekend's games for their fantasy futures? How much credit should they already be given for their teams advancing this far? Let's take a look at the top players in fantasy basketball this season who attended college for at least one year (from Yahoo!'s Top-50 for H2H leagues) and see if any conclusions can be made.

Never Made An NCAA Tournament

Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard, Paul Millsap, Trevor Ariza, Chris Bosh, George Hill

Conclusion: Other than Ariza, who went to UCLA for one season before leaving to be a second round pick in 2004, all of these players went to traditionally unsuccessful basketball programs. Millsap, Ariza and Hill were all second-round picks, so the case can definitely be made that their current status as strong fantasy options is more a credit to their hard work since reaching the NBA than any overwhelming pedigree they possessed in college. Thompson, Lillard and Bosh's failure to make the tournament despite all being lottery picks showcases how hard it is to be a one-man show in college basketball.

Never Made A Sweet 16

James Harden, Kevin Durant, Jrue Holiday, Nikola Vucevic, Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, Derrick Favors

Conclusion: These players probably got a worse rap than the players who didn't make the tourney at all because everyone got to see them get bounced early on national TV. In fact, I distinctly remember loving Harden as a prospect throughout his sophomore year, and then downgrading him slightly in my head because of his inability to take his Arizona State team to the second weekend of the NCAA tournament. Clearly this was a mistake on my part, just like it would have been a massive error to hold Durant's lack of tournament success against him. A higher percentage of the great players currently in the league who played in college made a Sweet 16 than did not, but not winning a couple games in the tournament should certainly not be a reason to downgrade a prospect.

Made A Sweet 16

Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Kyrie Irving, Brook Lopez, Tim Duncan, Kyle Lowry, Rudy Gay, Blake Griffin, Eric Bledsoe

This is a loaded group. It's insane to think that a team with Cousins, Wall and Bledsoe couldn't get to a Final Four, but again, that just illustrates how easy it is to lose one game in the NCAA tournament. That said, more often than not high-end NBA talent will win the day and push teams to the second weekend of the tournament.

Made A Final Four

Russell Westbrook (2x), Draymond Green (2x), Kevin Love, Gordon Hayward, Mike Conley, Brandon Knight, Darren Collison (3x)

Three of the players in this group (Westbrook, Love and Collison) played for UCLA in the mid-2000s, combining forces to elevate each other into this class. Legitimate conclusions probably should have been drawn by the fantasy masses with regard to Green, Hayward and even Collison. Obviously making a Final Four does not immediately mean you will have a long NBA career, but players taken in the first round of the draft who may not wow people athletically usually have a little something extra. Green's value to a team was evident at Michigan State, as he had multiple triple-doubles as a power forward, and was routinely a part of overachieving teams. That intangible value is what led to the Warriors giving him a huge role this year under improved leadership, and anyone who continued to believe in Green's versatile skillset and high basketball IQ was rewarded.

Won A National Title

Anthony Davis, Al Horford (2x), Kemba Walker, Danny Green, Carmelo Anthony, Gorgui Dieng

This is the ultimate hodgepodge of players, with the best player alive surrounded by a veteran big man, a shoot first point guard, a three-and-D specialist and a young defense-oriented center. The takeaway here is that there should be no difference in how a player from a championship team is valued coming into the league versus the way players in any of these other tiers are valued.

So while you are sitting around this weekend watching the Final Four, there is no denying that you are watching up to nine top-20 picks in this year's draft, but it is also worth noting that their teams advancing this far in the tournament has almost nothing to do with the fact that they are top-20 picks. Players like Towns, Winslow and Dekker have helped themselves with strong play in the tournament, but they were all going to be top-20 picks prior to the tournament, so this postseason success will have zero impact on what kind of fantasy contributors they become.

Side note:

While I don't believe the success of these player's teams over the next three games will impact how we should view them in a fantasy context, it will undoubtedly impact the draft stock of four players in particular. The battle for the No. 1 overall pick between Okafor and Towns, with Winslow being the dark horse, could very well be decided in the Final Four. NBA owners often get a pretty big say in who the team takes with a No. 1 overall pick, and if Towns stimies Okafor in the title game, that will go a long way toward him landing atop a lot of draft boards. Similarly, if Duke wins the title and it is clear that Winslow is the best player on the court against Kentucky, he could also make a sneaky push for the top spot.

The final player whose stock could reasonably fall anywhere from No. 6 to No. 20 based on his performance Saturday is Kaminsky. He will be going against the two best defensive big men in the land in Cauley-Stein and Towns, so if he gets completely shut down, and looks like he doesn't belong on the same court as the Wildcats' big men, he could fall out of the lottery. On the other hand, if he can use his quickness and footwork in the post to get the better of Kentucky's seven footers more often than not, that could convince some NBA teams that his post dominance will translate to the next level, pushing him inside the top-10 on draft day.