This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks: The Bulls are back to full health and back to playing the defense that many thought would make them a championship contender this year. Both of these teams prefer to play a slower-paced game and that translates into lower scores. This game has the lowest total by over 10 points and it is 20 points below most of the other series. It should be the one game where neither team gets near 100 points today, and the Bulls are favored to win this one. Therefore, they are projected to give up the least amount of points, and that is why I would avoid the Bucks players against them.
Offenses to Use
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics: The Cavaliers are one of the most balanced and potent offenses in the NBA. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, and even J.R. Smith are all capable of putting up 30 real life points on a given day. The Celtics do not match up very well with what the Cavaliers have on the offensive end, and any or all of these guys could go off for a big game. We have not seen the Cavaliers' patent blowout win yet this series, and I think they are due for putting a hurting on the Celtics. When Cleveland is motivated to go get a win, there's little most teams can do defensively to slow them down. They are projected for 104 points today, and I think they could exceed that easily.
There are no back-to-backs in the playoffs.
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Tyreke Evans, PG, NOP ($7,400): Evans loves playing in the uptempo games. He gets a matchup with Stephen Curry today who is smaller and not known for his defense on the ball. Evans attacks the basket like a bull in a china shop. He is so physically strong and athletic that bodies tend to bounce off of him on his way to the rim. In an uptempo game, and with fellow ball handler Jrue Holiday highly questionable, I think Evans will play a ton of minutes and again come close to the near triple double he had last time out (16 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists).
Other suggestions: Kyrie Irving ($8,100) CLE vs. BOSI; Derrick Rose ($7,500) CHI vs. MIL;
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, SG, CHI ($8,000): Butler is really really good in case you did not know already. He was playing at an MVP level before being injured earlier this season. The way he has looked so far in the playoffs only reminds me of that insanely productive stretch. He has averaged over 40 minutes and 42 fantasy points in his last three games. They do not call him Jimmy Minutes for no reason. He should see close to 40 again tonight in a game that is expected to stay close throughout. He can score fantasy points in so many ways that he has a really safe floor unless he gets injured or into foul trouble.
Other suggestions: Khris Middleton ($6,000) MIL vs. CHI; Eric Gordon ($5,200) NOP vs. GSW
Small Forward
LeBron James, SF, Cle ($10,700): This is LeBron James' time now folks, and that man is not playing around. The regular season is over, and LeBron is averaging 42 minutes through two playoff games so far. He is taking 20 shots per game, averaging 25 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.0 steal, and 1.5 blocks in 42 minutes per game. He shot poorly and scored 20 in the first game, then shot well and had 30 in the second. 25 points, seven rebounds, seven assists, and two combined blocks/steals is a conservative floor today for King James. That creates a floor of about 48 DK points for him with unlimited upside since the Celtics really have no answer for his combination of size, speed, athleticism, and skill. Others wrote him off during the season for not making value, but that was the 32 minute a game LeBron, and this is the 40+ minute motivated version. Small forward is weak today, so good luck finding someone else who can get you this level of production.
Other suggestions: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($6,100) MIL vs. CHI
Power Forward
Draymond Green, PF, GSW ($7900): Before anyone gets all antsy, notice I did include Anthony Davis in the other suggestions section, and let me explain the two reasons here why Green is the better play. The first one is price. While it is possible to build a LeBron James/Anthony Davis lineup, it eats up almost half of your available cap space and leaves you less than $5,000 per each open roster spot. Green is $3,000 cheaper and will produce very near to his counterpart today. The second reason is the value metric of points per $1,000 of cost. I can see Green doing what he did in the first two games and finishing with about 48 fantasy points as he has averaged. At his cost of $7,900, that is over six points per $1,000 of cost. Davis has back-to-back games where he cracked the 50-point barrier. He gets closer to 52 fantasy points per game. At his price of $10,900, it would only equate to under five points per $1,000. When you factor in that you have a stronger team if you have more money to build around Green, I think it makes sense. You can easily make up the three point difference between the averages of these two so far with the $3,000 you have left to upgrade other positions.
Other suggestions: Anthony Davis ($10,900) NOP vs. GSW, Jae Crowder ($4,300) BOS vs. CLE
Center
Andrew Bogut, C, GSW ($6,600): I think people forgot how good the former No. 1 overall pick can be when he is healthy enough to remain on the floor. Bogut is a huge defensive presence in the middle for the Warriors. He has grabbed 14 rebounds per game and has four combined blocks/steals so far in the playoffs. The guy who sat out every few games and never played over 25 minutes during the regular season is now playing over 30 minutes per night and producing in that time. He is averaging 39.5 fantasy points so far in the playoffs which would be a return of six points per $1,000 of salary on DK. That kind of production keeps you on pace for 300 points and cashes in your tournaments tonight.
Other suggestions: Joakim Noah ($6,100) CHI vs. MIL; Tyler Zeller ($3,900) BOS vs. CLE
INJURY REPORT
Out
David Lee (back)
James McAdoo (illness)
Nikola Mirotic (quad)
Game-Time Decision
Jrue Holiday (leg) was very limited in practice yesterday, and coach Monty Williams' words were not optimistic about his chances of playing.
Kirk Hinrich (knee) is expected to play.
