Category Strategy: Week 1

Category Strategy: Week 1

This article is part of our Category Strategy series.

The first week of the regular season will provide many wacky performances from unheralded players that will leave fantasy managers prematurely flocking to the waiver wire. Now's your chance to beat the traffic by poaching said breakout players prior to the bottleneck. Objectively, I wouldn't get too attached to any of them, as you can use the last spot on your team to stream players based on schedule.

I will spotlight players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and 45 percent of ESPN leagues. As of Oct. 24, the top 150 players by ownership percentage in Yahoo leagues topped 50 percent and the top 130 players by ownership percentage in ESPN leagues cleared 45 percent. Each site defaults to 13-man rosters, but Yahoo's standard leagues utilize 12 teams as opposed to ESPN's 10-team settings. Expect the thresholds to fluctuate as the season progresses and idle owners exhibit static rosters.

POINTS

I could name anyone and they'll likely provide serviceable and inconsistent scoring off the waiver wire. The trick is to ride a hot streak and sell high before the market crashes. I'll consult true shooting percentages during hot streaks to gauge sustainability. League average true shooting sits around 53 percent; elite is close to 63 percent. Only superstars, three-point specialists and dunkers can maintain an elite true shooting number.

Gerald Green (SG, SF)
(Ownership percentages: Yahoo - 33; ESPN - 13.7)

Green set the preseason on fire and led the Heat with 17.8 points in 22 minutes

The first week of the regular season will provide many wacky performances from unheralded players that will leave fantasy managers prematurely flocking to the waiver wire. Now's your chance to beat the traffic by poaching said breakout players prior to the bottleneck. Objectively, I wouldn't get too attached to any of them, as you can use the last spot on your team to stream players based on schedule.

I will spotlight players owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues and 45 percent of ESPN leagues. As of Oct. 24, the top 150 players by ownership percentage in Yahoo leagues topped 50 percent and the top 130 players by ownership percentage in ESPN leagues cleared 45 percent. Each site defaults to 13-man rosters, but Yahoo's standard leagues utilize 12 teams as opposed to ESPN's 10-team settings. Expect the thresholds to fluctuate as the season progresses and idle owners exhibit static rosters.

POINTS

I could name anyone and they'll likely provide serviceable and inconsistent scoring off the waiver wire. The trick is to ride a hot streak and sell high before the market crashes. I'll consult true shooting percentages during hot streaks to gauge sustainability. League average true shooting sits around 53 percent; elite is close to 63 percent. Only superstars, three-point specialists and dunkers can maintain an elite true shooting number.

Gerald Green (SG, SF)
(Ownership percentages: Yahoo - 33; ESPN - 13.7)

Green set the preseason on fire and led the Heat with 17.8 points in 22 minutes per game. His true shooting mark was a hair above 60 percent, nearly 1.5 percentage points above his incredible 2013-14 season. Roughly 42 percent of his preseason points were scored in the fourth quarter, and that late-game playing time is not something that should transfer into the regular season. He recorded more turnovers (11) than assists (eight) in eight games, a ringing endorsement of his shooting predilection. It will be difficult to find a spot for him in your lineup this week because two of the Heat's three games occur on nights with at least 12 games. If you're in a weekly moves league, consider scarcely owned Derrick Williams or Nate Robinson.

REBOUNDS

Kyle O'Quinn (PF)
(Ownership percentages: Yahoo - 27; ESPN - 3.8)

It is my mission to get O'Quinn owned in at least 50 percent of active fantasy leagues this season. He's rotisserie friendly, as evidenced by his 49-percent mark from the field and 77-percent accuracy from the free-throw line last season. While most of his value resides in the blocks category, his unique skill set as the second unit center will offer a handful of assists, steals and maybe one or two three-pointers in a weekly matchup. In 21 minutes per game during the preseason season, O'Quinn grabbed a team-high 8.4 boards per game and recorded two double-doubles in five games. He's slated to come off the bench, and increased time at center bodes well for his multi-categorical production.

ASSISTS

Finding adequate assists off the waiver wire can be futile. Occasionally, you'll get a week or two of a backup point guard thrust into a bigger role, but that doesn't always guarantee inflated dimes. Many wings and bigs are capable of thrifting a few cheap assists, with players like Joakim Noah and Zach Randolph come to mind.

Jeremy Lin (PG)
(Ownership percentages: Yahoo - 50; ESPN - 52.4)

I'm loosening the restrictions on my previously stated edict based on his ownership level in ESPN leagues - one which recently climbed 21 percent. Two of the Hornets' three games this week come against the Hawks. In two games against the Hawks last year, Lin shot a season-high 69 percent from the field and dished out 10 assists. His fantasy value extends beyond the first week as head coach Steve Clifford has shown a willingness to play Lin with Kemba Walker. Lin could have been used in the points or three-pointer category, and that would have allowed me to recommend Mo Williams in this slot. Both guards tend to seek their own shot before distributing, but as primary ballhandlers, they'll have plenty of assist opportunities.

STEALS

Corey Brewer (SG/SF)
(Ownership percentage: Yahoo - 12; ESPN - 8.5)

Brewer is the quintessential gambler on defense. Like Russell Westbrook and Monta Ellis, if you rack up high steal numbers, the casual fan can make some unwieldy assumptions about your defensive prowess. Last year, Brewer averaged 1.4 steals in 26 minutes per game and during the preseason, he had a team-high 2.3 in 23 minutes per game. He's abnormally durable given his slender frame, missing 10 games over the past four seasons, and he gleefully uncorks fullcourt, end-of-quarter three-pointers, hoisting eight attempts last season. If you garner a longterm solution, search for Aaron Gordon on the waiver wire; he's owned in 60 percent of Yahoo leagues and 22.7 percent of ESPN leagues.

BLOCKS

Ian Mahinmi (C)
(Ownership percentages: Yahoo - 17; ESPN - 4)

Head coach Frank Vogel is keen on deploying a true rim-protecting center alongside Paul George at power forward. Though Vogel won't use George there during the team's first game against Zach Randolph and the Memphis Grizzlies, Mahinmi has situated himself into the starting lineup with a solid preseason showing. Mahinmi spent the summer improving his hands and working on his free throws in preparation for the new role. He's prone to foul trouble and only hit 47 percent of his free-throw attempts during the preseason, but his 2.2 blocks in 21 minutes per games displays his lethal ability to swat shots. In an interesting development, Mahinmi sank five of his six mid-range attempts in the preseason. His understudy, rookie Myles Turner, is owned in 34 percent of Yahoo leagues and 46.4 percent of ESPN leagues and possesses significant long-term fantasy appeal.

THREE-POINTERS

There are very few players not attempting three-pointers in the NBA anymore. It's the most pervasive and easily accessible stat on the waiver wire. During the preseason, Richard Jefferson and Drew Gooden attempted more than four three-pointers per game; Kris Humphries and Jerami Grant were chucking more than three threes per contest. You'll find willing shooters on the wire. However, ardent chuckers typically boast poor field goal percentage.

Isaiah Canaan (PG)
(Ownership percentages: Yahoo - 18; ESPN - 9.4)

Head coach Brett Brown indicated earlier in the preseason that he wants to carry three point guards on the roster. Assuming Canaan, Tony Wroten (knee) and Kendall Marshall (knee) make the cut, T.J. McConnell, Scottie Wilbekin and Pierre Jackson will be clawing for a roster spot. After the Sixers acquired Canaan last season, he attempted 7.4 three-pointers in 26 minutes per game, second only to Stephen Curry. A prolonged Robert Covington (knee) absence increases the need for Canaan and Hollis Thompson, a career 40-percent three-point shooter, to shoot. The Sixers are saddled with two games this week, both of which occur on nights with at least 12 games. If you seek immediate volume, consider Doug McDermott (owned in less than 10 percent on both host sites) because the Bulls play four times the first week. However, he ceded playing time to Tony Snell over the last three preseason games, made six of his final 26 three-point attempts, and he routinely fires away from at least three feet behind the line.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
J.J. Calle
J.J. Calle is a fantasy basketball prognosticator with mesmerizing hair who also aggregates obscure stats. Allegiances reside with the New York Knicks, New York Mets, Houston Texans, Penn State Nittany Lions, St. John's Red Storm, and Gael Monfils.
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